Bayfield Share Discussion Threads

[mojomonkey] 27/9/2012 20:11

Thanks again, I understand now, I think! Looking forward to tomorrow morning, I dont expect any massive news.

Just a continuation of the plan and implementation of a ramp up in bopd plus possibly a forecast that if we are not in profit already we will be by the end of the year. GLA all and see you all bright and early in the morning!

ETA We could also see a large drop if the news is not as good as some hope because of all the people sitting on big paper profits at the moment, banking those profits. That would only cause me to buy more if it happens TBH.

[spacecake] 27/9/2012 20:04

Unless of course something spooks the crowd !!!

[ultrapunch] 27/9/2012 19:57

Candlestick version

[ultrapunch] 27/9/2012 19:54

Mojomonkey, I've down loaded an earlier version of Java so can access the advfn charts again

Very true Spacecake, but they are more likely to break up after a significant rise in the share price such as we had with BEH a few weeks ago.

[spacecake] 27/9/2012 19:38

Pennants, triangle and flags can and do break in either direction, should know by the close on Tuesday the confirmed direction.

[mojomonkey] 27/9/2012 18:30

Thanks Ultra for the link, which I will digest later and your very informative explanation. GLA

[oilbuy] 27/9/2012 16:05

Ultrapunch thank you for sharing that with us , your very kind

[ultrapunch] 27/9/2012 15:53

This link might help you visualise the pennant formation in the recent BEH chart, Mojomonkey.



"Flags and pennants can be categorized as continuation patterns. They usually represent only brief pauses in a dynamic market. They are typically seen right after a big, quick move. The market then usually takes off again in the same direction. Research has shown that these patterns are some of the most reliable continuation patterns.

Bullish flags are characterized by lower tops and lower bottoms, with the pattern slanting against the trend. But unlike wedges, their trendlines run parallel.

Bearish flags are comprised of higher tops and higher bottoms. "Bear" flags also have a tendency to slope against the trend. Their trendlines run parallel as well.

Pennants look very much like symmetrical triangles. But pennants are typically smaller in size (volatility) and duration.

(Volume generally contracts during the pause with an increase on the breakout.)"

There are some actual stock and commodity chart examples contained in that link, Mojomonkey, but unfortunately they are all of flag formations.

You will probably be able to see it if I can post a couple of charts this evening. The flag pole is the height of the recent spike up from circa 15-17p to the high of over 30p. The pennant is the small symmetrical triangle that has formed over the last couple of weeks or so at the top of the flag pole. You'll probably be able to see it better using the candlestick chart.

What does it all mean? Well you have had the spike up (flag pole) on very large volume. Now the share price is going sideways in a symmetrical triangle pattern. The lows are getting higher and the highs are getting lower thus forming the symmetrical triangle pattern. The share price is effectively going sideways, on low volume, towards the apex of the symmetrical triangle. Basically the BEH share price is meandering gently sideways on low volume as investors await the interim results. If investors like them and the update it will contain, the share price will rise, probably to 40p+. If not the share price will drop!!

It's a reliable pattern. Probably if you examined 100 charts after such patterns have formed 70 of those charts will show rises and 30 will show falls after the pattern has formed. Nothing is guaranteed when it comes to charts!!

EDIT. I was going to de-risk by selling a chunk of my BEH today, but instead have decided not to. I'll take my chances because of the chart.

[ultrapunch] 27/9/2012 15:45

Duplicated post. advfn kept crashing on me.

[ultrapunch] 27/9/2012 15:20

I'll have a go at posting a chart this evening Mojomonkey, but my computer is rather old and I've been having trouble lately with accessing advfn interactive charts. I've never been able to access them in the day because I'm not a premium rate advfn customer. Consequently I get timed out.

The pennant formation has only been forming for the last 2 to 3 weeks if that's any help. You might be able to see it better using the candlestick chart. A flag/pennant pattern should last for around 3 weeks. Which is pretty good timing for the interim results tomorrow!!

[mojomonkey] 27/9/2012 14:28

Any chance of you posting a chart of your own Ultra to show those details, I'm struggling to see what you mean on the Long Term chart above. GLA

[ultrapunch] 27/9/2012 13:05

As can be seen in the long term chart in the header we have a flag/pennant chart pattern forming. This formation is often bullish and the most likely outcome is a rise in the share price such that the rise roughly equals the height of the flag pole (in this instance around 12p)

[ultrapunch] 27/9/2012 12:59

Spot on Spacecake. If they have important corporate news to announce, such as a farm-in or sale of assets, they must announce it via an RNS asap after the corporate action has been finalised. They must NOT wait until the interim results to announce such important corporate action.

