Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[jfk69] 04/11/2016 14:25

1248 was price 5 years to todays date

[montyhedge] 04/11/2016 11:44

Wonder what price Odey will close his short, 1800p perhaps?

[rcturner2] 04/11/2016 09:53

love the comment at the end of the article:

"In that scenario, I’m not sure you’d want to be invested in anything apart from baked beans and bottled water."

[raffles the gentleman thug] 04/11/2016 09:50

Yep - very profitable strategy to buy on dips like today and sell on the rises - hedge funds must be getting killed in this share judging by their enthusiastic high volume short covering yesterday afternoon

[kev0856153] 04/11/2016 09:45

montyhedge4 Nov '16 - 08:44 - 2355 of 2356 2 1
Always 1 step forward, 2 back, slowly under 2000p.

Listen to Monty. He knows what he is talking about. He called LLoyds as a short @ 51p a few weeks back. You can but laugh.

BKG is the best stock for trading. There seems to be 5% swings nearly every day.

[cancun tango] 04/11/2016 09:33

JRWhat time we getting the portfolio update today?

[montyhedge] 04/11/2016 08:44

Always 1 step forward, 2 back, slowly under 2000p.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 03/11/2016 18:39

of course its a BKG board, but given its rare to see a contribution of more than a couple of posts a day on here I think one should welcome any comment even if only vaguely related ...

[phoenixw2] 03/11/2016 18:39

Quite: Over this past his toxic presence has appointed itself as something of a contrary weather-vane for the future. It should be very clear in which way the wind is now blowing.

[anley] 03/11/2016 18:11

Is this board ODEY or a firm called BKG......??????????

[phoenixw2] 03/11/2016 18:07

Quite, I'm up 200k today, and 250k this week, and hence am seriously relishing Odey's pain - bwahaha!
[LRE +6.9%/day +9.0%/WTD, another short he's car-crashed all over lol]

Now I'm not fooling myself that these are banked or realised gains, not yet, but Odey is toast IMO.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 03/11/2016 18:00

Odey Hedge-Fund Assets Dip 60% as Clients Shun ‘Bitter Pill’

Assets under management at Crispin Odey’s flagship hedge fund have plunged 60 percent this year after clients demanded their money back as his bearish bets fell apart in the wake of central-bank interventions and near-zero interest rates.

The Odey European Inc. fund held 422 million euros ($468 million) at the end of September, down from 1.1 billion euros at the start of the year, according to investor documents seen by Bloomberg News. The fund lost 37.5 percent during the period and 43 percent through Oct. 14. A spokesman for Odey Asset Management declined to comment.
“He still has a good track record and he is a contrarian,” said Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, which sells funds to individuals in Britain. “Investors do need to take that on board, though this year so far is no doubt a bitter pill to swallow.”

There’s been a widespread backlash by investors this year against poor returns and the high fees charged by money managers. A total of $60 billion has been pulled from hedge funds and cash is being moved away from big-name traders to computer-driven funds, where algorithms are employed to bet on macro-economic trends.

Rollercoaster Returns

While Odey’s company manages more than $8 billion, placing it among the largest hedge-fund firms in Europe, it’s the rollercoaster returns of his own European Inc. fund that attract attention. This year’s losses follow an almost 13 percent decline in 2015. Still, it’s up more than 900 percent since it started in June 1992, and in that time annual gains of more than 50 percent have been achieved four times.

“If you have been invested with someone like him for 10 years, you are still in the money and hope that he could recover,” said Jacob Schmidt, chief executive officer at investment advisory firm Schmidt Research Partners.

Hedge funds gained 4.2 percent on average through September this year, largely because of improved returns in the third quarter, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc.
Chicken House

Odey, 57, has acquired a colorful reputation among London’s hedge-fund managers. In 2012, he got planning permission to build a 130,000-pound Palladian-style chicken house on his country estate a two-hour drive northwest of London. He supported the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union and remains a vocal critic of central banks’ intervention in the economy.

Losses are accumulating at his fund as bets against equity markets fail to pay. The S&P 500 Index has risen 2.6 percent this year, while his biggest short bet by value -- Tullow Oil Plc -- has rallied almost 60 percent.

“Bull markets do not die of old age. They are murdered by central banks. How far away we are from that old adage," Odey wrote to investors in his February newsletter.

