Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[phoenixw2] 25/11/2016 13:03

I check Spreadex occasionally during the day, they produce morning, afternoon and evening market updates which are short and insightful.
On checking earlier I noticed these updates today have another, 'Stock of the day' added in between re: BKG.
hxxps://www.spreadex.com/financials/market-analysis/financial-trading-blog/25-nov-16/

It's only 3-4 paragraphs long and ends...
'In terms of the company’s interim statement next Friday, investors will want reassurance that things have continued to recover in the months following the referendum. They will also be after an update on the London housing market, especially given that a recent report showed that home-buyers in the capital are paying 750% more stamp duty tax than people elsewhere in the country.
Berkeley Group Holdings PLC has a consensus rating of ‘Hold’ with an average target price of £32.96.'

[anley] 25/11/2016 09:48

But you forget that BKG sold some of their developments last year (2015) and have only been building out and selling those which have bids on them,,,,,,,,,,refer to their last report and accounts.

These guys have called the ups and downs of the property market right so many times that I have lost count.

Forget forecasting and let the board tell us what is going on.....in the meantime have yourself a big yield all secured on prime assets.

[montyhedge] 24/11/2016 19:56

London Property Prices May Be Falling Faster Than You ThinkBy Dara Doyle - 24 Nov 2016, 13:31:23Automobiles sit in the streets outside rows of residential housing in this aerial photograph taken over London, U.K., on Tuesday, June 16, 2015. About 32,000 new homes a year are expected to be completed in London for the next five years, about 10,000 less annually than London Mayor Boris Johnson's target, broker Savills Plc said in March. Photographer: Matthew Lloyd/BloombergU.K. real estate prices may be dropping at a much faster pace than official reports indicate, according to the Irish agency that manages property loans acquired from bailed-out banks.Reports since Britain's vote to leave the European Union point to the value of land in central London declining by more than 10 percent in the past year, while house prices are 11 percent below their 2014 peak, said Frank Daly, chairman of Ireland's National Asset Management Agency, known as NAMA."Our analysis suggests that the fall in U.K. prices may be much higher than official estimates," Daly told lawmakers in Dublin on Thursday. "Analysts are forecasting that prices will fall further over the coming years, partly in response to a weakening economy and to the likelihood that companies will move staff overseas in response to Brexit."Irish ministers and executives are closely monitoring economic and market developments in the U.K. because the country is Ireland's largest trading partner along with the U.S. Earlier this month, Stephen Vernon, chairman of Dublin-based Green Property, said London's real estate market is "tanking by the day." Office values in the City of London financial district fell the most in at least seven years in July after the Brexit vote in June, according to CBRE Group Inc. Home prices in the U.K. capital fell for a fifth month in August, the worst streak since 2009, as higher taxes and the referendum result damped demand.Explore Housing Prices in Londonproperty_HPNAMA took over billions of euros in risky debt following the financial crisis in 2008 and Ireland's international bailout. The agency's debtors have 800 million pounds ($995 million) in assets located in Britain, down from 12 billion pounds in 2011. Among loans NAMA took over were those linked to the Battersea Power Station site on the banks of the River Thames. It sold them on in 2012.More articles on London

[montyhedge] 24/11/2016 19:56

Interesting

[anley] 24/11/2016 12:01

The price seems to be steady on the basis that there was no news to rock the housebuilders share price.

Waiting for the BKG new/results..............that should clear the air for the buyers for dividends and the sellers who are clearing out.

[rcturner2] 24/11/2016 11:25

Indeed EI and more than 60% of properties have no mortgage on them anyway.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 24/11/2016 11:04

Suggest you study a set of accounts from a UK lender and you will see risk on mortgage book never been lower

[malcolmmm] 24/11/2016 10:35

It was on Newsnight or a political news item about a week ago, if I recall that at this time 2nd mortgages were outstripping new mortgages

[essentialinvestor] 24/11/2016 10:33

Approx 1 in 4 properties in the UK are now bought for cash.

