Bayfield Share Discussion Threads

[contrarian2investor] 28/9/2012 18:45

Hi all, I got stop-lossed out my remaining holdings today at 25p. I will continue to monitor these and intend to repurchase them if they become too unloved. Thanks again and good luck.

[triples] 28/9/2012 18:37

It was yesterday. If you look at lse^co^uk trade history for BEH, you can see the date.

[mojomonkey] 28/9/2012 17:38

What do you make of the 430,000 trade that looks like a buy? Is it from yesterday or is it tied up with the 150,000 buy this evening on the trades page? I haven't been watching today really so dont know when the 430k one turned up, any ideas Ultra? Or anyone?

[ultrapunch] 28/9/2012 16:24

Well done the_beagle!!!! You played it brilliantly mate. I'll have to give you 10 out of 10 for that. As oilbuy can confirm I was intending to de-risk yesterday, right up until near the close, but decided to hang onto them all at the last minute. Big mistake!! Broke one of my new golden rules there.

Here's what I just posted on the lse bb.

Too true stocktrade. Luckily I sold this morning (see my earlier post) and carried on selling this afternoon, but stopped when the bid price dropped below 25p.. I have just bought some back after the panic sell off just now, but I bought too early at just over 23p because if I had waited the share price went even lower. Now seems to be recovering.

They need to find US$50m (around £32m) for the 4 Gorilla111 slots in 2013. However they have got a bit of time to sort something out since they wont have to start the 1st well until 2013 though they have to finish all 4 by the end of 2013 I believe, unless they get an extension. They will make a profit in H2 bearing in mind they will now get BRENT - 9.5% rather than WTI - 17.5%. How much profit they will make depends on if they can achieve their 1950bopd NET target from Trintes for the end of 2012.

I reckon their 19MMbbls 2P (Trintes) is now worth more than the circa £100m I calculated before since they can sell the oil for a much higher price (see above). That 19MMbbls could now be worth circa £125m to a bidder if nothing is added for the prospective potential of Galeota and S. Africa. That's around 60p per share. However if you subtracted the £32m contractual commitment for the Gorilla111 rig that comes down to £125m - £32m = £93m or circa 45 per share. And that's completely ignoring the exploration potential.

BEH are not desperate yet and their is a lot of potential upside for the share price if they can raise around £30m by the end of 2012, IMO.

PS socktrade1 posts as stocktrade on lse.

PPS. Have a look at LOGP, HER and HZM. All with tight BB's and potentially good newsflow in Q4. I particularly like LOGP.

[socktrade1] 28/9/2012 15:41

dont we all wish we took more profit,Tpet( tangiers petroleum) fantastic stock to be in the moment, alot of research and info to digest but its certainly one to look at, looking for 100% there in the next month or two

[petersmith6] 28/9/2012 15:16

back to 16p...wish i had took more proffit

[the_beagle] 28/9/2012 15:10

ultra...Pleased to say I did what you wished you had done and chickened out of three quarters yesterday and the first sale of the day this morning, surprisingly through TDW. It's getting near a repurchase price now and I'm watching closely. Thanks for the original tip. GLA. TB.

[triples] 28/9/2012 15:02

post 983, I said, "So it's still a hold. The bargain prices of 15p to 16p of a few weeks ago are history now, imho."

I may yet be proved wrong!

[ultrapunch] 28/9/2012 14:18

stef77, it's because they have outstanding commitments for the Gorilla 111 rig. They have an outstanding contract for 5 further drills on Galeota with the Gorilla rig. Their principal creditor is the owner of the Gorilla 111 rig!! They have managed to offload a slot to a third party, but at what cost to themslves? Anyway with 4 drills remaining at US$12.5m per well that adds up to US$50m!! With only US$19m of cash remaining at 30th June and spending money like water on the Trintes field they will soon run out of cash even if they make a profit in H2 of 2012. They are in need of a cash injection. They had to pull a placing in June because of lack of institutional interest.