EDIT. What we will probably get, apart from the latest production figures, is the state of play at the moment on the corporate action front.

[petersmith6] 27/9/2012 12:53

i will setle for side ways with an upward trend...

[spacecake] 27/9/2012 12:39

The company have to announce to investors in a timely fashion any corporate action, farm in, sale of assets which may effect the share price. I'm not expecting any fireworks tomorrow. If the management has a good hold and understanding of the current financial situation that will do me.
An increase in the production would be nice, forecasts of more future production would be very nice.

[luminoso] 27/9/2012 11:42

If there is dramatic corporate news to be announced or farm-in / sale of assets, then it is impressively watertight. I don't anticipate a big announcement. I imagine that Production figures will be somewhat higher than the 2,300 bopd announced in July. I still believe the recent reference to "significant increase" in production referred to the increase from 600 bopd to 2,300, which justified the renegotiation of the sales contract, and not to anything about to be announced tomorrow. I could be wrong, but if I am right, then I don't expect to see the share price set alight tomorrow, as I imagine a lot of the good news is in the price, especially as the good news about the sales contract moved the share price very little. But then WTFDIK ?!

[the_beagle] 27/9/2012 10:29

Tiny volume so far today. Obviously this is a very tight ship or there would have been more action leading up to tomorrow's results. Perhaps there is little there to move the shares, but I can't see that.

0700 will be very interesting imo and I'm looking for a high thirties share price

[ultrapunch] 26/9/2012 22:05

the_beagle. Most of those trades you mentioned yesterday at 30p, which you presumed where buys because they were at the 30p ask price, were in fact AT trades. So they presumably were not all buys. A lot were for 10k tranches. Presumably some were sells and some were buys. A matching seller for a matching buyer.

[triples] 25/9/2012 23:08

If you haven't seen it already, it's worth reading this post on the Fool:



This is why this share has become a long term hold for me.

[mojomonkey] 25/9/2012 17:40

I know what you mean the_beagle but how could they? Even if they could/can, would they risk it? share price movements are pretty random it seems, if we could work out why and when they would rise or fall then we would all be rich men!

GLA

[the_beagle] 25/9/2012 16:36

Buys, buys and more buys, and we close down! Not fixed?

[spacecake] 24/9/2012 19:58

Aim Rules for Companies.....

General disclosure of price sensitive information

11. An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge concerning a change in:

♦ its financial condition;
♦ its sphere of activity;
♦ the performance of its business; or
♦ its expectation of its performance, which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a substantial movement in the price of its AIM securities.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

... and thats why the info came out today instead of Friday imho.

[oilbuy] 24/9/2012 16:59

Broker Seymour Pierce noted that it had previously used a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of between $75.7 and $85.6 per barrel in its cash flow analysis of the firm.
The new sales agreement in this long-awaited update using Brent equates to an additional 8.2 pence a share on its previous forecasts, it said in a note.
Bayfield shares were up 7.83 per cent this afternoon, at 31 pence each.

[ultrapunch] 24/9/2012 16:14

Mojomonkey, the_beagle is spot on. They can't buy in the 6 week period leading up to the results being issued and they couldn't buy anyway as the company is still issuing 8.5 forms.

Todays RNS is excellent news. That 34% increase in the revenue figure based on current WTI and Brent crude prices will go straight through to the pre tax profit figures since the Cost of Sales plus admin costs will be unaffected. If crude prices stay as they are and the differential between WTI and Brent stays the same then from the 1st of August onwards that 34% revenue increase could increase pre tax profits by as much as 60% next year based on my figures. BEH is as cheap as chips based on next years estimated profits.

It's good news on the Gorilla 111 front as well, IMO. You don't want to be drilling a well you can't afford to drill!!

Don't forget just because we don't have the Gorrila 111 well spudding this year it doesn't mean we wont have further drill results this year. There are a further 2 development wells, of a 3 well program, have still to be drilled on Trintes. The results of the 1st were announced in the July RNS. It flowed at 536bopd. We might have the results of both announced on friday?

Regarding the comments of RNS the good news today followed by the bad on friday I just don't think O'sullivan is that cynical to do such a thing. It has been done on numerous occassions before by more shady companies, but I don't think O'Sullivan will do that. If he does the institutional holders will not be best pleased!! Nor will the PI's. I know I wouldn't be. I think BEH would lose all credibility with investors. My personal opinion is that if there was bad news he would have issued it today. Why? Well because that's an old trick. Tuck the bad news in with good news and the effect of the bad news is mitigated by the good.