Black Mountain Resources Share Discussion Threads

[liquid millionaire] 19/2/2014 12:25

Jungmana 19 Feb'14 - 10:15 - 386588 of 386610 2 0

If BMZ sack Peter Landau tomorrow it will jump 100% imo. That man is one big drag on that company.
Just look at his record in COOL and RRL.



Could not agree more Jungmana. Until he goes and BMZ actually start being a producer [over a year late!] then imo BMZ will unfortunately be held back.

[29howard] 19/2/2014 11:03

Looks like nobody listens to you anymore topinfo, all your ramping here and on other stocks gets ignored time to get yourself along the jobcentre and sign on !

[kiwimonk] 19/2/2014 11:01

if you are so worried, why do you post? thanks for your concern though. Now get back to your next school lesson you halfwit

[billesk102] 19/2/2014 09:45

UKMassy,they/he,think they may influence people to buy.A gang of naive illiterates.Landau has given this the kiss of death.

[billesk102] 19/2/2014 09:38

Kiss of death Landau has rendered all you ludricous rampers impotent.You lose!

[topinfo] 19/2/2014 08:35

Lilac I think you can delete the thread m8.

[kiwimonk] 19/2/2014 07:53

This is Going to Shift

[ukmassy] 19/2/2014 01:00

Lilac and Buynow, why are you talking to yourself?

[buyn0w] 18/2/2014 22:21

SIlver closed on the highs.

[lilaclily] 18/2/2014 22:08

Any chance of flag counter here..

[lilaclily] 18/2/2014 21:56

How.. Or just stop posting here?

[bains123] 18/2/2014 21:50

Yes please lets shut this thread down!

[lilaclily] 18/2/2014 21:43

Just proved it coward, the multiple handles you have been using.

[lilaclily] 18/2/2014 21:40

Fellas you all been busy, been away at work.
Rest want this shut down too? I do agree with Tops view about banning.

[opaldouglas] 18/2/2014 20:36

Topinfo - If anything I think BMZ offers more value now given the deterioration in Mcap over the last year and my expectations for the price of silver in the long term.

I am realistic though and given the very slow progress to date expect we'll be waiting until next year for Conjecture to come online and who knows about Tabor.

Again... to emphasis a good opportunity but over the long term.

OD

[ukmassy] 18/2/2014 19:37

Sportsauto/Lilaclilly and Buyitnow, all the same person.

[topinfo] 18/2/2014 19:21

Well if you bought at 12p+ and its still offers the same upside then it just goes to show how good an opportunity it is at circa 5p doesnt it. Thanks opaldouglas for sharing that m8 and jungmana.

[jungmana] 18/2/2014 19:18

DouglasYou spot on there. Majority of post over last two weeks has been constant repetitive hot air with no substance by one or two posters.No wonder most of the long termers who know the story here have been quiet lately.BMZ management need a good kicking imo for investors to take this company seriously as they have wasted 2 years.

[opaldouglas] 18/2/2014 19:03

sportsauto - re your earlier post, if only BMZ could have stuck to programme!

For what its worth BMZ have been my worse performing investment of this financial year. I originally bought in circa 12p.

That said, I still have a large holding here and haven't sold out as I genuinely think BMZ have a cracking set of assets and in the long term will do very nicely if silver stays around current levels or higher. The infrastructure at Conjecture alone is worth something like $37M in todays money and the possibility of resources upgrades are tremendous along with high grade silver deposits.

No doubting volumes have increased significantly in the past few trading days, just a shame the people aren't focussing on the quality of posts on this bb as opposed to the quantity - most of which aren't worth reading.

OD

[topinfo] 18/2/2014 18:37

Silver high of the session. I get the feeling there is a huge BOOM coming in the price of silver and we could see $30 pretty damn quick and much more than that to come over next several weeks.

[sportsauto] 18/2/2014 17:52

Another

Looking back at previous posts from last year( could easily apply this year) on this thread.
Economics of the mines look excellent. Cost are low c$10 so still very profitable at todays silver price and a MUCH lower MCAP.
Delays happen, mining is complex .BMZ today is FULLY FUNDED and Production is about to begin.
Share in issue c100m , mcap c£5m , Same silver assets, FULLY FUNDED and ONLY 5.5p to buy today.

Just forecasts but shows the POTENTIAL. imo dyor nai
Many expect Silver rise in 2014!

