Bioseek Share Discussion Threads

[petersinthemarket] 26/7/2011 10:16

>>buywell2 - as a general rule, I am a big fan of small companies. I think it was Jim slater, Zulu Principle, who said ''elephants dont gallop''. My current portfolio is ght, yulc, hvn, tig, atd. Although atd is beginning to look like a dog my experience is that the right mix more than makes up for the occasional mistake. Unfortunately, the global macro economic situation is slugging everything at present but i am confident that the market will still repeat its historical upward pattern towrds the year end.
pim

[buywell2] 25/7/2011 19:57

Thanks for that pim

So even the so called experts don't heed charts or use stops or stop losses it would seem.

Because it is they that show the price trend in pictorial fashion

I have become a convert after many years of investing, one has to use every edge and tool one can to get the 'risk' minimized.

Bank shares like BARC and LLOY have been great for following chart trend lines.

BUT so have many small Cap stocks , which is what I like as I think they have been overlooked value wise.

[spaceparallax] 25/7/2011 12:10

You'd better heed his advice chaps - hard to see, given your sentiment, why you stick around.

[petersinthemarket] 25/7/2011 10:47

>>buywell2 - i share your doubts about brokers

DSchwartz extract:
''My biggest 2011 losers shared a common feature as well. I expected biotech minnow Ark Theraputic to benefit from a medical breakthrough. Fortunately, I made a smaller bet than normal because of the risk that the company might fail to win regulatory approval. I recall thinking that these shares were unsuitable for widows and orphans. My fears turned out to be true. Ark failed to gain approval and shares fell steeply. I eventually sold after being hit by a large loss. Another big loser was Asterand, a provider of human tissue for drug discovery research. Here too, the company issued a disappointing trading update and shares declined. In both cases, my losses were significantly increased by inaction. Prices for both companies began to decline well before their problems were announced. I failed to heed the clear message being transmitted by the declining price trend. I was especially annoyed by my behaviour with respect to Ark. I repeatedly treated price declines as unimportant events because of the small size of my investment. The result was that I foolishly doubled the size of my loss. On balance, I remain a fan of small company investments because they offer me the best profit opportunity. But my review also reminds me to react faster if the trend does not go according to plan. Sadly it is a lesson that I periodically relearn.''

[buywell2] 24/7/2011 21:00

Didn't read the FT this weekend what did he say ?

I remember Daniel Stewart though from another stock I was looking at some while back, they had a buy rating on it that was circa 25% higher then it was trading ..... ie 250p when it was trading at 203.5p

12.06.08 :-3, (203.5) fell 5 percent in midmorning deals, after it said all offer talks for its only trading subsidiary, Jarvis Investment Management Plc., have ended. Earlier on Thursday, the financial services group said it is no longer engaged in any discussions regarding a potential offer for the group or its unit. But in reaction, Daniel Stewart left a 'buy' rating on the group, noting that Jarvis Securities said it is trading ahead of expectations. The broker notes that the company believed the offer did not properly reflect the underlying value of the business. Daniel Stewart thus leaves forecasts unchanged and, ahead of the group's interim results in July, sticks with a 'buy' rating and 250 pence price target on the stock.

The stock then promptly bombed over the next 6 months, losing circa 50% of it's value


They never did get to 250p , and bombed again the following year after



This is why I don't set too much faith in what brokers say or take much notice of their so called targets.

[petersinthemarket] 24/7/2011 17:47

>>buywell2 - hope the move downwards does not occur but recent performance has been less than encouraging.

i note also that david schwartz gave his disappointment with atd another airing in this weekends ft.

house broker daniel stewart however is still quite optimistic with a 30p price target as recently as 18 july.

we will see - i will continue to hedge my bets for a while longer.
pim

[spaceparallax] 22/7/2011 20:31

you're welcome

[spaceparallax] 22/7/2011 19:54

You two work well together - have you thought of getting married?

[buywell2] 22/7/2011 19:44

TA suggests a move down again could start soon to circa 9.5p

[petersinthemarket] 22/7/2011 19:27

Guys - i have a small confession to make.

as a dedicated holder of atd i nonetheless got so p*ssed off with the lousy progress at atd that earlier in the week i sold half of my holding.

based on my previous experience you may now see a steady rise in share price and i want to stake my claim to all the credit for it!

sorry, and best of luck to all remaining holders.
pim

[swingitbaby] 20/7/2011 21:35

Good to hear mate :) Interesting system you have. I haven't traded for three months as have been busy with work, but Im off to Greece next week for a month..

Can't wait :))

[and then] 20/7/2011 16:08

Will the algo change? I have just got back from the beach and backtested todays chart.... 2 triggers, both with 25 point targets achieved.

[and then] 20/7/2011 08:40

Yeh, cheers mate. Holiday in Crimea right now, so only looking in briefly to check shares. Not trading. Started developing another system just before i left home last week. Can't wait to backtest it further, but it appeared to give a positive point count over any time scale, so somewhat excited as it is the simplest method i have ever seen. Couldn't help but backtest yesterdays charts for the euro 5 minutes ago, but it appears to end the day up some 120 points positive... we shall see!

[swingitbaby] 19/7/2011 23:36

U ok and then ?

[and then] 13/7/2011 15:41

Despite my bias short as per last post, this is why the following statement was necessary advice...
'the problem still, is that we took out the last LH, which is bullish. I would have to leave either direction for now until more evidence'

The problem was several other indice's/FX looked bullish too, its rare to get them heading in opposite directions!

Set-up came and looked perfect. A 70 point SUB gives real momentum...

(ignore the 'LH' on the chart, its was supposed to be (obviously) a 'HL' :))

[and then] 13/7/2011 12:13

Incredibly after posts 342 & 343, this is the update;

The trade is still alive, despite a very bullish morning that had everyone looking upwards, look at current PA. The stop wasn't hit! It may be time to put the bear cap on again... target would be 5819, the problem still, is that we took out the last LH, which is bullish. I would have to leave either direction for now until more evidence, although the stop level for the long was breached, therefore the bias would be short....

[and then] 13/7/2011 10:34

and then - 11 Jul'11 - 13:45 - 75427 of 75953 edit

The lower (thick) black line is the larger wedge we have all been watching...

The wedge was backtested on the 15 min, but is it possible it needs to be retested on the daily? Just a thought...

[and then] 13/7/2011 08:56

Under the same rules, last nights euro trade should be negated, (although it came within 6 points of target on a sharp rise and should have been closed after the gravestone doji gave evidence of a reverse).
In the light of day, the set-up still stands, with the stop being tested to within a pip, PA continues into a wedge with confidence gaining that the direction is bullish. SUB was below the line, but still triggered. Retest of the flag happened in a flash. Often a great second chance at a bite of the cherry...
The new set-up carries a new target as shown with PA hitting the TP from last nights set-up.

[and then] 12/7/2011 21:19

Above is after news of Ireland debt downgrade, in this instance we have conflicting set-ups and best off exiting either trade regardless of loss. If in doubt, stay out...