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Bioventix Share Discussion Threads
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|Thanks for the update. With regards to the two Norway projects, did Peter indicate whether they had a working antibody in place? The CardiNor announcement said: "Under the terms of the agreement Bioventix will develop and provide antibodies for CardiNor’s new Secretoneurin (SN) IVD test. Aimed at the estimated USD 4 billion cardiovascular risk assessment market, the assay is intended for launch in early 2017." The Pre Diagnostics announcement said: "According to Sæterøy, the company is now on track for launching a research only test in 2017"
Collaborating with early stage research scientists on novel tests is a good strategy, I think. The timeframe for commercialisation may be further in the future but it should mean that even if the antibody is particularly difficult to develop they don't have to rely on a diagnostic company (who would demand exclusivity) for scientific insight. It should mean a larger market opportunity (100% available) as opposed to limiting it to the diagnostic company's market share (anywhere up to 20%).|
|Thanks Leon, much appreciated.|
|Nothing much to report from the meeting with Peter.He seemed very confident of an ex-US Troponin launch by Siemens in 2017 and in the US in 2018. Siemens has drawn comfort from the FDA clearance of the Roche test. He believes 2020-2025 will see these tests also being increasingly used in POC early stage detection of heart problems. He also mentioned in passing that some of his team are working on the development of synthetic antibodies. In typical Peter style he underplayed this so I've no idea on the scale of any commercial opportunities which may result. He talked positively of the two projects in Norway. These address two very large markets and could be significant revenue generators in time but stressed that success is by no means guaranteed. The secretoneurin (heart disease) project with CardiNor has been running for almost two and a half years and has made significant technical progress. It's collaboration with Pre Diagnostics in the field of beta amyloid and Alzheimers diagnostics is at a much earlier stage. Bioventix is actively looking for similar opportunities and would like to have as many as ten. Vitamin D continues to surprise to the upside with annualised sales heading to £2.5m with some of its partners enjoying strong organic growth . Siemen's has recently launched its Vitamin D test on its Discovery platform using a Bioventix antibody although this is less widely used than its Centaur platform which includes a Vit D test based around a mouse antibody.|
|Sorry, that should of course read "just below mid price"|
|Interesting trades today. A flurry of "sells" in the last 15 minutes, all just below bid price. Wasn't there an insti briefing day today? Would be interested to hear any tidbits (Leon?) that might flesh out the interim report.|
|FWIW - the BVXP staircase
... where H2 represents the 2nd half of the year to December.|
|For those who haven't read it, here is a nice bit of analysis by Maynard Paton on the interim results:
|Plenty of room for upgrades with those forecasts IMHO (just the way I like it).|
|finnCap forecast changes as requested:
2017 rev: GBP6.3m (+5%); eps: 78.7p (+5%); dps: 51.0p (0%); net cash: GBP5.8m (0%)
2018 rev: GBP6.3m (+5%); eps: 77.7p (+7%); dps: 61.0p (0%); net cash: GBP7.0m (+5%)|
|Some recent research using the high sensitivity Roche Troponin T test following non-cardiac surgery.
“We found that approximately 18 percent of patients will sustain a heart injury after non-cardiac surgery, but without monitoring troponins, 93 percent of these will be missed,” said P.J. Devereaux, M.D., Ph.D., director of cardiology at McMaster University in Hamilton, Canada, and lead author of the study. “Our data show that unrecognized heart injuries may account for about 1 in 4 of the deaths that happen in the first 30 days after surgery.”|
|They've cash of over £5m, and only managed to invest £152k in their new company in the period. As long as it continues to throw off cash they'll be paying special divis.|
|Thanks for that. Are you assuming Troponin sales of £800k next year to cover lost revenue, then rising by 12% annually?|
|For the last few years turnover in H2 has been 25-30% more than H1. The currency boost in the H1 just reported means that probably won't happen this year, but even a flat H2 would put annual revenue at 6.2m which is above current forecasts of 6.1. A bit of H2 growth might put it up to 6.4 or even 6.5m. With admin costs flat that could be eps of 77p, which is still a P/E of 24. High, but not ridiculous.
As long as the Troponin sales come through I'd expect this to go higher. Hopefully the next interims in 12 months time will confirm this.
|finnCap raised their PT to 1750p|
|Cash balance up again - I expect another Special Divi with the final results.|
|They remain confident that the Troponin royalties will replace the expiring ones. So date can't have slipped.
|Indeed Igbert - everything except a date for Troponin. Another excellent set of results from BVXP (my largest holding by some distance).|
|Chinese buying product for R&D purposes. Trying to see how they can copy the technology I guess. Even with the resources that they can bring to bear, it will take them a little while I would have thought.|
|Igbert - and the cost of sales fell!|
|On Peter Harrison's commentary, "never has so little been said about so much".|
|Well. There's your news on Vitamin D and a progressive dividend!Admin expenses went up by over £1000!!!Superbly run company: £20 soon.Thanks to the board and employees.|
|But only 14 employees I believe. Incredible business model.|