Billington Share Discussion Threads

[meijiman] 17/2/2017 16:32

It looks like Sev are eating Biln's lunch whilst the Biln management are dozing in the sun.

[my retirement fund] 17/2/2017 15:05

A company with the sort of ownership and sharestructue as here never trades very high

[sspurt] 15/2/2017 08:57

I had a tiny residual position left over from the Amco days when Lenny Licht was involved. Added to it recently but am wary due to liquidity and cyclicality. Agreed it is relatively cheap but does not have SFRs market position. Am also watching London resi and office slowdown with a little apprehension. Go carefully boys and girls

[glasshalfull] 15/2/2017 08:40

Thanks sailing john. Yes, missed out here previously & thought it was one that had simply got away from me. The pull back in BILN's shares offered too good an opportunity to resist.

Funnily enough, I'd just finished posting a similar chart comparison between SFR & BILN on twitter. Quite a divergence!

Kind regards,
GHF

[sailing john] 15/2/2017 08:34

GHF - Welcome to BILN! - Surprised you weren't already in this - all the usual value investors appear to be here. Not easy to build a decent position - I only managed to buy volume when EBT were selling. (this is currently my second largest position!)
By my calculations Billington on a PE roughly half that of Severfield
And you are correct to highlight the recent shareprice divergence of BILN and SFR
GL SJ

[meijiman] 15/2/2017 08:32

Yes but if you were the BILN management you might want to think a little about why you are not achieving market traction yet Sev is? One reason is that Sev management promote the company. They go to see fund managers to explain the story and host open capital markets days so investors can see what is going on. That can only take you so far but it might be something to mull over as this performance differential is becoming embarrassing.

[glasshalfull] 15/2/2017 08:17

BILN

I've been having a nibble here over recent sessions. Didn't realise it would be so illiquid.

BILN's shares are down (-20%) in the last 12 months, despite considerable progress in the period and upbeat t/s last week. While some PIs were disappointed by lack of a further "ahead" statement - WH Ireland raised earnings forecasts by (+26%) during 2016 - confirmation that they would achieve these upgraded expectation was fine with me & allowed the opportunity to pick up stock from those exiting.

The divergence in share price between BILN & peer SFR has also magnified over recent months. Since mid-September 2016 BILN's share price has fallen back by (-14%) while SFR's share price has risen by (+43%).

WH Ireland issued a short update on Friday (10th Feb) that intimated,

"Billington has this morning released a robust trading update, confirming that results for the year to 31 December 2016 are anticipated to be in line with expectations.

Importantly, excellent progress has been made at the new Shafton facility and all of the businesses are reported to have continued to perform well. A number of high profile projects were successfully completed in the year, including the Greenwich Peninsula Energy Centre.

We view this morning's announcement positively, particularly against the context of our earnings estimates having been raised by c.26% during the course of 2016. On the back of the update, we leave our forecasts unchanged (FY 2016E PBT £3.5m/EPS 23.8p, FY 2017E PBT £3.6m, EPS 24.1p). With the shares trading on a current year PER of 10.1x (a c.25% discount to Severfield), we continue to see considerable upside to current levels and maintain both our Buy recommendation and 340p share price target.

---

At a market cap of £31m & Enterprise Value of £27.5m they look decent value on a PER of 10 while offering a 2.8% yield.

Fingers crossed some of the SFR magic rubs off on the BILN share price.

Kind regards,
GHF

[fizzypop] 10/2/2017 15:41

Thanks rhomboid.

[rhomboid] 10/2/2017 15:36

Last years payment was 6p , so I'd expect an uplift on that so c. 3.8%

[fizzypop] 10/2/2017 15:25

Anyone got a figure for the divi yield? Thanks

[steelwatch100] 10/2/2017 12:16

Looks like someone is selling 10,000 again at the 230 mark, could be John Gordon the chairman who let the same amount go a few weeks ago at 2.25?

[pj 1] 10/2/2017 11:56

Its one of those days! Yes 'net debt' -£3.6m

[rhomboid] 10/2/2017 11:44

At the Interims they had £6.24m of cash and cash equivalents , I'm guessing your figure includes netting off the Shafton mortgage?

[pj 1] 10/2/2017 10:58

If adjusted for £3.6m cash I have this on a 2017 P/E of x 8.8

[steelwatch100] 10/2/2017 10:03

PJ 1
Extract From the tu 29/7/16

The Group's performance has continued to improve during the first half of 2016 and the order book has continued to strengthen, providing good visibility beyond the end of the current financial year.

