Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[cancun tango] 27/9/2016 11:07

Mazel tov JR.

[jrphoenixw2] 27/9/2016 10:39

If it weren't for the inbox notification from this chat CT I wouldn't have looked at the price today, and now I've had to scroll past it I still don't care. I buy now with a 10-20 year horizon [perhaps the middle-years of retirement before I can start progressively winding things down]. Perhaps also why I tend to consider myself as buying at %x income rather than at £x outright; the opposite of say day-trading, I'm seeking say a good/steady 25yr income stream.

ps. Oi vey indeed, and kind of that man to gently guide me away from gemology [at that time] as a career.

[cancun tango] 27/9/2016 09:05

Oi vey, that's a lot of shekels on a falling knife JR. Even if its a gold knife, already.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 27/9/2016 08:57

thx eeza ... much appreciated, I will take a look.

[jrphoenixw2] 26/9/2016 19:07

I wasn't into the stocks, I was headed for the 'London Clearing House' [de Beers controlled, as was the entire trade then IIRC]. Wanted to be a diamond grader, but ended up on the LIFFE floor instead.

My wife appreciates my insight into diamonds though, steers us well clear of ... the less than optimal offerings :)

[catswhiskas] 26/9/2016 18:43

Hi jrphoenixw2 I use to invest in diamond shares some 10 years ago New millennium resources and African diamonds were my favourites both ended in disaster the former turned out to be a scam.It was only yesterday that I found out that a fellow poster mclellan who wrote daily on these boards sadly past away last year.There was another famous poster at the time Anomolous who Sussed out new millennium and I sold out before the sh!t hit the fan anyone know what happened with Anomolous.

[eeza] 26/9/2016 16:47

@raffles

You may like to have a look at UAI - regeneration specialist. Chart is not pretty but all RNS' from the Co for the past 6 mths show the way forwared. Gonna be a slow burner but very good entry point, imo, for the patient.
UAI bb has a link to the latest 4 projects, posted today.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 26/9/2016 16:14

I topped up too phoenix - very harsh reaction, and no fundamental basis for this company to be weaker today. Ordinarily one might thing getting 40% of market cap back in cash might just dampen the volatility a tadge - but guess thats too much to hope

[jrphoenixw2] 26/9/2016 16:00

Just topped-up with 5k at 2550p; the jitters seem overdone to me. But I expect other opportunities will come as BREXIT is navigated.

[rcturner2] 26/9/2016 14:49

Yes I thought that too. The table that calculated each company's NAV based on their ROE was very interesting. Only Berkeley has a NAV ahead of the share price.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 26/9/2016 13:30

Well worth reading the IC article from Friday on the builders. Think their analysis is flawed, however despite this BKG sticks out as being head and shoulders the best value in the sector

[woodhawk] 26/9/2016 11:44

That'll do me. Thanks jr!

[jrphoenixw2] 26/9/2016 11:26

200p/Current px, so say 200/2483 = 7.86% give or take.

[woodhawk] 26/9/2016 11:16

What's the divi at this level, must be about 8%? Just bought a shedload.

[rcturner2] 26/9/2016 07:16

They only have to declare any changes when it crosses a single % barrier. So once they have 9% of the shares (say) they only need to notify when it crosses 10%.

[jrphoenixw2] 23/9/2016 14:34

I'm surprised RT' that a major investor can buy/accumulate via brokers and not be obliged to declare their position. Even via brokers, and even via the likes of long-settlement I'd have thought they'd have a disclosible beneficial interest from trade-date. Don't know; been away from that coal-face from a looong time.

- I reckon BKG are not in a huge rush to develop in London. Not while the newly ramped SDLT is killing their target clientele. The Tories cunning plan to milk foreign investors isn't going to work, how long it takes them to realise this and adjust policy is anyone's guess. Mea culpas don't tend to come fast if at all in politics, though May has the virtue and latitude of being a new broom.

[malcolmmm] 23/9/2016 14:02

Nice to hear that raffles, also a nice rise so far today

[raffles the gentleman thug] 23/9/2016 09:39

Yep and these same hedge funds they have had those positions on pre-referendum and post referendum. Blackrock are saying they bought Wednesday, but for this volume it must have been Friday in the 2550s and sitting on their prime brokers books for a couple of days - but 10% is a big sign of confidence.

Savills and London sentiment didn't help, but I though the survey was better than I would have anticipated and also Berkeley is massively downsizing in London, and certainly unlikely to do any new premium launches - hence why they are managing deliverable gross margin down from over £3bn to £2bn's.

They recently got planning on a 425 house site in Surrey which they are now negotiating with planners to advance start date, which was dependent on Thames Water sewerage upgrades - so there is a lot going on in the group, just not a lot of new launch activity in London until the tax environment improves.

[jrphoenixw2] 23/9/2016 09:09

Agreed, hmmm but then again it happened yesterday too and the Blackrock RNS followed. Good job I don't often follow the market in real-time [with volume data], or I'd probably never get out the house ;)

Interesting situation, Blackrock's new long vs any remaining BREXIT-era shorters. [On checking] No major 'notifiable' short-covering for c3 weeks now. hxxp://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B02L3W35/all

Current shorts are Odey at -1.91% [bet he choked on his croissant at the open this morning hehe]
Blue Mountain at -0.66%
Adelphi at -.55%
Those are the only three with a position shorter than -0.5%

[raffles the gentleman thug] 23/9/2016 08:29

not sure I would read too much into that, market only open for 30mins - but its encouraging smart people like Blackrock find value in it here - feels like US investors are the only ones seeing value in the sector at present

[jrphoenixw2] 23/9/2016 08:25

It spiked again on the open, +2% or so to 2651/52. Going in that aggressively [it wilted right back to 2620] suggests someone is buying some fat chunks and they don't seem to be going to too much trouble to disguise that fact. Hmmm...

[raffles the gentleman thug] 23/9/2016 07:58

Looks like BlackRock following you Phoenix ... moving to over 10% position in the shares this morning. No doubt they too have worked out only 62% of their capital is actually at risk, and they are getting a yield to 2021 maturity of round 12%

[jrphoenixw2] 22/9/2016 16:50

The last piece of my eventual completed portfolio/puzzle is another top-up of BKG, about another 10% of my current holding. But I'm well margined and my cautious pre-retirement phase head suggests I hold fire until I bank the mega-chunky Lancashire PLC div in December. I'd love to get it done and dusted now.... but will endeavour to be patient :)