[flyingbull] 28/9/2012 14:06

Please find below the link for entering the October 2012 Monthly Oil Stock Competition. Deadline for entry is this Sunday at midnight.



Good luck!!!

fb

[stef77] 28/9/2012 13:53

Does anyone know who this principal creditor is? I don't understand what they're on about. In the going concern statement.

[ultrapunch] 28/9/2012 13:42

I see, from the 8.5 form issued today, they are still open to offers. I wonder if they have received an offer yet?

[ultrapunch] 28/9/2012 13:23

Spacecake, there has been no improvement in production since the July RNS. They are now forecasting 1950bopd by the year end. However their record on forecasting has been poor so far.

I was expecting circa 3000bopd by the end of the year. At circa 2000bopd they will be far short of that. However the change from WTI-17.5% to Brent-9.5% will partially compensate for the lower production. I expected the 1st half figures to be bad since we already had Bayfield production figures for the 1st 6 months courtesy of a link to a Trinidad government web site. I expected the revenue and cost of sales figures to be similar though cost of sales was higher than I expected.

What worries me is the going concern query even after offloading one of the Gorilla 111 slots. They obviously still have big contractual amounts outstanding yet only US$19m of cash at 30/6/12 to cover those commitments. They need to raise cash soon or be taken over.

Well they definitely broke out of my pennant formation. Only down instead of up!!

Luckily I bought the majority of my shares in the 15-17p range so was able to offload some today for a 60% profit, but with the benefit of hindsight I should have de-risked and sold some yesterday. In fact I should have taken profits when the share price closed back inside the Bollinger Bands. The share price then was 30p.

Whoever said BEH were getting the good news out monday before issuing the bad news on friday was spot on!!

[triples] 28/9/2012 12:45

If Bayfield management expect to exit y/e at 1950bopd (net) at the new sales price, then that is a lot of cash flow. Outgoings are under control, so H2 could look pretty good and H1/13 even better.

So it's still a hold. The bargain prices of 15p to 16p of a few weeks ago are history now, imho.

edit: Today's results weren't quite what I was hoping for, but the projected production figures look competent.

[retsius] 28/9/2012 09:22

mdw1

What does offer period mean?

Nothing really exciting in the results that we didn`t know,but as someone wisely posted a few days ago,they are producing oil in a safe part of the world and the new contract pricing is first class. Brent crude pricing is very strong.

I am inclined to see how it pans out--I like the fact that board members own millions of shares--nothing like that to stimulate their brains.

Price seems to have stabilised after a rocky start. In summary,quite a good report.

[spacecake] 28/9/2012 08:37

"Any thing can happen in the next few hours"... as often heard on Thunderbirds !

[mdw1] 28/9/2012 08:25

Agreed Spacecake, and lets not forget they're still in an offer period.

[triples] 28/9/2012 08:24

The shareprice is holding up better than I thought it would.

[spacecake] 28/9/2012 08:21

Ultrapunch,

The interims were not that bad, steady progress on the production, no upward surprises. Nothings changed from what I knew yesterday except the share price.

On daily prices, with a change of trend I like to see the price confirmed the day after.... I'm not going to get pushed out by flapping about !

[liquidkid] 28/9/2012 08:21

They are normaly written by the temp at the accountants. probably some time ago. That's why it looks as if it just added in - i.e. the info on the contract earlier in the week.

[pj 1] 28/9/2012 08:10

Awfully written statement as well. Gives the impression the BOD do not give a Damn about Shareholders. imo

[ultrapunch] 28/9/2012 08:08

they were awful

[0rient] 28/9/2012 07:57

thought the same triples..

[triples] 28/9/2012 07:55

Half year results out.... not great production numbers. Expect a drop :(

[ultrapunch] 27/9/2012 20:26

"Spacecake 27 Sep'12 - 19:38 - 967 of 971


Pennants, triangle and flags can and do break in either direction, should know by the close on Tuesday the confirmed direction."

Why by the close on tuesday, Spacecake? What's so special about tuesday? The results are tomorrow. We should know whether the share price breaks up, or down, tomorrow and well before the close!!