BCB Holdings Share Discussion Threads

[christianf12] 06/7/2011 10:37

Simon Cawkwell

He's been buying BCB lately and says the same, BCB trading at 25% of book value.

He has a diary on www.t1ps.com and comments every Mon, Wed & Fri

[horace678] 06/7/2011 10:35

who is EK?

[christianf12] 06/7/2011 10:32

Looks to me like BCB are completely off radar.

There is only EK making people aware of it's cheapness.

It only takes a few buys/sells to move the share price so once people realise the potential gains to be made here, we will see some sharp movements upwards as mm's won't be able to deal with any real sustained buying pressure.

[horace678] 06/7/2011 10:22

On the basis of OneSource, which also made a loss and was sold off at just over twice the book value, the share price of BCB would be 8x the present value = £5.00. Ashcroft also owned a similar % holding in OneSource (74%'ish).

[christianf12] 06/7/2011 09:51

horace, thanks.

Looks like the fill or kill orders work.

[horace678] 06/7/2011 09:50

Given that Ashcroft owns 74% of the company, I can't see him letting go of value here in the long run. However, he doesn't fill the market with surplus news about the company or let analysts anywhere near it. He also likes to create an aura of "dodginess" (like Boris Johnson likes to create an aura of dishevellment) while at the same time building up a solid bread-and-butter business which he will eventually sell off. See the case of OneSource, the share price of which went up over 6x when he sold off in 2007.

[christianf12] 06/7/2011 09:32

horace, thanks.

He might soon be giggling. Why is there 2 market makers offering 2,500 shares each at 63p when the real quote is a max of 2 shares?

Fair value right now must be at least double this share price leaving them still at a 50% discount to TNAV?

[horace678] 06/7/2011 09:27

The share price is 25% of book value, but this is the way Ashcroft likes it - he likes to lie low for long periods of time before letting the share price shoot up suddenly, thereby having the last laugh.

[christianf12] 06/7/2011 09:19

Max you can buy online currently at 62p is 2 shares!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes 2 shares.

Or £1.24 worth!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fill or kill them guys.

[christianf12] 06/7/2011 09:15

Can't even buy 1,000 shares now. Looks like you will have to try and fill or kill them.

Significant Shareholders (as at 30 July 2009) -
Lord Ashcroft, KCMG -77,524,217 (74.7%)*
Capita IRG Trustees (Nominees) Limited - 16,626,724 (16.6%)*

10% to go around everyone else.

[christianf12] 06/7/2011 08:55

Max shares you can buy is 3750 currently. Think we could see a substantial move on sustained buying.

[christianf12] 06/7/2011 08:50

Looks to me like market makers are trying to get stock in here as one has moved his price up on the bid already today, even though there has been no buys or sells.

The fall from 80p looks overdone and I expect a swift return there.

To trade at 25% of it's TNAV is a disgrace and something needs to be done.

[horace678] 28/6/2011 10:43

Belize is a little place, with a population of only 200,000 - no wonder Ashcroft is a big fish. Even though he has indicated some sense of continuity by appointing his son, Andrew, to the board of BCB, I think he'll eventually quit the scene completely. My long-term expectation for BCB is its being sold to an American bank, presumably at a multiple of its current valuation.

[skanjete2] 28/6/2011 10:26

That's the least you can say of this. We haven't seen the last of this story, that's for sure. But at least for the moment, BCB's loan and debentures to BTL seem to be a bit more solid than a few days ago...

I don't understand what Barrow is actually trying to acomplish in Belize. A few weeks ago he nationalised the electricity company (BEL) as well, on simiral questionable terms. Will there be any foreign investor left willing to invest in the country?

[horace678] 28/6/2011 09:21

I seem to remember that the BTL issue, and others, in Belize is highly complex and difficult to follow...

[skanjete2] 27/6/2011 21:16

A few days ago, Lord Ashcroft won his case in the Court of Appeal in Belize concerning the BTL nationalisation. So he re-acquired BTL a few days ago.

This means a lot for the value of the "other assets" in their balance sheet, which contain some important loans to BTL, but were declared null by the GOB when they nationalised BTL.

So after somewhat disappointing results, this is quite a positive way to end the day.

[horace678] 27/6/2011 16:18

Yes, shareholders equity of $421.3m (£263m) against a market cap of only £56m.

[christianf12] 27/6/2011 16:08

Simon Cawkwell tipped these again in his diary today. He says TNAV £263 million.

[horace678] 27/6/2011 14:09

Yes, Ashcroft's loans to the T&C islands (including a load of his personal money) don't seem to have done too well. Still, I'm holding onto this one for good. The share price is now only 25% of the book value.

[skanjete2] 27/6/2011 13:42

Well, it will be interesting to read the annual report. Things that interest me particularly are :
- what exactly are the $117,2m other assets. A big part are the sums under discussion with the GOB, but that doesn't explain the complete amount
- how much non performing loans do they have on the loan book and how are they trending?
- the detail of their impairments

The thing that worried me the most is the sudden fall of interest income in Q4, probably due to interest reversals.

So their financial business looks a bit shaky, but Numar on the other hand did splendidly : earnings of (part BCB) 23m or 14p/share and end of year equity of 125,8m or 76,24p/share, with a ROE of 21%!
So the market puts in effect a negative value on the banking assets...

[horace678] 27/6/2011 09:25

Results not very good unfortunately. Still, the company is very cheap.

[skanjete2] 16/6/2011 09:56

That's old news. Moreover, there have been several ruling (in London and Belize) in BCB's favor.
It's not because Said Musa or the Belize government makes mistakes, that a private party as BCB has to pay the costs on the basis of populist arguments.