Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[dr_smith] 31/10/2016 21:22

Red5
(Retired.. Extremely Dangerous... aka Bruce Willis?)

Seek advice before you buy, not after.
Don't take advice from anyone here, including me.
Flippant response, but practical ;-)
I am stacked up in property sector as it is one sector where demand ain't going anywhere anytime soon. IMO and most people probably. :-)
IMO, any buy at less than pre-BREXIT share price in this sector is a good one.

[red5] 31/10/2016 20:27

I have bought these shares today as a long term with a 8% divi it looked good to me what do people think of my purchase was it a good idea would there have been a better time to purchase them i would like some constructive thoughts please.

regards red5

[discodave4] 31/10/2016 19:47

Thanks Dr_Smith & PhoenixW2,Did go to their website the weekend to check and saw Half Year 31/10/16 and just assumed it was going to be issued today - didn't read the next event on their calendar for the 2nd Dec. Odd way of doing it IMV!.DD

[phoenixw2] 31/10/2016 10:01

Yep I got confused by the same as DD4 a few days ago. There was an error in the weekly e-mail I got from DividendMax suggesting results were due today. I suspect this error was picked up and repeated elsewhere in the media.
As Dr. suggests, 1/2yr results to 31-Oct-16 will be released on 2-Dec-16.
------------------

What follows is simply my estimation based on the typical past timing between results and div payment. I.e. it's E+EO until confirmed by BKG.
X/D 15-Dec
R/D 16-Dec
P/D 27-Jan-17

[dr_smith] 31/10/2016 09:24

This link shows today is half year end, but results for this period not available until 2/12/16.
hxxp://www.berkeleygroup.co.uk/investor-information/financial-diary

[discodave4] 31/10/2016 09:00

Weren't they supposed to issue H1 results today?DD

[raffles the gentleman thug] 30/10/2016 09:02

Chinese investor eyes up high-end house builder Cala Homes for takeover

[raffles the gentleman thug] 28/10/2016 16:54

That panic is exactly what the market is like where I live in Surrey too, with £1.5m new homes built by Galliford's Linden Homes which haven't shifted in two years despite them paying the stamp duty for you.

Personally I think confidence in new homes over £1m has been destroyed in the UK as a result of repeated Government interference by the Conservative party and threats of interference by way of mansion taxes from the Lib Dems and Labour. Folks no longer feel confident to invest a large slug of their new worth into million pound plus property.

But this is exactly why everyone is lobbying for change in policy and stamp duty, and exactly why I believe its coming - because it delivers the greatest economic stimulus for the country for the least possible cost - or even a negative cost should transaction volumes be positively stimulated

[panic investor] 28/10/2016 13:38

Essential I was referring to one and two bed flats starting at 250k - town houses at 750+. - a development I know has been passed through 3 agents and out of 160 available only 80 sold approx High end over 5m are seeing reductions and some have been on the market for 2 years - but I suppose your picky when your looking at stuff like that

[essentialinvestor] 27/10/2016 20:14

So new builds can't sell at all in Surrey, Slight exaggeration me thinks
as live here.

Now whether more aggressive discounts are being offered and how that may
read through to margins is more interesting.

Mentioned the share price weakness in Crest earlier this week, they operate in a
similar geographic area to BKG, both companies began life in my area Weybridge.

I would put BKG in its own league quality wise though.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 27/10/2016 19:37

Not sure thats the right way to look at it kev0856153. The reason they are paying out 43% of the market cap in dividends is because they are deliberately downsizing it from £3.25bn of forward gross margin to a normalised level of £2bn - so they don't need the incredible surplus capital generation coming through in next couple of years.

So ex the divs you are effectively only at risk for £13 of the current share price, or £1.8bn of market capitalisation. Its your shout what you think they can earn annually on a £2bn of rolling forward deliverable gross margin but in my own opinion a free cashflow margin of around 15% is comfortably achievable ...

[kev0856153] 27/10/2016 18:50

It's attractive because you are getting paid for holding the shares.
Last year for interim divi was ex-divi in december with payment in January.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 27/10/2016 18:01

kev0856153 - for the avoidance of doubt it simply means you pick up £1 of dividends every six months through to and including 2021. Next payment coming up in December - some might find that attractive - others might not.

[montyhedge] 27/10/2016 16:06

Call this right though.

[kev0856153] 27/10/2016 15:26

Hi Monty
How is that call on LLoyds working out? Your logic was it was a definite short given the government announced they were selling. Well 2 weeks later and that's been an absolutely shocking call. One of many you've made I might add.

[kev0856153] 27/10/2016 15:23

The interesting thing is this is now down to the closing low-point after BREXIT was announced. I think all the other builders are now well above that level.

[kev0856153] 27/10/2016 15:16

raffles
For the avoidance of doubt can you explain what is a 4.4% bi-annual yield? Do you mean 8.8% over a full year? thanks.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 27/10/2016 13:46

with you on that gostevie63 ... with all the idiots selling ETFs on this sector at the moment thinks like BKG are getting extremely cheap. Right now this this offering a 4.4% bi-annual yield right through to 2021, and the implied value of the company is only £1.8bn, when forward deliverable gross margin is sliding back from £3.25bn to £2bn, on which they can comfortably achieve a 15% free cash flow yield.

In my opinion market has this particular one wrong

[gostevie63] 27/10/2016 13:14

I bought more this morning for both my main CREST account and for my SIPP.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 27/10/2016 12:32

so in short I am now buying shed loads since I struggle to see the downside case here - in fact actually has a much more compelling valuation argument than any other company in the sector

[raffles the gentleman thug] 27/10/2016 10:50

These shares starting to get stupidly cheap now - mkt cap adjusted for dividends to come is barely £1.8bn which is broadly the same as where the rolling deliverable gross margin will level out at - not screaming value but not far off

[essentialinvestor] 27/10/2016 10:12

Dividend adjustment coupled with a weaker sector today would think.

[rcturner2] 27/10/2016 10:06

Barratt shares down sharply today, anyone know what that is about?