[rcturner2] 24/11/2016 09:26

Can you provide a source for the statement that "most mortgages taken out are second loans", that's a new one on me.

There may well be trouble head for mortgages when people have to renew at higher rates, but as always it is massively overblown.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 24/11/2016 09:13

I think crash unlikely any time soon as government here will just keep up the same old mantra of looking through short term inflation, and hold rates low. But in a sense the bond market is already doing the work for them and mortgage financing will only creep up from here. The big question is will this Government be able to palm off the demands of the 6m public sector workers including doctors, nurses, teachers, police etc etc if and when inflation hits 3% on an annualised basis. They can waffle about Brexit uncertainty all they like but these folks ain't gonna sit back whilst their living standards plummet.

Personally though I like the home builders and think they will do exceptionally well from here, BKG included

[malcolmmm] 24/11/2016 09:10

When interest rates do rise ,servicing the debt will be much more difficult, what then?

[malcolmmm] 24/11/2016 09:06

To me the world has turned mad with these unheard of low interest rates in recent years , of course house prices have rocketed. Most mortgages taken out are second loans. Sooner or later there will be a crash imo.
The most dangerous remark imo opinion is 'Its all different now' Well I can assure you it is not, remember the dot com boom/bust

[raffles the gentleman thug] 24/11/2016 08:57

I will remind you of that returner2 .. in the coming years when we spend more on servicing debt than we do on defence and education - look whats happening to gilt yields right now - and roll the clock forward eight months when public sector employees start their inevitable inflation induced wage demands - wonder what Hammond's message to them will be

[malcolmmm] 24/11/2016 08:53

My local poor house was turned into trendy apartments last year

[rcturner2] 24/11/2016 08:49

In the year 2015/2016 the UK total borrowing per head will be less than £1500. I cannot see how such a figure has any impact on living standards such that the removal of that borrowing would have a drastic effect. Similarly the total amount is well covered.

A genuine question, if your neighbour said to you "I borrowed £1500 last year and my total debt is £20k" would you immediately think, Christ that's risky he is about to enter the poor house?

[malcolmmm] 24/11/2016 08:44

Anyone for a good short

[raffles the gentleman thug] 24/11/2016 08:42

I am sorry but total borrowing is galloping ahead of the pace of economic growth and everyone is fully aware of that. Only thing protecting us from a more immediate adjustment is the fact that we borrow on an average duration of around 12 years not 1 year. So the adjustment is coming, its only a matter or time - and frankly the adjustment has already been felt by many in society over the last eight years.

And the really disturbing thing is that despite the huge currency adjustment since the referendum, our trade picture with the rest of the world is barely changed - and that should be ringing alarm bells.

Only one way out of this which is aggressive fiscal adjustment, but so far UK politicians don't get this. They will do eventually but it will probably take our debt to GDP to rise over 100% before than happens. Still at the current rate and with Brexit impact still to come there shouldn't be too long to wait

[rcturner2] 24/11/2016 08:29

raffles, just because we borrow now does not mean our living standards have to drop in the future. Although the total borrowing figure always looks huge, on a per head basis it is actually not that big (about £20k) and is dwarfed by the total assets of the country.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 24/11/2016 08:23

Catwhiskas ... where have you been all these years - the UK economy has been gloomy for a long long time - and irrespective of Brexit we were still having to borrow £60/70bn a year just to try to continue to sustain this stupid illusion of prosperity we have been manically gripping on to for the past eight years. But it doesn't go on forever and one day our living standards have to drop markedly.

Re BKG think worth waiting for results and dividend IMHO

[catswhiskas] 23/11/2016 19:02

Tonight's news painting a really gloomy picture of the defecit the economy and brexit think these will sink along with all the other builders in the coming weeks.

[malcolmmm] 23/11/2016 15:05

hopefully these will recover somewhat, the gov has set aside quite a chunky amount for inner city housing I believe

[malcolmmm] 23/11/2016 15:02

Am buying for the div now on the drop