Bioseek Share Discussion Threads

[apex] 10/6/2011 13:20

Nice one - keep up the good work :)

[and then] 10/6/2011 13:00

20 points does appear optimal. Ok sometimes it gives many more per set-up, but on the whole, its all you need.

[emuphil] 10/6/2011 12:17

If I remember rightly the reason for ATD management not expecting a profit in 2011 is because they want to plough money into investment and research (as they have been doing) and staying ahead of the game. I'd rather they do that then stagnate and let their competitors get the edge in order to record a profit.

Having been in this share a few years, since the share price was 6p, and having met the management a few times at the proactive investors presentations, I do have some confidence in them and have recently topped up at similar levels to this. I don't think the current situation with the company is anywhere near as bad as the sentiment. They've been through a tough year or so, not suffered too much on an earnings basis, signed a good new contract, and made what is looking like a very decent acquisition. If they break even in 2011 due to ploughing money into research, it should be to the benefit of shareholders in the long run, and hopefully we can look forward to some good profits 2012 onwards. I also much prefer a management that is honest in setting expectations rather than too bullish leading to disappointment. A shame the house broker doesn't follow the same principals!

The latest interim results reported revenue increasing 30% on last year and the only focus seems to have been on the negative fact that revenues from the core business were flat. Looks to me like the opposite of when the share price was in the high 20s and all anyone could do was pick the positives out of some very average results. That was the time to sell (though I didn't sell as many as I should have) and I think now is the time to buy.

[spaceparallax] 10/6/2011 08:58

Great tag-team work. LOL!

[curious] 09/6/2011 20:25

Peter
Be careful with your hopes for profit of £1.4 in 2011. I do not know with complete certainty but I think the Diglk forecast probably comes from Daniel Stewart which is about the only broker that follows ATD. Your figure is identical to the Daniel Stewart figure

Keep in mind that Daniel Stewart is the house broker. It had an analyst who long gave me the impression of being a booster of ATD rather than an objective forecaster. I personally placed very little credence on his forecast. I do not know if he has been replaced on the ATD account but it is something to think about. They/He may turn out to be right of course about the year ahead but I think all of their forecasts and credibility, based upon the historic track record, are worth treating with a grain of salt.

Also keep in mind that ATD reports in US dollars. Some investors do not realise this. Dollar figures become much lower when converted to sterling. I raise this as a question rather than a definite knock at the Diglk forecast.

Incidentally, your 28% forecasted increase in 2011 raises some additional questions for me.

Recall that revenues rose rose to $21.3 million in 2010 from $18.7 in 2009 and delivered a virtuually unchanged pre-tax loss of $2 million. Some of this loss was exceptional one-off in nature. But even if we eliminate all exceptionals, we see that a $2.6 million increase in revenue (+14%) from 09 to 10 improved the loss figure marginally. Applying the same maths to your forecasted revenue gain figure for 2011 gives me a pre-tax profit figure for 2011 closer to zero than your diglk forecast of £1.4 million.

Keep in mind that I am merely playing with numbers and guesses but the bottom line for me is that I am much less confident in an ATD profit for 2011 than Daniel Stewart and Diglk are. Keep in mind that ATD also recently admitted at their analyst presentation last month that they do not expect a profit in 2011, despite higher revenues.

Moving on, I share your view that the constant share price slide is worrying. Hopefully it will blow over. I'm not good at preparing graphs but if you can pull up a graph and draw a line that connects the lows of Sept 8, 2010 and November 18, you will see that the support line now sits at 11p, not 10p. I personally would be even more concerned if shares break down below this level.

I also think it is deeply offensive that ATD management keep awarding themselves additionasl shares even though they have turned a profit just once in the last four or five years.

One last point. They earned virtually zero in interest in the last financial year. This means they had no cash in the bank. Is this a sign of a company in deep poo poo. Any accountants out there who can offer an opinion.

Message to all other posters. I welcome other views. My purpose is not to win some stupid argument but to get worthwhile opinons that support or challenge my own views.

[petersinthemarket] 09/6/2011 18:30

many thanks for the response curious - excellent suggestion - nice to know there are some balanced posters out there - spaceparallax is now filtered - one less nuisance.

According to DigLk, yr ending 31dec2011 should yield a 28% increase in rev and a reversal of last yrs loss to give a £1.4m profit. Whilst nothing special, this is a substantial turnaround on the previous 2yrs and indicates some level of recovery. But the market seems rather dismissive or mistrustful of this.

Forecasts for 2012 are even more encouraging, hence my large holding.

The constant slide, rather than the more common stagnation in share price due to lack of newsflow is what is worrying me. The recent meeting offered an opportunity to engender some confidence but I see no sign of it yet.

