Big Food Grp. Share Discussion Threads

[kingdwg] 11/11/2004 11:29

Twice, you must be convinced :-)

[fatmansays] 11/11/2004 11:26

BG

I accept the point of it's never wrong to book a profit etc etc.

However, if this was a no can do/ too expensive deal, I dont't think they would have got as far down the road as agreeing a position of the pension gap.

Critically, Baugur already hold a massive 22% already. Any view that they are overpaying is diluted by 22% down to the 78% not held.

Very Interestingly, the note shown in accounts states that the dividend has been omitted as it would only be payable if bid did not proceed. This would seem like there is a strong bias in management opinion that bid will proceed.

Note extract: An interim dividend of 1.0p per share is not included in the financial statements as its payment is conditional upon the possible acquisition by Baugur not proceeding.

That's it, I've nearly convinced myself !

[kingdwg] 11/11/2004 11:01

Well done Bigface, at least it's banked now. Just tried to do some more sof at 140.5 but they jumped up 1.5 as I was deliberating!!

[bigface] 11/11/2004 10:52

After looking again at teh balance sheet the predicted delays on Bauger "bid" and the price looking pretty full if the bid doesn't happen I have sold my entire holding.

Excluding Goodwill there appears to be 77m of negative equity. profits a profit. I hope it goes up more for you fatman I know you are holding a large sum.

[bigface] 11/11/2004 10:07

Analyst meeting in full swing Kingdwg.

[kingdwg] 11/11/2004 09:54

Oops, spoke too soon, looks like we have some heavy action here!!

[fatmansays] 11/11/2004 09:53

Ah ! penny might be dropping ! roll on 100p

[fatmansays] 11/11/2004 09:36

Standing Firm -

I believe Baugur feel the only way to protect the value of their 22% stake is to take control themselves. Don't believe there can be an alternative suitor as Baugur stake is too off putting.

[kingdwg] 11/11/2004 09:33

You could both be right, sof looks interesting at the moment.

[old crow] 11/11/2004 09:30

Bigface two minds must think alike
Just sold 50% holding to edge bets
Dont think bid would top 100p

Keep Crowing

[bigface] 11/11/2004 09:19

I have sold a tactical 1/4 for a profit.

I think Bauger is stalling and stalling to maintain the share price in the hope of a bid from elsewhere. The longer it goes on the more ridiculous the Company appears.

[kingdwg] 11/11/2004 09:14

In theory should be a nobrainer, that's the worrying bit, why isn't the whole world piling in for the sure 15%.

[fatmansays] 11/11/2004 08:44

Puzzling - the main doubt about bid has been resolved and the share price still lies 15% off the indicative bid. Surely a buying opportunity.

[bigface] 11/11/2004 07:42

Why would you sell now with the pension issue resolved with Baugur; and H1 underlying profits up.

[old crow] 11/11/2004 07:20

All we can say is,
we dont know.
What we do know is we wont get rich on this one!!
Could be time to fly away.

Keep Crowing

[put it all on red] 11/11/2004 07:09

Will be an up day because of this:

"Due diligence with Baugur is progressing
and, importantly, the pensions issues have been resolved in principle"

:)

[uknighted] 10/11/2004 23:32

RNS Number:0961F
Deutsche Bank AG London
10 November 2004


NB: USE SEPARATE FORMS FOR EACH CLASS OF SECURITY IN WHICH DEALINGS ARE MADE.
USE FORMS EMM (F) FOR DEALINGS IN FOREIGN CENTRES


CONNECTED EXEMPT MARKET-MAKER: DISCLOSURE OF DEALINGS UK)
(Rule 38.5 of the Take-over Code)


A Name of Exempt Market-maker:
DEUTSCHE BANK AG LONDON.

Name of offeror/offeree with whom "connected Baugur Group Plc

Date of dealings: .........09/11/04....................

Name of company in which dealings made Big Food Group Plc
Class of Security ............ Ordinary..................


B Purchases:
Total (no of shares, etc): 831,632

Highest price paid (# per unit) #0.9175
Lowest price paid (# per unit) #0.9075

Sales:
Total (no of shares, etc): 0

Highest price received (# per unit)
Lowest price received (# per unit)

Signed.................................Date..............10/11/04

For and on behalf of DEUTSCHE BANK AG LONDON

(Also print name of signatory)Kelly-Jade Ledwich

Telephone and extension number 0207 545 7804.


