Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[phoenixw2] 02/12/2016 11:23

The +2.9% gap-up on the open this morning has created a technical support level/range for the share price. I.e. between the Thursday close at 2545 and this morning's open at 2619.
I haven't looked at the traded volume yet, but if it's materially above the daily average then I'd reframe the^ as a 'major technical support level/range'...

[philanderer] 02/12/2016 10:50

2nd dec Peel Hunt buy tp 4500p
2nd dec Canaccord buy tp 2750p

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 10:45

personally am buying more here - hard to find a cheaper company in UK with better visibility

[phoenixw2] 02/12/2016 09:30

The threat of buy-backs at unknown strike prices creates an unknown/reduced perimeter around the bears playground, or more to the point it caps their potential returns from any downside. Now if you were a bear and short BKG and used those funds to go long elsewhere, you are still having to write fat BKG divs on your short whilst having greatly reduced chances of profiting from a falling share price.

It sounds like it is a potentially cunning plan. BKG don't have to do any buy-backs to have already made themselves a relatively unattractive place for bears to loiter.

- Couple more days like this and we'd be looking at re-promotion to the FTSE-100. And that would be utter Bearmageddon :) I suspect there'll be some frantic short-covering going on which might move us into re-promotion territory... maybe. This buy-back plan is pretty damned shrewd IMHO...

[woodhawk] 02/12/2016 08:40

Excellent results, I shall look forward to the great, fat divis going forward and a potential substantial rise in the share price due to the proposed buy backs. Marvelous. Even at £35 this would be returning circa 6%.

[r ball] 02/12/2016 08:31

For those of you who bought at the time of the Saad financial issues then your base cost net of divs is about £3.50.

[jimbox1] 02/12/2016 08:27

The new policy on shareholder returns makes a lot of sense. If the company buys back shares when the company is fundamentally undervalued (as it is now), then the eventual dividend per share could be higher. Shareholders should benefit more from this compared with just straight dividends with no buy-back.

[anley] 02/12/2016 08:23

Once again the City does not understand just how the building industry works especially how Mr Pidgley always gets it right with the "big" calls and as done since he went public.

Thanks to the management for making me a great deal of money and continue the good work for shareholders.

[salpara111] 02/12/2016 08:17

The whole housebuilding sector has been priced for something not far short of Armageddon and despite every single housebuilder issuing upbeat updates since brexit share prices have not really recovered and those that are London weighted like Berkeley and Crest Nicholson have done worst so hopefully we can finally see some sense return to the sector.

[phoenixw2] 02/12/2016 08:07

The buy-back strategy should act as a warning call to shorts; interesting to see if it flushes any of them out *prior* to any buy-backs taking place.


ps. up c100p on the open. Short-covering?

[garycook] 02/12/2016 07:58

Sure,but Pidgeley wants a fair SP,and a decent dividend.I think this what it is all about.If any BKG shareholder does not agree,then switch into TW for a 9% yield.The Market seems to like the results and buy backs up 4%

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 07:45

But the point is Gary at these prices they could buy back the whole friggin comapny in five years if they so wished ....

[garycook] 02/12/2016 07:39

As expected,but with the option of buy backs,if agreed by shareholder,s.Which IMHO,will improve the share price I assume Buy backs will occur when BKG share price is lower than the norm eg £24,thus increasing value for shareholders,but with a reduced dividend in that period of buy backs,when it occurs.If you look at HSBC for example buy backs has improved the SP,by over 40%.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 07:36

Old target was pre tax profits of £2bn in three years to 2018, so new target capturing balance of this. But point is £3bn of pre-tax is just under the £3.3bn enterprise value of the company. That's why management is hacked off with the absurdly low valuation of the company and wishes to do something about it. Evidently some folks won't like that but with a five year forward yield touching 9% it wasn't like anyone ever seriously believed they would be ever be earning this money to pay such dividends anyway. If they had, then the shares would have been £35 and idiots like montyhedge wouldn't have been peddling their rubbish

[r ball] 02/12/2016 07:29

Makes reference to new target. To save me wading through stuff - what was the old one? I'm not a great fan of buybacks. A hard cash dividend looks better in my bank account. Well wait to see market reaction. +1000p would be nice.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 02/12/2016 07:09

Profits pretty much equivalent to the entire enterprise value of the business over the next five years looks fine by me ....

[raffles the gentleman thug] 01/12/2016 14:12

well expectations are pretty low Gary, and unless cancellation rates materially change they are unlikely to miss earnings this year or next. Big question is whether Sterling back to 1.27 against the dollar results in some sustainable sector rotation back to these cheap domestic cyclical names

[garycook] 01/12/2016 14:01

Looking strong today in a down market, expecting good results tomorrow.

[rcturner2] 01/12/2016 13:57

that's my answer to the question I was asked

[rcturner2] 30/11/2016 19:33

anley I was one of the lucky ones who bought at £25 and sold at £35

I had a nibble recently but sold again very quickly

[dandanactionman] 30/11/2016 16:57

All the following is IMHOAppears huge volume at close auction.

[anley] 30/11/2016 15:42

If you buy the shares on the basis that the business will just pay out dividends then I will take that on a yield of 8% and the underlying land bank going up in value each year and the DIVIDEND tax free up to £5000 per person..........hell the small investor would jump on that...........

RCTURNER are you a shareholder?