Whilst I am no chartist, I suspect now that we may be looking at a further slide to around the 10p level where hopefully the support will at last kick in.

Being too optimistic of share price recovery I have held too long to quit and so have a substantial loss on the investment. FWIW I propose to stick with it to see if the management can turn their bad image around but at first sniff of real and published bad news I will take the loss and move on.

Are there any lurkers out there who want to join the debate?
regards, pim

[curious] 09/6/2011 17:57

pim,
Spaceparallax is a loser. That's quite obvious. He claims to have been averaging down. If true, he is probably deeply under water right now. He deals with his pain with sarcasm plus a refusal to look at any other point of view. His problem, not ours.
Why don't you do what I do. Filter him out. It's easy to do. That way, I don't see any of his posts. Go to the top and click on the "filter" button.
On a substanitive note, the market is telling us that ATD is in very bad shape. I too own shares. I sold some of them in the mid-teens but held on to the rest. Like you Peter, I am not very pleased with the current situation.
This week brought us a very positive announcement yet shares fell even further.
The new division appears to be doing well but the market appears to be ignoring it. The market might be telling us that the company is in danger of folding. I personally don't believe it but it is hard to come up with a more convincing explanation.
There are two things that I am very worried about. One is the bank's refusal to provide money at the very last minute after it was already promised. This is a very atypical event in the US banking world.
My other major concern is that the so-called "huge" US contract is actually quite small with revenue spread over two financial years. The government has the option of renewing it in the years ahead but, given the state of the US economy, one has to worry.
I don't have the skills to know for sure if a "going bust" scenario is in the cards. Any of your views on this financial issue would be appreciated. The same offer holds true for any other contributor with a view.
Another possibility is that the company is so small and has disappointed the City enough times so that everyone now ignores it. If this is the situation, then holders like you and I must anticipate these shares going nowhere for a very lengthy period of time until ATD wins the respect of the City. I do not know for sure if this is the case. I only raise it as a possibility.
As far as our loser friend is concerned, filter him out like I do and keep posting on this thread. I don't think we need a new one but I am happy to follow you if you want to take on the task of setting one up.

[and then] 09/6/2011 17:28

Trough has run dry?!



and update...

[petersinthemarket] 09/6/2011 16:10

Is there anyone out there who can find the time to set up and run an alternative ATD thread? I regret that I can not. This repetitive and tiresome ''lol'' is a complete waste of everyones time. We need to be able to debate the serious side of what seems to be a good company going through a slow patch. But all that contributors seem to get is continuous sarcasm. This thread is very quiet compared to many but I believe there are interested parties out there and its the tone of the thread that is keeping them away from the discussion. I have a large holding here and would be interested in joining a new and properly run thread.
regards, pim

[david123456] 09/6/2011 15:14

What good news?????

[buywell2] 09/6/2011 15:11

I didn't ... looks like it went down not too good from the chart today

Nothing re current trading update was there, unlike some AGM's today for example

Sorry to say it guys but at the current rate of decine the share price will be in single figures inside of 10 days chartwise that is

dyor

[emuphil] 09/6/2011 09:08

Anyone go to the AGM?

[spaceparallax] 08/6/2011 09:31

Good news.

[and then] 07/6/2011 11:50

Strong Negative divergence and a pair of 'tweezers' great indicator for a retrace. Don't get too carried away though as there is strong evidence of Hidden Divergence too...

[and then] 07/6/2011 10:36

Am putting this pair on my watchlist again. I had forgotten how kind they can be in the mornings...



In this instance, entry is nice and gentle. No point trading the Euro or cable after 08:00 until 16:00 imo. Although great set-ups can and still do occur, most have a SUB of more than 10/12 points. Yes, it can go on to give you points quickly, but also in my experience also suffer too many whiplashes (as PA doesn't like to get too far away from the SMA) and occasional failed trades stop you from gaining the confidence to go in heavy...

[and then] 07/6/2011 09:03

Hayfever keeping me up for a few hours last night wiped me out. Over-sleeping this morning made me miss this one... *damn*



Always makes me laugh when after you post a chart and a trade someone carelessly comments to the effect of, 'yeh, but those trades only work in hindsight...' etc
You need broad shoulders to post on the more well read threads. Although i haven't given away all the exact criteria of the system, a quick look back through my last 100 posts or so makes it fairly obvious as to how it works.
I feel its very naive to post a comment dismissing a set-up without knowing the first thing about it. Firstly, how the hell are you supposed to learn any patterns without the benefit of hindsight?! Secondly, how come this same pattern works time after time after time?! The mind boggles!