|For what it is worth I also don't rate TMF which is sad because I used to visit the site almost every day a few years ago and now I may visit once a month. Was just sharing the link earlier as it was the only recent "news" I could find after the results and sometimes they get it right! Looks like we may well drop below 1400p for starters at this rate and then who knows after such a large spike. May be able to buy lower than 1300p ilovefrogs!|
|Down below £14 today. If gets back below £13, I'll definitely be adding!!|
|On that Igbert, I fully concur - shame though it is.|
|TMF articles long ceased to have any credibility. The site has no idea what it wants to be and is gradually ceasing to be relevant.|
|ok, so what I think TMF has done, is look at actual eps 2016 (68p), and then compared with the current consensus forecast eps (71p) which hasn't yet been adjusted for the better than expected results. Prior to the results, the growth forecast was about 9% for this year which sounds more sensible (whilst still on the low side). Doesn't say much for TMF's analytical skills though, does it?|
|TMF - article - Interesting that they think the 'bottom line' (profits?) will only grow by 3% this year. That feels ridiculously low particularly given exchange rate effect. Wonder where he's getting that forecast from? If the market thinks this, then the stock is definitely a strong buy, but I think consensus would be for much stronger growth than this.|
|I was lucky to buy this share when it fell back to 1000 recently. My brother in law put me on to this, he works for Bayer. He reckons that this type of business (I don't really understand the tech) has a massive future in healthcare.|
|Latest from TMF:
I now have a small long-term holding here. If we drop to lower levels I would hope to top-up, funds permitting! While AstraZeneca is compared and favoured more by the author they still both get the thumbs-up:
While both stocks appear to be worth buying, AstraZeneca’s lower valuation and lower risk profile makes it the superior stock for the long term. Its shares could continue to beat the FTSE 100, as they have done by 9% over the last year.|
"Secondly, Statement now talks about 'modest growth' for this year. Not sure what this means, but probably not the 20+% in revenues seen last year?"
The word modest was used last year as well, in fact see if you can spot the difference between the Conclusion in the 2016 results vs 2015!
We are delighted to be able to report such positive news for the current year.
Furthermore, we remain optimistic that further modest growth in the next two
years will come from additional vitamin D antibody sales and royalties.
We are delighted to be able to report such positive news for the current year.
Furthermore, we remain optimistic that further modest growth next year will
come from additional vitamin D antibody sales and royalties.|
|The risk of Troponin revenue not replacing other revenues from next year on was priced in when the share price slid from 1250 to under 1000 earlier this year. Since then the risk has lessened, the £ slides and the company continues to perform well in other areas.
This is a long term business with normally a large spread....so favours long term investors. There is little doubt it will keep throwing off cash so we can look forward to increasing dividends unless the company finds other investment opportunities.|
|There you go. I anticipated you would see what I meant, but I was wrong, so proving how anticipation is different from certainty and can lead to dispaointment..... (ha ha!)|
|We will have to agree to differ ;-)|
|Just because they both have 'will' in them, doesn't mean they're the same. Saying something 'will happen' and saying 'that you anticipate something will happen' are different in my book. Anticipate=expect, so, exchange 'anticipate' for 'expect' and I expect/anticipate you WILL see what I mean ;-))
Anyway, enough of the semantics......|
|ilovefrogs - think you're arguing with yourself matey. You question my use of "will" by using a sentence from the RNS containing "will". If you don't believe them just say so?
Anyone following this company will have twigged that they're as conservative as Tebbitt, so saying "will" is as good as it gets.
Re your other points, at the moment the £ drop looks pretty permanent, so good for a while for the company.|
|Thanks Stepone. My point on the FX was not that it was driving all the growth, but that this is what gave us the £5.5m rather than £5.3m. I had initially thoughts this was a volume effect, but it now seems this was more down to currency. To be fair, Sterling has continued to slide since August, so the effect will be even stronger in this half.
I agree that 20% growth is still admirable, but what is the market pricing in? If it's simply projecting forward another 25-30% next year, it might be disappointed? Good point regarding use of the word 'modest' - they are a conservative bunch, and may well be playing down the true level of underlying growth for next year.|
|ilovefrogs - so, there has been a roughly 15% boost in exchange rates. That applied to the second half earnings only, so call it 7.5%. Turnover was up 28%. So that might have been around 20% without the fx gains. All a bit rough and ready, but 20% growth is good enough for me. In terms of the troponin money you are right that they 'anticipate' it will make up for other lost income. That's also good enough for me. As for using the word 'modest' - it's the same word as they used last year, since they seem to like to under-promise and over deliver. I'll be hanging on until at least this time next year to see how the troponin stuff sells.|
|Well let's examine the wording in your post:
"New test WILL replace the one who's royalty expires soon". The word 'will' has a very clear meaning in the English language and brooks no uncertainty as to the outcome. The RNS specifically says: "....anticipate that this revenue will offset revenues of £0.7 million - £0.8 million from another product which will terminate during this period". My point was that I believe these two statements are different with the latter incorporating a higher degree of uncertainty. hence the use of contrary is correct I believe.
That was obviously just a small part of my post. Any thoughts you have on the other areas would be of interest (perhaps with a bit less of the name calling....?)|
|"Not guaranteeing" - have you ever seen a guarantee in a results statement ? Their wording is as good as it gets. Not at all "contrary to some posts" you cheeky muppet!|
|Great results, but let's apply some critical thinking to test our hypothesis:
Firstly, it's clear that second half results benefitted almost fully from Sterling weakness - Royalties paid 6 monthly some 2 months after the period ends at prevailing exchange rates - ie August 2016 for the second half. It is likely that this explains much of the revenue outperformance vs target? This will continue in the current half, but comparisons will become much harder in the second half.
Secondly, Statement now talks about 'modest growth' for this year. Not sure what this means, but probably not the 20+% in revenues seen last year? Finally, contrary to some posts above, the Company is not guaranteeing that troponin sales will offset the 700k loss of contract next year, although they have strengthened their wording to 'anticipate'. Even so, some risk here I think.
All that being said , long term still looks very bright.
Stock now on 23x last years earnings, 25x or £17 feels a reasonable ST target, so might be worth lightening holding there? Stock easily now my largest individual position, so some top-slicing might be warranted at £17, with a view to buying back in if it comes back.
What do others think?|
|BVXP is a great "sleep at night" investment. The only downside is that they are a niche provider, so the growth prospects are somewhat limited by their niches, although still plenty of upside from here IMHO.|
|And now yielding over 5% if you include the Special dividend.|
|Those financials are an accountant's wet dream. Strong turnover, profit, EPS growth. Monstrous margins, capital-light, overhead-light. I could go on....|
|Was 1600 to buy 1580 to sell a moment ago, shame that mms won't report the true spread|