Rule 38.5 (CFD)


CONNECTED EXEMPT MARKET-MAKERS/EXEMPT PRINCIPAL TRADERS:
DISCLOSURE UNDER RULE 38.5 OF THE CITY CODE ON TAKEOVERS AND MERGERS


Dealing in Contract for Differences ("CFD") referenced to ..Big Food Group Plc
(Company)

(Class of security) Ordinary

Date of disclosure 10/11/04

Date of dealing 09/11/04


Name of EMM/EPT.......Deutsche Bank AG London.

Name of offeree/offerer with whom connected ............Baugur Group.

Product Type Long CFD

Maturity Date Open Ended

Writing of CFD

Number of Ordinary Shares to which the CFD is referenced ......831,632.

CFD reference price #0.91091


Closing Out of CFD

Number of Ordinary Shares to which the CFD is referenced......... ..0......

CFD closing out price between.



Further disclosure should be made where necessary so that the nature of the
dealings can be fully understood.

[bigface] 10/11/2004 18:29

Surely the bid and resuts have to coincide. If profits are expected to fall 25% THEN THATS ALREADY IN THE PRICE.

Good Luck

[fatmansays] 10/11/2004 17:52

What's the reckonin' for tomorrow.

Pray it be good news.

Read some nasty comments about Baugur being so much in the driving seat that if there is any bid it might start with a 9 or even an 8!. Results tmrw are expected to show a 25% profit fall.

[uknighted] 10/11/2004 11:50

Some-one's having a laugh :-)


FORM 38.5

CONNECTED EXEMPT MARKET-MAKERS:

DISCLOSURE UNDER RULE 38.5 OF THE CITY CODE ON TAKEOVERS AND MERGERS


Dealing in BIG FOOD GROUP (name of company)

.......................................
....
Class of Security ORDINARY SHARES

...............................................................
Date of disclosure 10-NOV-2004

...............................................................
Date of dealing 09-NOV-2004

...............................................................
Name of EMM UBS AG

...............................................................
Name of offeree / offeror with whom connected BIG FOOD GROUP

....................................
Total Number of securities bought 22


Highest price paid* 90.85GBP


Lowest price paid* 90.85 GBP


Total number of securities sold 0


Highest price received* 0 GBP


Lowest price received* 0 GBP

[bigface] 09/11/2004 22:58

If only your analysis were true sikhthetech.

I think we are being conditioned to be grateful for 110p and the manipulators have done such a good job that we would probably think ourselves lucky to get 100p.

My prediction is 103p say 100p plus the dividend, but I agree that the sites may suite Asda who could do with the Tesco Metro size stores to compete. Asda wouldn't be too fussed on price and will be more interested in turnover and will wait until Bauger formally bids before coming in. Opportunities to purchase 5bn of turnover don't come around every day and to the supermarkets turnover is everything.

[sikhthetech] 09/11/2004 21:57

The pension situation and costs control should become clearer this Thur when BFP announces their results.
However, if BFP split Iceland and Booker isnt the breakup value more than the current share price.
The other factor which doesnt really have a monetary value is the sites. Icelands have some very good locations which some of the larger players would die for. With Bauger increasing its stake in Somerfield, there maybe a possibility that they will bid for BFP, which in turn will push up Somerfield's price. Then Bauger can make some money out of selling its Somerfield stake. Interesting but who knows what tricks they have up their sleeve.
I think a bid of 110p will reveal other buyers and may push the price up to 140p mark....

[welshbloke] 09/11/2004 21:33

Folks - you're right the pension deficit was known before the potential bid.

Sales are indeed down but better margins and lower distribution costs should see the underlying profitability remain the same.

What may be of interest to Baugur is the massive overspend and delay in the SAP project at Booker. Rumour has it that the Iceland deal with Malcolm Walker is done and dusted. However the capital overspend at Booker leaves a big hole in thier accounts with none of the forecast benefit realised.

Glad I'm not the IT Director!

[robbie_3] 09/11/2004 14:44

OK Old Crow. Conspiracy theories, seems strange to me the timing of that pension hole press release shortly before Bauger shows its hand, especially as its such old news.

I still think someone else may be waiting in the wings, and Bauger may not have it all their own way, and they know it.

What's to stop the likes of Wall Mart expanding on the high street and making a bid.