Biofocus Share Discussion Threads

[vlain] 06/12/2007 23:15

I have sold 80% of my stock in this after todays rise, which was long overdue. I'll let the remaining 10% takes its course.

BlackPearl, Keepitup & Aquilla

It was nice meeting you guys on this board and I hope to bump into you guys in the future, maybe on here, maybe on some other stock. Thanks for the ongoing comments and encouragements.

William47

I know you get a lot of stick on other boards but you have come right on this one. Well done.

TOO ALL WHO STILL HOLD, WELL DONE AND GOOD LUCK.

[aquilla] 06/12/2007 12:18

I have established that trading in the shares should cease by the 31st of January and shareholders should be able to get the full 30p by the 8th February. Offer documents with the detailed timetable will be posted at the end of next week.

[tommya] 06/12/2007 12:00

Great news for shareholders but what should they do now?

Price seems to have stabilised at 28p, with a sell price available at 27.5p, i.e. around 8% below the 30p offer. Should holders:

i) sell.
ii) hold

The following outlines the timetable from this morning's RNS:


"15.2 Anticipated Timetable

Bionostics anticipates that it will despatch the Scheme Document to Bionostics
Shareholders and, for information only, to holders of options granted under the
Bionostics Share Schemes on or about 15 December 2007, but in any event within
the next 28 days (or such later date as may be agreed with the Panel); that the
Court Meeting and EGM will take place during January 2008; and subject to the
Scheme becoming unconditional and effective in accordance with its terms, the
Effective Date will occur at the end of January 2008. The timing of events which
relate to the implementation of the Scheme is, however, subject to the approval
of the Court and is therefore subject to change. A full anticipated timetable
will be set out in the Scheme Document.

If the Proposals do not become effective by 29 February 2008, the Proposals will
lapse except where the approval of Bionostics Shareholders at the Court Meeting
and the EGM is obtained before this date, in which case the longstop date for
the Proposals may be extended to such later date as NAV Bidco and Bionostics may
agree and, if appropriate, the Court may approve."


The market is discounting 8% of value due to the uncertainty of the deal going through between now and end February; i.e. attributing an 8% chance of it fallling through. All Bio directors have signed up to the proposal, as have NAV and Mannheim Holdings, who have 10.3% of share capital.

Mannheim have stated that their "irrevocable undertaking will only lapse if a
competing offer is made for the entire issued share capital of Bionostics which
exceeds the value of the Offer by ten per cent. or more."


So, what chance a counterbid by a third party?

[william47] 06/12/2007 11:22

guys NWT JUST GOT A 1.150 MILLION POUND PAYMENT.3P+

[aquilla] 06/12/2007 09:09

Thankyou, vlain. Christmas has come early!! And well done to the long term holders!

[vlain] 06/12/2007 08:30

Well done BP and w47.

Also Aquilla and KEEPITUP for keeping the faith....

[rokkie] 06/12/2007 08:02

nice call william.......wow, already holding EEL :-))))

[garth] 06/12/2007 07:54

Very pleased :0)

[cyberpost] 06/12/2007 07:48

wow...... nice christmas present. well done to all... including blackperl.

[doyouwantfries] 06/12/2007 07:39

where next william47?

[william47] 06/12/2007 07:36

as i said buy on dips

[cwa1] 06/12/2007 07:32

Excuse me for a moment.

Yippeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee :-)

Was starting to get a little bit worried about loading up with this one but the reward has come.

Brilliant. Well done all here for keeping the faith.

[doyouwantfries] 06/12/2007 07:14

Where is everyone?

