Bellway Share Discussion Threads

[dr_smith] 15/5/2014 08:47

P.S. - a surge would likely mean a following bust/trough

[dr_smith] 15/5/2014 08:43

DD - Re Carney, that is the only explanation for the dive, BUT,:

"We continue to think that interest rates will remain on hold until the second half of next year, later than the markets and most economists expect,"

So, as he is saying 'later than expected' that should be a positive.
Also, the increases are to assist managed sustainable growth without bubble and bust, which is again what is good for the housebuilders.

If anything is holding back the builders, I understand it is increasing the workforce - and we are in a time of low unemployment, so to have a managed yet sustained increase in demand rather than a surge, is again good for us in the longer term.

I've put my money where my mouth is and topped up in this sector, as I feel I'm looking a gift horse in the mouth. :-)

All IMO of course.

[discodave4] 14/5/2014 21:24

Yep.........if as you say it turns out that way. Income or capital, you pays your money and takes your choice.DD

[essentialinvestor] 14/5/2014 21:05

Dave BKG plan to return £13 to shareholders by 2021, PSN also plan on returning
approx £1.9 Billion within the same time frame.

It's an incredible level of return if it works out that way.

[discodave4] 14/5/2014 20:58

Agree, div cover of 2 would be nice but having a quick look only Berkley has current cover of 2.2, and Bovis is on a par with Bellway at 3.3.Carney mentioning increasing interest rates has impacted on share price today IMV.DD

[essentialinvestor] 14/5/2014 14:59

Dr, yes points well made.
I do think divi cover at 3x though is perhaps excessively cautious.

[dr_smith] 14/5/2014 14:31

To my mind capital return is only appropriate when they have cash surplus and ROCE would otherwise be eroded. If they can take that capital, which would otherwise be returned and re-invest in additonal projects, that's effectively giving an even higher return.
If they give capital back, that means fewer new builds in future at a time when market is most receptive to the extra housing. Make hay while the sun shines. If market tops out and new properties aren't so much in demand, then that's the time to consider returning (spare) cash, which isn't likely IMO for the next 1-2 years and probably beyond.

If you want to sell some of your shares, or top slice, that's always an option for your own plans to give cash and/or diversify holdings.

All IMO :-)

[essentialinvestor] 14/5/2014 11:49

They need to do more on capital return imv.

[5bag] 13/5/2014 12:20

Agree re:value. And certainly more conservative on capital returns than some other players. Should get back past 1600 easily in due course IMO.

[essentialinvestor] 12/5/2014 11:58

Bellway is the best value listed builder at these levels imv,
the flip side is that it does not currently have the aggressive
capital return plans of some others in the sector.

[yewtrees] 12/5/2014 11:43

Launch of Bellway's North Clapham apartments at the weekend.

[discodave4] 09/5/2014 22:37

No problem Dr,Confusing market since March, nobody seems to know what's going on.GLDD

[dr_smith] 09/5/2014 09:05

Thank-you for the link DD.
It's what we know already, but nice to know we're not the only ones whose expectations differ to what market share price implies.

[discodave4] 08/5/2014 20:07

Article basically says no bubble and BVS, BDEV & PSN are still looking cheap based on 2014 & 2015 forecast PE's. But, Bellway (not mentioned in article) is even cheaper than these three when comparing 2014 PE 10.1 and 2015 PE only 8.1 (according to broker forecasts from MorningStar site).http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2014/05/08/3-housebuilders-set-to-soar-persimmon-plc-barratt-developments-plc-and-bovis-homes-group-plc/http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?Site=uk&id=0P000090RB&LanguageId=en-GB&SecurityToken=0P000090RB%5D3%5D0%5DE0WWE$$ALLDD

[dr_smith] 07/5/2014 20:32

I think you are right DD, though I don't see it myself as a negative.
I'm quite happy with the lower share price as it represents a top up opportunity.

[discodave4] 07/5/2014 20:09

All house builders down today, maybe due to:hTTp://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/construction-property/article4082246.eceDD

[discodave4] 05/5/2014 15:19

5bag, think your right.The following article (11th April) gives a good overview of what's been happening lately:http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-2602533/Have-housebuilder-shares-hit-wall.htmlDD

[5bag] 30/4/2014 14:51

A natural 'bottom' dave, formed by bargain hunters IMO.

this drop has exposed earnings 'value'. Divi payers too. What's not to like, especially during economic recovery, with a housing shortage?

[discodave4] 30/4/2014 14:44

Strange, all builders blue today after falls all month, cannot find any news, no complaints though.DD

[5bag] 30/4/2014 13:15

Bought a few. Looks too cheap now imo.

[discodave4] 29/4/2014 19:21

The articlehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10792518/The-shares-to-buy-as-UK-growth-returns-to-form.htmlDD

[discodave4] 29/4/2014 18:30

Essential, thanks,Had read an article recently (think from the Telegraph) about funds rotating & how the momentum shares like house builders were being off loaded for retail.Will keep holding but not nice seeing constant drops.GLDD

[yewtrees] 29/4/2014 16:35

I have just re-read Bellway's last interims, and they were very good. I today spoken with someone who works at one of the South East housing sites and they have said the housing market remains strong. So I am happy with my holding here.
Redrow had a statement today, and their share price has finished up.

[essentialinvestor] 29/4/2014 14:47

Rotation in to less cyclical sectors and unlike PSN and BKG there is no
major capital return through special dividends with BWY.

I think they need to up returns to shareholders, appreciate their cautious management of the company etc.