Belhaven Grp. Share Discussion Threads

[shirishg] 22/6/2005 14:55

Post removed by ADVFN

[ed 123] 22/6/2005 14:55

e, no probs.

Cash is not a popular asset class atm. Market is up on MPC minutes.

Current spell of hot weather should give a littel boost to the sales of the pubs/breweries.

[edmundshaw] 22/6/2005 11:09

I stand (sit) corrected. Apologies for the rather careless mistake.

I don't really count the big operators as their profile is different in many ways (though I suppose BHG is quite a bit different from BND and JBC). I'm not so keen on the city centre operators, either.

I should have a look at H&H... all that Jennings and Burtonwood cash is burning a hole in my pocket ;-)

[ed 123] 22/6/2005 10:43

bb, right,F&Y also. I prefer H&H to F&Y.

H&H have non-listed voting shares with family, and control is in their hands. They seem to be doing a good job running the business, so I'm happy to stick with them.

IMO Belhaven more vulnerable but the English smoking restrictions are likely to be less onerous than those which Belhaven will face. Eventually the smoking thing will be history and the cloud (smog?) will be lifted.

[bigbertie] 22/6/2005 09:36

And don't you count Fullers, and Youngs? However both of these and H & H are probably less likely bid targets because of founding family interests (don't the H & H family have extra votes?). But of course families do sell out sometimes. There are also some brewers on Ofex I think, but haven't checked.

[ed 123] 21/6/2005 23:13

edmundshaw, "... now the only listed independent ..." I'm holding Hardys and Hansons as well as Belhaven. I would have said they were both listed independents.

I sold my Burtonwood and Jennings to Wolves. They can have my other holdings, too, for the right price. Greene King may be waiting for the effects of the smoking ban to be quantified before they open their cheque book. Possibly too cautious; it could all be over before then.

[bigbertie] 21/6/2005 11:16

edmundshaw - you are quite right but I was being cautious because companies nearly always find something to spend capital on! There will be new outside smoking zones to install, perhaps a brewery extension, etc. But I agree that BHG is likely to become cash positive within 12 months. I'm definitely a fan of these - didn't mean to sound pessimistic.

I had my first glass of Best a few days ago. I don't normally drink nitro-keg but I confess to rather liking it.

[edmundshaw] 21/6/2005 10:27

bigb, the debt would fall, and reasonably fast. And then BHG would be chucking off cash, with acquisition-related costs and not-yet-performing assets no longer a drag on the published figures.

All still looking pretty rosy to me - apart from the smoking issue, the effects of which is still a big '?'.

Meanwhile, BHG is now the only scottish listed independent, so what price a takeover? Superb assets to be picked up, cf Burtonwood and Jennings in the pub sector alone.

[bigbertie] 20/6/2005 21:52

Pity about the smoking worry - otherwise the outlook would be excellent. I shall go out for more pub meals when the smoking ban kicks in, so that should help them!

By the way Salpara111, cash flow before financing (including acquisitions of pubs) has been significantly negative for at least the last 4 years. Net debt has increased 3-fold since March 01, and that's after a share placing in the year ended Mar 04 (otherwise it would have been 4-fold). Acquisition programmes are expensive! However if acquisitions reduce, the present level of debt looks quite comfortable, and could start to fall.

[domtheone] 20/6/2005 12:09

Steady as she goes at the moment then.

X Div next Wednesday so would think that £5 is possible by then....:-)

[salpara111] 07/6/2005 09:08

Given their very healthy free cash flow I am unclear as to why they would need to launch a rights issue.
I was away on results day but would have to say I am very pleased with the results and while I didnt expect the share price to rocket I would have expected it to have put on a bit.
I originally bought BHG and Greene King at the same time and then sold out of Greene King which in hindsight looks like the wrong decision.
I intend to hold for the moment as I believe that any potential offer for the company would have to be at least around the 600 level.
The p/e rating is pretty undemanding and they have been impressive in holding up their margins so the down side has to be pretty limited from here.

[bigbertie] 06/6/2005 22:01

paulf99 - yes great results, although debt didn't rise as much as I expected. I think they may slow down the pub acquisitions now as they are getting near their 300 target (which they hoped to reach by end next year) and it's getting hard to find / develop good pubs. So perhaps I was worrying unnecessarily about the rights issue. Anyhow you're right - I think I would take up my rights too - the last one didn't stop earnings per share powering ahead. Let's drink to another good year.

[domtheone] 06/6/2005 21:55

"I think the price will close unchanged at 485p."

Just remembered that, good call!!

[paulf99] 06/6/2005 20:23

Bigbertie you were quite right; a good set of results. They don't seem to mention a rights issue but the Belhaven management have a good track record and so I would probably subscribe to one if it came up, not least because I made a decent gain on the last rights issue. It's not a spectacular share this one but all I expect from it is good steady improvement.

[waldron] 05/6/2005 05:33

Belhaven to reveal 'comfort zone' fund to enable drinking outdoors




By John Phelps



Stuart Ross, pugnacious boss of Belhaven, is set to announce a £2 million fighting fund to help his publicans combat the effects of the complete ban on smoking inside Scottish pubs.
It is understood the cash has been set aside to develop new sheltered areas outside many of the group's 255-plus pubs after a complete survey of the estate, and that a string of planning applications are now in the pipeline.

