Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 21/2/2013 18:56

Looks like Caledonia are clearing their holding fast. Should stand a fair chance of a re-rating once the rest are gone in my opinion. This overhang has impacted the shares for some time.

[spooky] 21/2/2013 15:16

And very cheap :-o)

[daneswooddynamo] 21/2/2013 14:13

hi Paul.

i own a largish chunk of empresaria where they own 20 plus percent. Trouble is that one is very small and illiquid!

[paulypilot] 21/2/2013 13:59

Would there not be an issue in that if AIM shares are allowed in ISAs, then they might lose their exemption from Inheritance Tax (IHT)? The IHT exemption is if you hold AIM shares for more than 2 years, and then die, which is a massive tax break for taxable estates. It's because AIM is not treated as a "recognised Exchange" apparently. I'm not an expert on tax, just repeating what I've read.

Anyone aware of any other shares where Caledonia are suppressing the price by constant selling? I might do an RNS search, might flag up some other opportunities. I'm a big fan of buying when there's an overhang, as you can get as much stock as you want, and at an artificially depressed price.

Insolvencies should shoot up once the economy is recovering, because that's when Banks can afford to take the write-offs.

Regards, Paul.

[cyberbub] 21/2/2013 08:39

I thought that any possible allowance of AIM shares into ISAs was only likely to take effect in April 2014?

[daneswooddynamo] 21/2/2013 08:39

caledonia are definitely selling completely. They are selling all their large legacy holdings in smaller companies to reinvest in larger more liquid companies which is presenting a potentially lucrative opportunity here as others have highlighted

[rotors] 21/2/2013 08:31

I also made a small purchase yesterday - it is becoming quite a big club...
Not sure if Caledonia are selling out completely or just reducing; have seen no statement.

I speculate also that if Osborne decides on Budget Day (March 20) to allow AIM stocks into ISAs then BEG will benefit: sound fundamentals, covered dividend, high yield, low PER - and the prospect of increased opportunity once recovery takes place and the plug is pulled on so many zombie companies.

[paulypilot] 20/2/2013 23:54

I think the issue is that insolvencies are artifically way lower than they should be right now, due to Govt policy & Banks not wanting to recognise bad loans. So once things become even vaguely normal, then BEG should see a sustained uplift in activity rates. Also, a PER of 7 actually is very hard to find these days. BEG has not re-rated, due to overhang from Caledonian, so overdue a catch-up once that cleared.

PP.

[cyberbub] 20/2/2013 23:18

Pauly, noticed you are holding here - with half-year adjusted EPS at 2.5p, the shares are on a P/E of 7, which is OK but not spectacularly cheap?

[paulypilot] 20/2/2013 17:26

Great minds think alike, I also added some more BEG today, for the same reasons as you guys - namely that the overhang is holding down the price, but once cleared should allow the shares to rise. As we're seeing with other shares, once the price starts moving up, it can rise quite rapidly.

Cheers, PP.

[c1d] 20/2/2013 16:49

I added to my holding today too. I missed out on Vianet through not having available cash in the right place at the right time. I'm hoping that Begbies' share price will react similarly when we get an RNS that Caledonia have exited their stake. Shouldn't have to wait long now.

[norbert colon] 20/2/2013 16:27

Just added another 5k @ 34.85. This is a similar situation to Vianet a few weeks back where a large holder was selling out and once cleared the price moved strongly north. Good luck to all.

[daneswooddynamo] 19/2/2013 19:47

This is probably hours or days away from leaving the 35p level behind

[rotors] 19/2/2013 18:28

What I find interesting is that the share price barely moved with these two mega (for BEG) trades passing through. With a spread of 34.50 to 35.50 I put in a limit buy order at 35p assuming the market makers would be wanting to offload some stock but not a tickle.

[xdavid] 19/2/2013 17:06

Interesting... 4.5M shares traded today. Caledonia's holding was down to 5.15M on Friday. mmm...

[paulypilot] 08/2/2013 13:35

Agreed, Caledonia are holding back the share price with their constant selling. But as we saw with Vianet, a big overhang can suddenly clear, and then trigger a very quick 20% rise. So one can see an overhang as both good & bad - good because it allows you to buy easily in any size you want, and bad because it's a short term break on the share price.

That said, BEG's trading has been pretty lacklustre in the last couple of years, but there should be a good pick-up in work once the economy is recovering more strongly. As we know, more companies go bust in a recovery than in a recession, especially where insolvencies have been so massively suppressed by Govt policy as this time - which has delayed the recovery, since private sector investment often hinges on a holder of a dilapidated asset going bust first, before that asset (e.g. a shop, hotel, car dealer, or whatever) is handed over to someone who can afford to revamp it, thereby creating jobs.

At last meeting Ric Traynor also indicated that small bolt on acquisitions are being planned, and are now at reasonable asking prices again. So we should get growth in that way, even if underlying insolvency market is static.

This should be a nice long term situation in my opinion. Hoping to at least double my money here from the current price, plus 6% divis along the way, if it all pans out as hoped.

Cheers, Paul.

[xdavid] 08/2/2013 13:07

Presumably that's Caledonia trying to offload some more!

[acass] 29/1/2013 09:32

i put aim stocks in a sipp where they are permitted

[topvest] 25/1/2013 16:35

Caledonia has sold a few. Once that holding is cleared we can expect much better progress in the share price.

[rotors] 25/1/2013 12:58

Ah thanks mrwhits1, of course.

[mrwhits1] 25/1/2013 11:35

aim listed.....

[rotors] 25/1/2013 11:25

I think in the past that companies on the edge have fallen into receivership once recovery has started. Not saying that this is the position today but there does seem to be more optimism in the market.

I have tried to put this stock in my ISA but it is apparently not permitted.

Anybody here know why this is?

[c1d] 25/1/2013 11:16

Hi daneswooddynamo,
I am 100% in agreement with you!

[daneswooddynamo] 25/1/2013 10:56

a number of interesting developments which bode reasonably well for beg. Bank shares have risen sharply and large scale zombie companies are now being pushed over the edge (hmv, jessops, comet etc.)as banks think balance sheets are able to withstand the impact. Getting rid of excess unprofitable capacity at the end of the day is the only way for economies to recover. Small and mid cap insolvencies will increase just as larger ones have. No doubt the caledonia overhang is still a factor but just gives people to top up at stable price and enjoy a 6% yield until its cleared and then the shares could rise strongly.

[c1d] 22/1/2013 10:20

My reading of the RNS is similar to Ed 123's.

It sounds to me that they have given a number of employees (most of whom I would expect to be existing staff) a different label for marketing purposes. As and when fresh assignments are won they will pull in other existing staff from across the business to help with the work.

I took it as Begbies finding an excuse to remind their network of contacts of the range of services they provide.