Thursday proved to be another rough day after a court ruled that the U.K. must hold a vote in Parliament before starting the two-year countdown to Brexit. Most of his 18 short bets rose, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Lancashire Holdings Ltd., Odey Asset Management’s fourth-largest short position by value, gained the most in eight years as the company posted better-than-expected profits.

In a letter to investors last week, Odey predicted that U.K. stocks could plummet 80 percent.

“An 80 percent fall suggests a pretty seismic collapse in capitalism," Hargreaves Lansdown’s Khalaf said. "In that scenario, I’m not sure you’d want to be invested in anything apart from baked beans and bottled water."

[raffles the gentleman thug] 03/11/2016 17:20

phoenix ... understand your point on cashflow negative, but just making point that everyone governed by leverage ratios, so if your capital is at risk you need to shrink both sides of the balance sheet, and there is some evidence of widespread covering of shorts at present.

[phoenixw2] 03/11/2016 14:19

RTGT: 'but his performance doesn't really matter - just making the broader point that one can't rush to judgment on why he might be covering individual stock shorts'
---------------

PW2: It certainly matters to his clients, and I think it's likely connected to the fact that he's bankrupting some of them right now :) And he might be deleveraging, but to free up net cash, covering of shorts is cashflow negative and not positive. So he's got to be doing some huge deleveraging net > sales of longs to free up cash...


RTGT: 'and that it might be part of a broader de-leveraging, and raising of cash either due to redemption activity or perhaps part of his recent call for the UK stock market to potentially fall 80%'
---------------------

PW2: If he's heeding his own warning you'd have thought that within the limitations of his balance sheet he'd have almost no long positions at all... rather than be covering shorts. Sounds to me like he's a last-gasp under-bear desperate for headlines to try and attract added fund-flow/liquidity. More new mug-investors vs his own capitulation?

[essentialinvestor] 03/11/2016 13:50

raffles, he is short Lookers for about £3 Million, I bought a small amount
of LOOK last week at 99 pence average
That has come down from around 1.80, so he must have done well on that trade.

[anley] 03/11/2016 13:02

Just in on my dealing desk.............

NHBC said that the slowdown in London was “not really a Brexit story”, noting a cooling off in the capital since 2013/14 following the registration of large sites including Nine Elms.
But year-on-year registrations in London were still higher than in pre-recession levels, with 19,702 new homes registered from October 2015 to September 2016 against 18,776 in October 2006 to September 2007.

Where does BKG fit in to all this?????????

[essentialinvestor] 03/11/2016 12:32

That makes more sense.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 03/11/2016 12:21

also essential ... as you probably know Odey have a number of different strategies and funds, with things like Opus only down 5% for year. But his Odey European Fund is the one which always gets the publicity and has been getting whacked the hardest

[raffles the gentleman thug] 03/11/2016 12:13

but his performance doesn't really matter - just making the broader point that one can't rush to judgment on why he might be covering individual stock shorts and that it might be part of a broader de-leveraging, and raising of cash either due to redemption activity or perhaps part of his recent call for the UK stock market to potentially fall 80%

[rcturner2] 03/11/2016 12:13

Just another idiot chancer.

[essentialinvestor] 03/11/2016 12:02

That is an extraordinary % decline, is that accurate?.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 03/11/2016 12:00

exactly ... self publicity is all well and good when you are making your clients money - but after losing half of their net worth invested with his firm in the space of just two years I doubt his wild prophecies count for much - other than to encourage more to head for the door as soon as possible.

Frankly find it amazing he felt the need to crow about the £200m of so he made over the referendum result to any journalist who would listen, when he had already lost a multiple of that before hand ... not sort of behaviour I would have thought would endear him to any existing investor

[phoenixw2] 03/11/2016 11:54

His thoughts hold no value to me if he's down 43% on the year, he's called it veery wrong and is now being forced to capitulate. No wonder he had the screaming headline overnight predicting the FTSE dropping 80%; he's desperate, facing the ruination of his business.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 03/11/2016 11:30

Don't think Odey's actions necessarily reflect his fundamental thoughts. When an absolute return fund with a capital preservation mandate loses 43% of its investors money in a single year - after losing money last year as well - they generally see redemptions and lots of em - so his covering of BKG short is probably nothing more than rapid deleveraging of his entire balance sheet.