Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[raffles the gentleman thug] 03/12/2016 07:27

After Friday's meteoric rise BKG still only a £3.6bn enterprise value earning £3bn of profits within 5 years and more in free cash flow. I calls that rather cheap montyhedge ....

[garycook] 03/12/2016 02:18

montyhedge
1 Dec '16 - 09:46 - 28432 of 28453 0 0
Value trap, 182p. If dividend cut next time, I expect back to 165p.Deadly silence from Monty moved on to VOD and getting it very wrong there also.You have to laugh.Just do the opposite of what Monty spouts Ha Ha Ha

[r ball] 03/12/2016 02:17

Warranty: not important. Given that 70% of ftse companies are dominated by overseas fx earnings the hurdle is now 20% more in dollar terms than it was in May.

[rbonnier] 02/12/2016 22:20

LoL at montyhedge is Taylor Wimpey going to stage some sort of recovery like this I wonder. tw just seems hopeless can't stage any rally or anything what's going on there any ideas anyone.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 22:14

Don't know . Montyhedge is the one to ask. You know the poster whose been fretting about empty two bedroom flats outside his train window since 23 quid ...

[curriedquaker] 02/12/2016 22:13

Difficult to predict as it depends on other companies valuations at quarter end. £29.00 would give us a market cap of is just over £4 billion and touch and go for a lift into the foootsie. £30.00 would be a good bet to get us in.

[warranty] 02/12/2016 21:20

What price do we need for re-entry into the FTSE?

[phoenixw2] 02/12/2016 17:24

'kin ell +8.45% on the day. Topped the FTSE-350. Go on my son!
+242k on the week. As a kid I'd go out and buy a kin Bentley. ...No, I'm riding this one and will enjoy the jam tomorrow...

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 14:32

Hedge fund manager Crispin Odey lost about 369 million euros (313.03 million pounds) in the year to Nov. 14 despite being one of the biggest financial winners of Britain's vote to leave the European Union.

The Odey European Fund lost 44.1 percent by mid-November, reducing its assets to 468.15 million euros from more than 837 million euros in January, according to investor documents

... I dare say his £40m short position in Berkeley not helping today either ...

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 14:11

Think jimbox1 summed it up quite nicely with post 2479 this morning

"The new policy on shareholder returns makes a lot of sense. If the company buys back shares when the company is fundamentally undervalued (as it is now), then the eventual dividend per share could be higher. Shareholders should benefit more from this compared with just straight dividends with no buy-back."

[phoenixw2] 02/12/2016 14:05

Ebbing slightly now but that's just some typical Friday pm off-risking and profit-taking. So I agree, I see this rally as having legs.

This morning on reading the results I was uncertain about the split div/buy-back plan - well, not any more.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 13:55

personally can see another round of this type of performance continuing next week

[phoenixw2] 02/12/2016 13:50

I wrote earlier, with heavy irony: 'Someone should remind Cannacord a target price is a 12-month view, not a 1-day view'

And sure enough within a space of just 4-5 hours it hit Cannacord's Target Price of 2750, and is through it. If there is a wooden-spoon for the worst stock forecast of the year, surely that is it? Haha that analyst is going to have a mega w/e of p-taking from his colleagues!

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 13:42

still screamingly cheap phoenix ... anyone grumbling about the dividends (or lack thereof) might perhaps start to understand management's frustration with the valuation here - off to buy some TW now - can easily see that reprice above 160s from here

[phoenixw2] 02/12/2016 13:38

Looks like it's taken out c2775p. Bear-squeeze!!!

[phoenixw2] 02/12/2016 13:37

Lol I spotted those juicy director purchases at 190 Strand with interest too!

You mention p/e potentially as low as 5x, hmmm I don't know if it would plumb that depth. Just seems it'd be too much of a screaming bargain esp with a 'guaranteed' forward div programme in place, for the share price not to rally and raise the p/e figure with it.

Don't know, but on lovely days like this we are free to dream :)

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 13:18

and for those unduly worrying about build cost inflation: "Build cost inflation has continued to ease and is currently running at around 4% per annum."

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 13:14

phoenix ... not sure PE matters a whole lot but just interesting to see the average PE over the period is just 6.5x or so. I assume their old three year target of £2bn of pre-tax earnings still stands given the cancellation rate hasn't materially changed, in which case we will have a couple of years when its trading down to around 5x earnings or so before earnings normalise at a lower rate in 2019, 2020 and 2021.

Amusing thing about the statement is directors buying two expensive flats in 190 Strand, worth £5.1m. Bet those predicting the imminent demise of this company weren't expecting them to put their money on the table quite like this.

[nfs] 02/12/2016 13:10

Your P/E ratio is the pre tax one,normally you use the post tax numbers

[phoenixw2] 02/12/2016 13:05

Kind to suggest that Raff but I've just been reading* the daily tech analysis for the FTSE for a few years now so have gained a small grasp on some of the bigger events with consequence. [Such as a material gap-up on open w/greater than average volume - which I'm pretty sure is what happened, I'll check the volume later].

Interesting revisiting the P/E, that's mad. Wonder if BKG will top the FTSE-350 risers today... was looking that way earlier.

* at IGIndex and FXEmpire

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 12:59

2706p still feels screamingly cheap to me ....

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 12:14

exactly phoenix .... assuming they make £3bn of pre-tax over the five years, spread equally thats £600m a year meaning our PE is only around 6.5x - massive discount to sector - although I suspect the earnings will be front end loaded to 2018 ...

[phoenixw2] 02/12/2016 12:10

Someone should remind Cannacord a target price is a 12-month view, not a 1-day view :)

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 12:09

Not as clever as you phoenix ... but I do know that a £3.7bn market cap, or £3.5bn adjusted for net cash feels rather cheap when they are going to generate around the same in pre-tax profits between now and 2021. Can't find another company coming close to that

[dr_smith] 02/12/2016 11:52

No surprises for me in results, market seeing 5% up, other sector co's not benefiting at circa 1% down in line with FTSI.
The only thing I can predict is the unpredictability. ;-)