Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[raffles the gentleman thug] 23/11/2016 14:56

and the trading update to look forward to warranty .. any marginal directional improve to their new reservations number of -20% and the shares head higher. And on balance stamp duty is becoming much less important given future trajectory of ASPs as they de-emphasis London in favour of the SE

[warranty] 23/11/2016 14:35

So no change in Stamp Duty hence the fall in share price today. Not really surprised for the reasons Raffles says so it looks like status quo until April. Also depends on the forthcoming results but at least we have the dividend to look forward to in the meantime.

[chiragmahe] 23/11/2016 09:22

@Rball why 32sp?

[raffles the gentleman thug] 22/11/2016 12:57

consensus phoenix would appear to be a change next April with main budget rather than now - any nothing would in any case be leaked since it would have an immediate adverse impact on transaction volumes

[phoenixw2] 22/11/2016 08:58

Autumn Statement due tomorrow. Going to be interesting to see if the govt water down George Osbourne's recent toxic stamp-duty revisions.

I suspect they'd like to, since it's throttling liquidity right across the market. But if they do alter it, they're going to want to have to avoid any perception of letting 'the rich' off the hook. And given it's the first May/Hammond budget, or perhaps more correctly a mini-budget, they're probably going to be more sensitive than usual to the direction and perceived 'tone' of policy changes. Anyway, fingers crossed!

[r ball] 22/11/2016 08:08

Encouraging. £32 anyone?

[raffles the gentleman thug] 16/11/2016 10:15

And BKG is simply too cheap IMO - appreciate its everyone's London property whipping boy, but the value is extraordinarily obvious

[raffles the gentleman thug] 16/11/2016 10:11

Great believer in Arthur Laffer's economic principles and think they will be warmly embraced by Trump, and perhaps when other world leaders finally figure out the benefits of fiscal over endless pointless monetary stimulus things might get better for all.

As for Stamp its a hard one, because despite these punitive rates the Government tax take is up nigh on 10% so far this tear. So Osborne's strategy is to a degree working exceedingly well. But I just can't for the life of me see how Britain can claim its open for business whilst charging excessive sums for relatively modestly priced London homes. So I believe change is coming, either next week or in the budget and its the simplest, lowest cost way for the Government to stimulate the economy over Brexit

[ianood] 16/11/2016 10:00

RTGT - agreed, high stamp duty is exactly the same as high income tax rates and as per the Laffer curve, instead of promoting activity actually reduces it.

[rcturner2] 16/11/2016 09:58

From the BDEV statement:

"Market conditions in London at higher selling prices remain more challenging. To mitigate these risks we have taken pricing action on a number of our sites in London. Further actions to de-risk London delivery include an exchanged build and sale agreement on a bespoke development of 39 apartments for a total value of GBP47m."

[raffles the gentleman thug] 16/11/2016 09:48

Doesn't really matter whether Telegraph article is rubbish or not - simple fact remains that quickest, easiest and cheapest way to stimulate the UK economy is to cut Stamp Duty - and the likelihood is that the public purse would even benefit

[deadly] 16/11/2016 09:30

The Telegraph article is total rubbish. Osborne's tax has achieved perfectly what he intended; a reduction in demand in the London area for the most expensive properties, for second homes elsewhere and for buy-to-let generally.

[armourer] 16/11/2016 09:15

See BDEV trading update

[crt131] 16/11/2016 09:06

Why the weakness today? any comments please?

Cheers
CRT

[phoenixw2] 15/11/2016 10:13

There is an interesting article in today's Telegraph re: how Osbourne's self-imagined politically perfect tax is causing a far wider negative impact than expected. Oh, and it's also *reduced* the governments direct [SDLT] and indirect tax take. Having failed on every measure to achieve what was intended we can only hope Hammond radically alters it.

[anley] 15/11/2016 10:06

and all the while you are discussing the EU there are foreign buyers walking in to my friends office in the City buying cheap UL central London flats and houses.

What happens if Hammond changes or gets rid of the Osbourne homes taxes on 17 November?..........................price will be £26+.

[phoenixw2] 15/11/2016 09:40

@RCT IMO some core parts of the EU despise 'Anglo-Saxon capitalism' from an ideological perspective, whilst at the same time envying the wider benefits it brings to society.

[r ball] 15/11/2016 09:18

It's the Euro / dollar clearing I'm bothered about as that's a key driver. Then again the natural home of Germany might be politically unacceptable to say Greece and Spain. Maybe a neutral country is the best way for clearing

[rcturner2] 15/11/2016 09:13

There is a widespread perception in finance that the EU is not positively inclined towards banking and related industries. This will effect whether firms relocate from London to the EU. Remember the advantage of London is the huge size of the capital that is available to clients in London. When company A takes over company B, the money for the deal has to come from somewhere and the underwriting capability of London is way ahead of anywhere in the EU.

[r ball] 15/11/2016 09:03

Land securities up by same % and they have significant London exposure.

[phoenixw2] 15/11/2016 08:33

@Arja. I've read the articles too but consider the headline numbers unlikely. The obstacles to just moving an operation/people to new countries are large and many. Take as an example Frankfurt; language, EU laws like the Working Time Directive, how many people would wish to move from a city like London to Frankfurt [if you've been you'll understand my point clearly], all the incremental expense of moving/maintaining expat staff, and maaaany other reasons.
Also if you're developing a career in say finance or IT you aim for progressive career growth. That's not just in job rank/responsibility, it might also include location. But note IME that only maybe 5-10% of staff are open to relocating *anywhere* but where they presently are, for 101 reasons. So the ones who expat might be considered pioneers of a sort, they move, hire local staff, set up the operation, x-train the local staff, and then often the expats leave, either back home or on the next foreign posting. Employing expats costs waaay more than employing locals because an expat package usually comes with a lot of benefits, it has to.
And on the point of career growth it's not just job-title but location. So if you're a say banker or IT-wizard in Paris or Frankfurt, and looking for international career growth then London would be a prime first posting. Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong are also good stepping-stones. New York is the big one, the prize posting. Per the Sinatra song, get posted there and in some ways you've made it. So moving from London to Frankfurt for 99+% of present staff in London is not going to be an attractive option. Like the BBC moving staff from London to Manchester but several times harder to find willing staff.
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@Farmai. Agree with Mango^
What I also do is look at the div history over the previous 2-3 years to give a decent working estimate of what it likely for this year/div. You can usually predict this to within a week or so. Currently my estimate arrived at in this way is:
X/D 15-Dec
R/D 16-Dec
P/D 27-Jan/17

Having used this approach previously IME there is perhaps a 50/50 chance some/all of those actual dates will shift a week back or forth. 1/2-year results on 2-Dec will give us the actuals.

[farmai] 14/11/2016 22:32

thank you bluemango

[bluemango] 14/11/2016 22:18

Should be confirmed on interim results date Friday 2nd Dec.

[farmai] 14/11/2016 21:34

Does anyone have an ex date for the next £1 dividend ? My understanding was it happened last year on 17 December but can't see any date confirmed on company website yet