Example 2


V1d 1 Feb'13 - 00:40 - 940 of 2219 0 0

Opaldouglas

As far as I can see, the forecast production figures have increased – ND up from 100tpd to 200-250 tpd and C up from 150tpd to 300-400tpd. The start of production from ND is also still on course for 1Q2013, and seeing that we are already one-third of the way through the first quarter, this really should be accurate. The drilling results released earlier also support the historical grades quoted.

Although the forecast cash outflow in the first quarter is less than the cash in hand, it will leave the company running on fumes unless there is a (very small) placement or they can organise the proposed prepaid offtake agreement. The dilution risk is therefore minimal.

I have entered the minimum production figures ND at 200tpd and C at 300tpd into my rough and dirty NPN/IRR model, and then run it again with the maximum figures – ND at 250tpd and C at 400tpd. I have assumed a PoS of $33, BUT I have used the original historic grades - ND 400g/t and C at 500g/t. OpEx assumed to be $100/oz for ND and $160/oz for C. All numbers post 3% for royalties and tax, a guess at 30%.

Because of the low CapEx, the IRR goes off the Richter Scale - +/- 1000%, and the fully diluted NPV works out at £1.39/share for the lower numbers, and £1.81 for the higher ones. Apply a market discount (30% to 50%?) to the NPV figures and you end up with an share price well north of what it is right now.

CHIP – is my model telling me lies? I appreciate that in the absence of a detailed JORC Resource Report or any actual production figures it is all speculative, but even so....

It also seems that the AIM is very much the second market right now, as the company releases its news via the ASX only, for the time being at least. This seems to mean that any effect for good or bad seems to take a while to filter through into the UK.

So – on the basis that the AIM is a casino, what are the odds? You could theoretically lose your money if the roof falls in, but on the upside, a 10bagger is not beyond the realms of possibility. That suits me.

[sportsauto] 18/2/2014 17:47

Looking back at previous posts from last year( could easily apply this year) on this thread.
Economics of the mines look excellent. Cost are low c$10 so still very profitable at todays silver price and a MUCH lower MCAP.
Delays happen, mining is complex .BMZ today is FULLY FUNDED and Production is about to begin.
Share in issue c100m , mcap c£5m , Same silver assets, FULLY FUNDED and ONLY 5.5p to buy today

Just forecasts but shows the POTENTIAL. imo dyor nia
Many expect Silver rise in 2014!

Example 1


opaldouglas 23 Jan'13 - 23:25 - 866 of 2219 0 0

Although all will no doubt have figures/predictions this is my take on 2013:

Grades: New Departure - 622g/t. Conjecture - 350g/t.
Silver price: $30 p/oz
Exchange Rate: 1.6
Operating Costs: New Departure - $7 p/oz. Conjecture - $10 p/oz.
Efficiency: 80%

Based on conservative estimates of New Departure coming online in Q2 & Conjecture in Q3, both initially starting on 100tpd respectively and then ramping up to 250 in subsequent quarters. So:

2013
Q1. New Departure - n/a
Q2. New Departure - 100 tpd (Operating Profit £2.4M)
Q3. New Departure - 250 tpd (Operating Profit £6.1M)
Q4. New Departure - 250 tpd (Operating Profit £6.1M)
2013
Q1. Conjecture - n/a
Q2. Conjecture - n/a
Q3. Conjecture - 100 tpd (Operating Profit £1.4M)
Q4. Conjecture - 250 tpd (Operating Profit £3.4M)

2013 - Operating Profit = £19.4M

£19.4M minus excessive 50% for tax, fees, admin etc would give a profit after tax of £9.7M. deduct 30% as BMZ have a 70% control and this would leave a very respectable £6.8M clear profit (for comparison purposes).

Working on P/E of 7.5 with 69M shares in issue this would equate to a share price of 74p with an upside of 546% of today's mid price!

Obviously cash generation will have to be spent on further drilling/exploration in order to bring Tabor online and prove up current resources, which is the big but! but... going off historical data and drilling to date things look v promising indeed.

I'm in no doubt that a further cash call will be required in the first half of this year but this shouldn't be excessive and with v little capex required for such a high grade silver deposit to date there's every chance the rewards here could be huge.

Based on my 2014 predictions, all thing being equal a share price of £1.45 is predicted. With a current market cap of £8M things look v interesting here indeed.

Of course all in my opinion!

[kiwimonk] 18/2/2014 16:22

$10m Profit if Silver hits $30 an ounce.
£4.5m mk cap!

[topinfo] 18/2/2014 15:45

Yes and all within a minute of each-other but they arent connected lmao