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Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads
Showing 1776 to 1797 of 1800 messages
|US tax receipts seem to indicate the US has gone into recession. It would explain the horrible retail updates over there. The Trump surge has been based on tax cuts and increased spending when it looks increasingly like he will have to do the opposite.
|UK trading updates all seem good today - DEB, MKS, TSCO ABF, ASC. The footfall scares in the UK seem ill-founded, and yet there have been lots of poor US retail (and restaurant) updates and some abysmal ones, amd US internet penetration is only half of the UK's so what is eating into them?
There are clearly problems in the USA (pharma and tech, too) and yet the stockmarket marches up to new highs. There are actually some problems in the UK. We knoe fashion sales are weak. Hays UK recruitment revenues fell 9%. THat's a significant fall and in line with weakening employment trends. So how have UK retailers done so well? Well, omline has been strong and international online sales have been very strong thanks to the weak £. Maybe that has undermined some US and EU retailers. I'm still trying to work it out but UK retailers have mostly done well.
I'll be watching to see if the poor US updates mean its economy is slowing and watching in the UK to see if all the small retail units that emptied in the run-up to Christmas get filled up again. There have still been a large number of redunsancy announcements in recent months in the UK and the good retail numbers have been driven by an unsustainably sharp expansion of consumer credit so I remain very cautious about 2017.|
|This is all about interest rates - if they unexpectedly increase more than expected, then the business will fly in!|
|So Begbies is down 3.19% today and I'm thinking of buying a small position. Any reason why I shouldn't?|
|UK businesses will rein back investment on such forecasts:
It left its 2016 UK growth forecast unchanged at 2%, but said it now expected the economy to expand by 1.2% this year and 1.3% in 2018, comparedwith the 2.1% predicted for both years before the referendum.|
|There's been several UK retail updates now and they've mosrly been decent or good. The US, however, has produced numerous poor updates from retail and restaurant operators, suggesting the US consumer is struggling a bit. In both cases consumer debt has been rising quickly, particularly on credit cards, at a rate that seems unsustainable.
|Some good UK retail news:
Another surveyed overview - not so bad?:
Clearly a very mixed bag this year, making the overall trend very difficult to determine.|
|If you don't spend in the shops, on cars etc ("off-line" consumer goods) or on holidays, what are you doing instead?
1. Online retail. OK for general economy, transport, e-commerce
2. Home improvements, upsizing house, buying a yacht: shift in economy, should be positive for Begbies in some sectors.
3. Starting to pay down that debt as interest rates rise. I'll leave you guys to work out the consequences of that one out for yourselves; but Begbies could get busy...
This is personal thoughts; what am I missing?|
|US retail shares are getting clobbered - and yet the main indices are up a touch. How can the rest of the economy be doing okay if shop sales have lurched unexpectedly downwards?
Edit - 1 hour later and the Dow has fallen 130 pts so maybe it is sinking in.|
|The US has issued some horrible retail updates today amd announcing job losses:
Walgreens earnings were in line on slightly reduced turnover that missed forcasts. Costco (budget retailer) sales were considered ok at 5.0.%, but they grew at 11.5% between 2010 and 2014 and have been slowing.|
|If retail sales are weak, where did all this money go - and what happens when debt stops growing at this unsustainable level?
Bad company or slowing economy?
|Debenhams has dipped down, but I see Tesco and Sainsburys have held onto gains from the latter part of 2016. All very confusing...|
|The General Retailers index is only down 0.3% so far. It was down 1.9% yesterday but that's still not a huge reaction. Perhaps the stockmarket just sees it as being only a NEXT problem or a fashiom retailers problem. I suspect credit is tightening/getting more expensive due to rising default rates but the markets are clearly not as pessimistic as me (yet).
|Next sales were towards the bottom of its guidance range, with Q4 sales down marginally against a weak Q4 last year. New guidance indicates 2017 will be down on 2016. Some retail shares will likely fall again today on expectations of an even tougher year to come.
Cambrian Motor report margin pressure on new car sales.
Budget retailer B&M looks to have traded well.
Early days but it looks like consumers were cautious this Christmas.|
|Lots of buying around this morning and the bid is back over 50p. This minor Telegraph tip is probably why, although there have been lots of reports of retailers doing badly over the holiday:
|Some retailers will be reporting awful figure for the holiday period. Online has done well - but can it compensate for this?
Shopping centres saw a drastic drop in the number of shoppers on the first day of 2017 compared to January 1 last year.
Footfall was down by 49.5 per cent while high streets across the UK also saw an average of 12.7 per cent fewer customers.
Ok, it was a short day but bricks and mortar retailers were hoping for a strong Christmas and New Year to rescue a weak run up. It does not look to have happened. It looks to have worsened if anything.|
|Bonio - but there are knock on effects. Some retailers have had an awful year. This article from just before Christmas says 15 shops a day were closing nationally and openings were the lowest for 5 years.
Apart from knock-on effects amongst their suppliers, empty shops will be hitting council revenues. Councils seem to be making lots of redundancies in the last couple of months as shop rates and parking revenues have been hit.
This could be sign of a wider slowdown. I actuslly think the UK will go into recession in 2017. The Claimant Count has been rising since February and vacancies look to be starting to turn down. Most jobs created recently have been part-time and many big redundancy programs announced earlier in 2016 have not finished yet.
Claimant count has steadily risen by 72.8k (9.9%) to 809k since February (Figure 14):
Rising UK mortgage rates (started a few weeks back) and other government changes in property subisidies and taxes are a new drag on the property market where prices in many areas already peaked in July or August and sales volumes are down 20-40%.
Check your housing price trend here:
Land Registry shows the national average price fell in September and October:
Petrol prices continue to rise and imported goods price rises haven't really started sinking in yet, thanks to currency hedges. Consumers outspent their income by nearly 2% of GDP in 2016. How long can that continue?
I suspect 2017 could be the year the cycle turns after hints of it in 2016.|
|The Telegraph includes BEG amongst its correspondents' share tips. Whether that's good or bad is an open question, but with the main market at a new high I will be holding tight onto my holding. What goes up can come down with an almighty crash.
As for BEG being too small - big failures drag down smaller suppliers and contractors, well inside their ambit.|
|If they fail - BEG won't be getting the work.
|It's been a bad Christmas in the bricks and mortar shops by the looks of it. Can strong online sales make up for it?
New figures from Opus Restructuring have found that 43.6 per cent of fashion retailers in the UK are deemed financially vulnerable, up from 37.1 per cent in 2015.
Nearly 4000 fashion retailers across the country rate less than 25 out of 100 on Company Watch's corporate health scale, which Opus used for its research.
This places close to half of all UK fashion retailers in the “warning area” in which retailers are expected to face formal insolvency or undergo major financial maintenance in the coming few years.|
|Maybe not just small retailers. Boxing day was awful for shopping centres on one of their biggest days of the year. Online sales growth eased to more modest levels from a very strong start at the beginning of December
Shopping centres had a particularly disappointing Boxing Day, suffering a 19.9% year-on-year drop in footfall – a measure of shopper numbers. High streets saw footfall decline 2.2% compared with 2015, and for out of town retail parks footfall was down 4.2%, despite earlier optimism, according to retail analysts Springboard.|