Barratt Developments Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 25/3/2015 10:26

RDW - up 5% today - did tell you that was the cheapest of the lot the other day taffee - should be a decent April for the builders imo and RDW t/s in April ought to be special imo.

Don't fight the UK property mkt taffee.

CR

[1gw] 25/3/2015 09:29

Good volume yesterday and an 8.5p share price rise. Looks like good volume again today and another c. 10p rise already.

I wonder if we're seeing some short capitulation now. Nearly 7% shares on loan on average in February according to Euroclear (65m shares), which if they were being used to support short positions is an awful lot against even yesterday's volume of 4m shares..

I am tempted to take some profit here, but also keen to ride any short squeeze so will hold off for a bit longer.

[cockneyrebel] 25/3/2015 08:15

Stonking results from BWY - current sales up 10%

CR

[taffee] 25/3/2015 06:56

Has the market got interest rate rises wrong?

[redartbmud] 24/3/2015 21:02

supa

Happy thoughts.

red

[supasapi] 24/3/2015 16:44

in longer term............ we're all dead anyway

[taffee] 24/3/2015 15:13

I agree with you on that...point is though bearing in mind qe and nzirp used to be avoided like the plague as they were deemed last resort...what will the consequences be of qe and near zero rates...longer term?

[1gw] 24/3/2015 14:23

Whether it was in fact a blunder (and as you're trying to assess a "counter-factual" it's difficult for anyone to know for sure), there seems to be a view that the current fed does believe it was a mistake and therefore, according to this view, the current Fed is likely to have a bias towards leaving policy easier for longer than would otherwise be the case.

[taffee] 24/3/2015 14:14

Why was that a blunder?...it put US on a firm footing to become a super power..stocks went down from 194.40 to 98.95 but recovered..otherwise we just kick
The can the road...this approach in Japan ended in a massive stock and real estate
Anyway...and once deflation caught hold there were no measures they could take

[1gw] 24/3/2015 12:48

taffee - one counter to your argument is that the Fed appears terrified of repeating the mistake of 1937 where it seems to be generally accepted that the Fed tightened too soon. Therefore the risks to me seem still to be weighted far more towards leaving policy too loose for too long and therefore inflating bubbles from here, rather than tightening too soon and too hard and crashing the market from here. The last few years have been a great time to own equities in the UK and the US and personally I believe the balance of probabilities is that this run has a way to go, with perhaps a risk of irrational exuberance (bubbles) starting to show in the next year or two.

More pertinently for this forum, on housebuilders, I went to the Crest AGM last week - I was very encouraged by the confidence that everyone I spoke to was showing in the sustainability of the current strong environment for the UK housebuilders. Let's see if Bellway give a similarly confident view tomorrow.

[cockneyrebel] 24/3/2015 11:51

BWY interims tomorrow

CR

[cockneyrebel] 24/3/2015 10:05

New highs taffee

CR

[taffee] 24/3/2015 07:57

I don't think economies will collapse but they are structurally unsound...qe and near zero rates are not capitalism more zombieism ala japan...misallocation of
Capital and bubbles in.assets are rife...the consequences of current policies are
Unknown but unlikely to be very good....for central banks to be petrified to raise.interest rates for fear of economic collapse should make.any investor take a step back

[supasapi] 23/3/2015 18:06

hi Taffee I think the really useful gold thread is where some of your points may resonate - I am often ridiculed there (and simplified) as the one who thinks all is well - I don't think all is well, some people (especially vulnerable people have suffered since 2007) but my point is it has never all been well in capitalism - the machine changes and restructures and there are fluctuations - but it is all about stock selections and timing - some companies will go to the wall and some countries will have an awful time but others will prosper and benefit shareholders - so yes I understand problems of debt and leverage and quantitative easing and bubbles and so on but I think we are miles off an apocalyptic collapses of western economies

[taffee] 23/3/2015 08:31

Higher than before financial crisis..but don't worry everything is okay

[cockneyrebel] 21/3/2015 16:22

Europe is still the place to be

While we have had some big inflows into Europe these past few weeks we are still a long way from reversing the cumulative outflows seen since the crisis began. We believe that just under $170bn was withdrawn between 2007 and 2013. About $24bn was added in 2013 and another couple of billion last year. Since January we have seen c.$36bn more added (huge numbers on a monthly basis) however we have still only reverted to where we were in 2010. We need to check our numbers but it seems another $100bn or so needs to be added to get back to pre-crisis levels. As such, talk of Europe being ‘consensual’, or near a ‘top’ may be a little premature. Average dividend yields on European stocks are 3.1%, 55% higher than that of the US (2%) The UK is even higher on 3.8%. Moreover, with earnings at a trough and being well below trend, investors are paying a discount to own European stocks over their US peers should a recovery take hold. In fact on a relative CAPE basis, Europe has seldom been this cheap vs. the US. Stay long Europe.

[cockneyrebel] 21/3/2015 16:02

Gold taffee? What did gold do in 2007 crash - the worst since the 30's?

Cash? What bank will be safe if things are as bad as you say?

I'd buy a shotgun and a container full of baked beans if I were you and it's gonna be as dire as you say.

Fact is cheap oil is going to boos the global economy like nothing before in recent history imo and it's onna get cheaper if Iran are going to be exporting oil again.

All imo

CR

[taffee] 21/3/2015 14:42

With margin and leverage at all time highs they could be forced to sell...with
Deflation upon us cash and gold look like candidates in troubled times

Think in 1929 they said stocks have reached a permanently high plateau...just
Before the crash

[cockneyrebel] 21/3/2015 13:10

If everyone sold out of equities, where would the money go taffee?

CR

[cockneyrebel] 21/3/2015 13:10

Cramer taffee? That screaming nutcase? I can see why you're a bear, you watch too many horror films!

CR

[taffee] 21/3/2015 11:34

Hold on...now Cramer says why aren't you cashing in

[taffee] 21/3/2015 11:22

Here's one for the bulls...stocks will rally because 2015 has a 5 in it....!!!!!



By ed ponsi...

[taffee] 21/3/2015 11:09

They said all the same things in 2007...look what happened after that...clue is in
The oil price and Baltic dry index..if things were okay we wouldn't be printing
Money entering deflation have near zero rates and be drowning in worse debt than before the credit crunch

[cockneyrebel] 21/3/2015 10:52

taffee - how can you ever be right?

These would have to fall 40% to get back to where you were saying sell in August.

In the massive, biggest builder crash ever, back in 2007, it took BDEV nearly a year to fall 40%. Even if you were 'right', anyone that went long in August could still afford to lose 20% and then sell and still be well up on their investment. You talk like BDEV and other builders will go from 530p to 200p overnight.

You'll be right one day - but how much higher will these be before the market turns?

Oil plummeting making business costs cheaper and that money flooding into the consumer's pocket. Low inflation from oil meaning no need for rate hikes for some time. By the time we do get rate rises the economy will probably be much stronger and able to handle it. If your wages are rising at 3-4% per annum, your taxes starting to fall too, then small rate rises won't be a problem. We might get a 15-20% fall in builders then over 6 months to a year but they may be 20-30% or more higher by then than they are now.

The FTSE100 making a new high, copper breaking out, all suggests the global economy is starting to grow now - Europe in particular. And you've spent your whole time saying 'Woe, woe, the end is nigh!' while those long are up 50% since August. How stupid to have been a bull while you called it right lol.

All imo

CR

CR