But your right other tu omit the detail!

[pj 1] 10/2/2017 09:47

just edited the above as I had the dates the wrong way around.

[pj 1] 10/2/2017 09:36

steelwatch- I cannot see a Trading Update for year end 2015 (2016) but for 2014 (2015) year end TU (ahead of market expectations)they also kept information to a minimum without mentioning workload or forward order book, so I do not think we can read too much into that.

''The Group's performance continued to improve in the second half of the 2014 financial year and, as a result, Billington will report results ahead of current market expectations.''



However, I do note that 'interim' Trading Updates do usually include such information.

[steelwatch100] 10/2/2017 09:25

Whilst generally optimistic about 2016 results, the disappointing thing about this statement is that there is not a word on current workloads or forward order book. Whereas previous trading statements generally provide a guide.

Hopefully they are waiting for some projects to be placed before updating the market.

Judging by the construction press there seems to be plenty of work out there at the moment. With this new youthful management team in place they should be able to get their share.

[rhomboid] 10/2/2017 08:57

Hi Interceptor2, thx for posting, I must admit I was also expecting an ahead of market expectations TU but my guess is mgt are mega conservative and just provisioning away like mad to provide money up the chimney for a rainy day! The Shafton transaction alone gives them loads of room for manoeuvre in providing for everything that they can get past the auditors..

I'm sure this'll do well from here

[interceptor2] 10/2/2017 08:49

Hands up, for clarity I did sell my holding here at the open, after the last statement which I highlighted in post 199, I was expecting an exceeding update here.

There is nothing wrong with today's update which was in line with hints of satisfaction with current trading, so I would think that the share price should reward patient holders here in the future.

I wish more patient holders than myself good luck and would be happy to see you all enjoy a good return.

[rhomboid] 10/2/2017 08:41

WH Ireland have eps forecast of 23.8p for 2016 & 24.1p for 2017, I'd hope to see the latter upgraded in due course, so here we have a single figure PE cash generation machine with a growth catalyst in Shafton . At some point this must rerate , maybe a thumping dividend increase would help?

[pj 1] 10/2/2017 08:20

Some bored guests leaving the Party. Wouldn't surprise me if its Blue come kicking out time.

[battlebus2] 10/2/2017 07:10

Very pleased with that update, trading inline but 2016 has seen a year of progress.

[rhomboid] 09/2/2017 20:36

SFR is my 3rd largest holding, the difference there is they're a "proper" listed co.wheras BILN has a controlling party privy to what is going on , the rest of us are hanging on their coat tails. Having said that BILN are active on social media & are trying to get the message across and I'm v happy that the value will out over the next few months.

[battlebus2] 09/2/2017 20:33

Expectations return to pre-Brexit levels

Expectations across the construction sector have regained the ground lost after the EU vote last year, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Construction Market Survey.

The Q4 2016 survey found that following a noticeable dip around the time of the EU referendum, expectations for output growth in the year to come have strengthened for the second consecutive report.

A total of 57% of respondents now expect workloads to increase over the next year (following +49% and +23% in Q3 and Q2 respectively).

Alongside this, expectations for employment improved for the second report running, with 41% more respondents anticipating a rise in construction sector employment over the coming year. Both employment and workload expectations have now recovered to their pre-referendum levels.

During the fourth quarter of 2016, output increased in most sub-sectors except public non-housing. Following the pattern of the previous three quarters, the strongest quarterly rise in workloads was reported in the private housing sector. 27% more respondents cited an increase in private housing workloads (rather than a decrease). A rise in workloads was also reported in the private commercial and infrastructure sectors.

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, commenting on the latest RICS survey data, said: “The latest results suggest that the construction sector has shrugged off concerns about the effect of Brexit with key workload indicators remaining firm around the country. Indeed, feedback regarding the outlook over the next 12 months is now rosier than it was in the autumn with more building anticipated as 2017 unfolds.

“That said, there remains some unease about access to skilled labour in the emerging new world and financial constraints still remain a major challenge for many businesses.”

Elsewhere, the latest Markit/CPS survey showed that construction buyers remained confident for the upcoming year – despite the construction sector suffering its weakest growth in January since post-Brexit recovery began – mainly due to new project starts and a resilient economic backdrop

The Markit/CPS survey also recorded strong hiring activity at the start of 2017 with employment numbers growing at the fastest rate for eight months. Subcontractor usage also rose at the steepest pace since December 2015.