Bayfield Share Discussion Threads

[spacecake] 28/1/2013 15:08

I see wti not brent is being used to price the value in the merger document, even though bayfield recently moved to brent pricing.

[ultrapunch] 28/1/2013 13:10

I haven't bought any BEH this morning, but then again I haven't sold any either!! No available funds, unfortunately. Been buying BEM and LRL in the past few days.

Still reckon it's cheap under 20p. A £190m Mkt Cap after the placing doesn't seem excessive for a fully funded (£45m cash after placing) company that is producing 4000bopd from 2P of 31MMbbls and targeting a lot more oil and production using that £45m of cash.

That 4000bopd is all oil from what I can gather and at BRENT - 9.5% the profit margin is likely to be up to US$50 per bbl.

[akaaur] 28/1/2013 12:32

guys great tip check out OXP they are now manufacturing a product heading for a market worth $27billion, mulitbagger

[ntbb] 28/1/2013 12:29

thanks triples, guys its worth looking at exi

[hamlette] 28/1/2013 12:06

ultrapunch - agree about the comparison with RRL.

Bought in earlier today and all eyes will be on the T&T Energy conference in Port of Spain. This is the largest Caribbean Energy conference of the year and Trinity are one of the platinum sponsors of the event, which starts today:


Monty Pemberton is there for Trinity and will be giving a Trinity 2013 Exploration and Production Update tomorrow.

[ultrapunch] 28/1/2013 09:54

The share price is slowly recovering. Good value, IMO, under 20p.

Worth buying at todays price.

Cheap compared to RRL on basis of production.

[ntbb] 28/1/2013 09:48

what is the code to buy this share

[spacecake] 28/1/2013 09:28

Personally, to date this has been my biggest disappointment, headache and balls up and only time (a long time I guess) will tell if the situation will improve.

[triples] 28/1/2013 09:20

Given how dreadful people thought this might be, today's prices are a bit of a blessing. Add to that the fact that Bayfield didn't go bust and you can now safely exit if you wish, then this is good news.

[stef77] 28/1/2013 09:16

Not as bad as I thought the dive will be.I might rake in if they go in the 10-12p range, that's the only obvious bargain area for me.

[spacecake] 28/1/2013 08:48

So the placing of 120p after the 1 for 10 share consolidation is 12p now ...

[triples] 28/1/2013 08:24

I think that this is T&T's first UK listed company will bring investors from T&T here. Venture did well with Dingwall and so might Trinity.

[luminoso] 28/1/2013 08:22

Thanks. Perhaps they have more details than the rest of us !

[triples] 28/1/2013 08:20

Yep, they were. Someone is keen to have them.

[luminoso] 28/1/2013 08:17

Not sure they were all buys at 14p, were they ?

[spacecake] 28/1/2013 08:11

ouch, ouch, ouch !!!!

[oilbuy] 28/1/2013 07:36

Excellent !

[triples] 27/1/2013 20:23

Good posts Ultrapunch. BW.

[ultrapunch] 27/1/2013 17:21

By my calculations the merged Trinity/BEH could make in excess of £44m (US$70m) pre tax profit in 2013.

After consolidation on the 14th February there will be 95.5m shares in issue. If the Mkt Cap then is £200m that would mean a circa 210p share price (or 21p pre consolidation).

Strip out the circa £55m cash (US$90m placing) and that leaves an enterprise value (EV) of just £145m. Not a lot of money for a company likely to make more than £44m pre tax profit in 2013. That would value the 2P oil in the ground (31MMbbls) at US$7.5 per bbl in the ground. Seems reasonable.

[ultrapunch] 27/1/2013 14:56

jac 1104, steff asked what price Trinity were getting for their oil, not BEH.

steff. I believe Trinity are getting the same as BEH. WTI - 9.5%. Why? Well BEH went to WTI - 9.5% when their production reached a certain level. Since Trinity produce more oil than BEH they must also be on that tarrif.

[ultrapunch] 27/1/2013 14:51

Dr Rosso. It's 264m Trinity shares being merged in pre consolidation. 216m = 45%. 264m = 55%

480m shares in total. 48m after consolidation.

95.5m shares in issue after placing and consolidation.

See my posts from yesterday. Pre tax profit should be over US$70m this year after deducting cost of sales and admin expenses.

I think fair value for the merged company is 5 x US$70m = US$350m.

That's around 22 - 23p per share. I'm not saying that will happen tomorrow, but GOO re-listed on thursday and closed at circa 1.50p, twice the 0.75p placing price.

I can't help thinking that the placing price was so low so as to give institutions who took part in the original BEH flotation to "average" down.

[dr rosso] 27/1/2013 14:23

216m BEH shares Old mcap £44m 21p
256 Old Trinity shares being merged in.

472m shares New mcap around £100m Sp sticks at 21p

And then the big BUT. Another 475 placing shares being issued at 12p.

Suddenly its 947m shares in issue for New Trinity, which means the mcap is going to have to see a doubling from £100m to £200m for the existing shareholders to break even. Might see that £200m within a year, but on relist the most we are going to see is £150m. That gives an share price of 16p.
Similar value to Eland O&G due to similar initial reserves of 31mmb and 4k bopd.

The gainers are those in on the placing at 12p. I wonder who they might be?