More than 80% of all the outlets will be involved in the creation of new comfort zones, complete with outside heaters, and Belhaven is likely to provide the capital cost for many of its tenancies as well as its managed houses.

At the same time, directors are keeping their free trade customers abreast of their plans. Belhaven will be handing out practical advice to those aiming to adopt a similar strategy, along with useful promotional material such as self-standing ashtrays robust enough to withstand the effects of a Scottish winter.

Full details are expected when the company announces its yearly results tomorrow and most of the work should be completed in the first quarter of next year, in time for the start of the ban.

The need for urgent action is underlined by recent industry research that suggested that Scotland's pub trade could lose between 7.5% and 10% of its business once the new rules take effect.

Analysts say that Belhaven shares have been held back by these fears and that their recent advance to around 484p, valuing the business at £144m, is largely down to vague takeover gossip following a recent offer for fellow regional operator Jennings.

Directors are expected to underline their long-term commitment to Belhaven when they roll out the annual figures. Ross, the chief executive of the company, is set to confirm his medium term strategy of acquiring 30 to 40 new pubs a year to take the total estate to approaching 500 pubs by 2010.

He will stress that the acquisition policy is being carried out from a position of strength with annual profits likely to show an increase from £14.2m to around £17.3m, helped by further market gains for Belhaven Best and good volume increases for contracted products such as Tennent's and Stella Artois.

While net debt is likely to work out at around £62m (including £14m of trade loans), analysts say that interest charges are covered around seven times by earnings. Ironically, worries over the smoking ban could help the acquisition strategy as small operators decide to give up the struggle rather than invest in a new strategy, and it is likely that directors should be able to negotiate some good deals.

Followers say that recent acquisitions have taken place at around £620,000 per pub rather than the average price of £670,000 in 2004.

Most brokers are sitting on the fence with "hold" recommendations for Belhaven shares as they wait for the smoking ban to take effect, although David Marshall in the Glasgow office of Bell Lawrie believes they are worth buying.

"It is one of the last remaining independents in a consolidating sector and it is a sound business with excellent management," he said.

Meanwhile Michael Dunn, managing director of Dunn Interiors which specialises in refurbishments in the hos pit ality industry, warned that some pub owners could lose their planned retirement nest egg because of the smoking ban.

But he said that it presented pub owners with opportunities and he hoped that it would be positive for the industry overall.

05 June 2005

[domtheone] 04/6/2005 01:00

bigbertie - 3 Jun'05 - 21:15 - 180 of 180
but I bought a few bottles today to celebrate or commiserate as required.

Seems like a good way to hedge your bets :-)

[bigbertie] 03/6/2005 21:15

I think the results will show rises in sales and profits as new pubs kick in, but a rise in debt as well. My only worry is that to meet their 300 pub target they will make another share issue......I think the price will close unchanged at 485p. Actually I haven't a clue what will happen but I bought a few bottles today to celebrate or commiserate as required.

[domtheone] 03/6/2005 09:15

Results Due Monday. Anyone want to hazzard a guess at Mondays closing share price ;-)

[bigbertie] 12/5/2005 20:18

Tried a bottle of the Fruit Beer last night - not bad, the fruit taste is barely detectable but that's probably a good thing. In its draught form it won some prize. This is in the interest of investment research, but DYOR of course.

[domtheone] 12/5/2005 13:28

Wouldn't say they were the worst, by far. Not compared to some other smaller (AIM) stocks that i've watched over the last few months.

Like you said, bit of volatility can be helpful if you have faith in the company you trade in.

[ed 123] 11/5/2005 21:22

I don't worry too much about mm's moving prices around. In fact a bit of volatility can be helpful. If prices get too low I aim to buy more and, if too high, then I aim to sell. That's the theory but in practice I struggle a bit with the timing. Oh, to be blessed with 20/20 hindsight!

Is there a specific complaint about mm's in relation to Belhaven Group?

[domtheone] 11/5/2005 12:47

Well I wouldn't like to say that it will benefit/not benefit PI's.

My knowledge is limited with this. Just commenting on what I see and what I have seen over the last few months with regard to small caps.

Behavior of of many MM's is absolutely outrageous and most probably illegal in some cases.

[ed 123] 10/5/2005 21:29

Agree, SamG99. There may be narrower spreads with setsmm but I suspect there will be little available volume at the best quoted price. Likely result is that more trades will go through for smaller quantities on average. The winners will be the London Stock Exchange and the brokers.

[samg99] 10/5/2005 16:49

domtheone - well, in 2 months (11th July to be precise) BHG, along with another 199 smallcap stocks, will be put on SETSMM. Can't see that being of benefit to PIs, whether in terms of tradeability, transparency, volatility or indeed anything else!

[domtheone] 10/5/2005 15:52

Another P*ss take fall on no volume......

One day maybe all stocks will be traded on the SETS system instead of this crooked sh*te that we have now..