[aquilla] 05/12/2007 18:54

Agreed up to a point, cyberpost. Yes, it would seem that the talks must be at an advanced stage, indeed the time period is extraordinary for such a small company. So one has to look at possible reasons for the delay.
I posted an article from the Daily Mail around the beginning of October:
"M & A activity rocked by debt turmoil:
Mergers and acquisition activity collapsed in September as the debt market turmoil put the kibosh on deals, according to Thomson Financial.
The value of deals worldwide fell to £94bn, the lowest level for over two years and a 66% slide from the busier days of June.
Private equity firms have been hit hard because of their reliance on debt to fund takeovers.
Thomson's figures show that parts of the debt markets came to a virtual standstill over the summer."
So there was a problem worldwide because of the debt market situation-hence the Northern Rock debacle.
Question is has this situation been resolved as far as NAV are concerned?
Your post on the 1st of December may give us a clue:
"Shares in Fayrewood (FWY), the computer products distributor, jumped 13.5p to 126.5p after the company admitted it is in talks which may or may not lead to an offer being made for the company. It was also revealed that fund manager North Atlantic Value has increased its stake in the firm to 24.71%."
This might lead one to assume that NAV is in a better position if it is in fact contemplating yet another offer. Would it have done so if financing such an offer were still a problem?
So where I do not agree is that if talks were going to fail, they would have done so ages ago. NAV could have been keen on the deal yet been unable to raise the funds through the debt market. This situation could have dragged on and eventually unravelled because of failure to achieve the funding.
Results must come out by the end of the month but I do not believe they would be left until the distractions of the holiday period. So we should see news, including an update on the offer talks, soon.

[cyberpost] 05/12/2007 14:39

"And, yes, there can only be one logical reason for the delay...to coincide with an announcement(one way or the other!). :-)"


aquilla

i see it differently. The results have been completed and audited before November. They were ready to be published. They could've been relesed in early November without any problems, and tagged a comment that bid talks were still ongoing. I've seen it before with other stocks that have been in talks. They issue results as usual and simply add that talks are ongoing. HOWEVER in BIO's case they have been deliberately witheld from announcing results. My take is that the bid talks are at a very advance stage and conclusion is all but done. But they cant be announced until all the formalities have been completed... and so they have decided to released the RNS for the offer and results at the same time.

If i am not mistaken, talks started in June.... if they had to break down it would've done ages ago.

[keepitup] 05/12/2007 14:27

Absolutely my thinking cyberpost. Great opportunity this for the few of us here.

[cyberpost] 05/12/2007 13:52

that email KIU got... interesting to note this :

".... temporary collapse of the share price"


the CEO believes it will be temporary...

[aquilla] 05/12/2007 11:07

cyberpost, agreed on both points. If the results are very good, as I suspect they will be, this could rocket. And, yes, there can only be one logical reason for the delay...to coincide with an announcement(one way or the other!). :-)

[cyberpost] 05/12/2007 09:48

aquilla

liquidity (or lack of it) works both ways. At the moment its working against us. BUT as you well know before the bid talked were announced the price was c.20p. And we now have a hint that the results will be very good. So the lack of liquidity will work for us once the market sees the company is on a sound footing and generating profits. Conclusion of 30p bid talks will be just the icing on the cake.

Also, why delay the results for over a month ? The results have been prepared ages ago and as is the history of the company, they always release them early november. One has to ask why they havent released them this time round ? Logically one can only draw one conclusion.

[cyberpost] 05/12/2007 09:45

WINS having a glitch. They've stopped quoting for all stocks. Must be a computer glitch. Hence the bid showing 13p. WINS were on 14p.

[aquilla] 04/12/2007 17:47

This share never ceases to amaze. It is on the radar of only a few investors, ignored by the rest. In some ways not surprising, with a market cap of a mere £7m and a chart that looks horrendous.
Indeed it has never caught the imagination in the way that some small caps have (remember RTD?). When I started the first BIO thread (and I originally got in back in January at 23p) there would be a couple of posts a week, if that. But what is surprising is that the share price is now languishing at 14.5p, given the fact that there are still ongoing talks which might lead to an offer of 30p and that, aside from the bid element, the fundamentals of the company offer hope for the future. With a new CEO with a turn-around track record brought in last year, the loss making divisions gone and two cash generative divisions left one would have expected the share price to have done more. Yes, there is the debt but, as has been pointed out before, hopefully the cash generative divisions will reduce this sharply.
Part of the problem lies, I believe, with the illiquidity of the share. A small cap already, most of the shares are held by institutions. NMS at the moment is 1500, and 5000 traded today would have cleared the order book. A pathetic amount. I have indeed found that it can be traded in much larger quantities, without moving the share price against the trader, but how many private investors have the knowledge or persuasive powers to go down that route?

Is this going to turn out to have been a good investment? Time will tell, but in the meantime we remain in the doldrums.