Ballarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 05/1/2006 13:18

12vic,
i just hate these wide spreads in Uk and I notice the official spread shown on level 2 widened to 17-18 immediately after I sold 20000 at 17.35! A market should be a market as in OZ where spread is half a cent but you can of course put a bid in at current bid price and get hit , eg 41.5 - 42 at close and sales going through at both prices ( bit like SETS here but only institutions can benefit from it !). Outrageous system in UK ! MMS - just middle men taking a fat cut !

[arja] 05/1/2006 13:05

12vic,.
interesting post . BGF may well be good long term hold as you say but I am always suspicious of these "specs" as the directors pay themselves handsomely and are often rip off merchants . I saw this so often in OZ where I lived most of my life! Also, it needs big volume to move a cent or so . With gold falling today , I feel that BGF might fall a bit in OZ tonight although chart will remain in uptrend . Hence , I think I will sell part of my Uk holding and I still hold some on OZ register . Hope I am wrong and you get your 20p in next few days .

[12vic] 04/1/2006 20:23

Arja here's a topical article that was posted on another site - quite interesting as it gives an idea of the local sentiment toward Gold and Ballarat Goldfields ...... reminds me a bit of the old Wild West !

Gold fever strikes
Wednesday, 28 December 2005

GOLD FEVER has struck Ballarat following the discovery of gold nuggets worth more than $50,000 near Scarsdale earlier this month.
Interest in gold prospecting in the area has surged since the lucky find.

A Ballarat man, who wishes to remain anonymous, discovered the gold in shallow ground in a former mining area.

A total of eight nuggets were found, the largest weighing 1.1kg, and are estimated to be worth more than $50,000.

Founding president of the Prospectors and Miners Association of Victoria South Western Branch Max Muir said the recent discovery had woken people up to the fact that gold still lays beneath the Ballarat region.

"It is such a marvellous thing for Ballarat because every time a large nugget is found, people come from everywhere, it's like a magnet," Mr Muir said.

"My phone has been running hot since the discovery with everybody wanting to know who found the gold and where they can go to find gold themselves."

"If I knew, I wouldn't be telling anyone."

Mining Exchange Gold Shop owner Cordell Kent said he has witnessed a noticeable increase in four-wheel-drives heading bush in the hope of finding gold.

Mr Kent said large crowds have flocked to see the nuggets, currently on display at the Mining Exchange Gold Shop.

"We have had plenty of interested people, prospectors and non-prospectors, coming in for a look," Mr Kent said.

And amidst the gold rush frenzy, Ballarat is set to re-establish itself as a major Australian gold producer with Ballarat Goldfields having just poured its first gold bar following an 87-year layoff.

[12vic] 04/1/2006 19:35

I have no idea how charting works but will go with your opinion , would like to find out a bit more on chart predictions . I was predicting a slightly higher rise today and thought we might test 18p but not to matter as the trading pattern in Oz suggests this is only around the corner , just as dare I say it is the 20p mark . My expectations are for far higher than this medium term .

[arja] 04/1/2006 07:55

yes 12vic, equivalent to about 17.8pence as $A weaker against sterling . IF gold price holds up , chart says BGF will kick on in OZ as it should !

[12vic] 04/1/2006 07:16

Big trading day in Oz , finished at 42 cents last night , would hope for a move up on Aim today .

[12vic] 03/1/2006 14:44

Yes , but small tick up over here and gold doing very well today .

[arja] 03/1/2006 10:06

disappointing performance in Oz as clsed at 38.5 after hitting 39.5. Most other gold stocks did well ! Maybe a better day tomorrow!

[arja] 01/1/2006 14:31

12vic,
possibly the mark up could have been due to the gold price movement in Uk trading time and the MM might have thought the OZ price would kick on , ie. he was trying to anticiplate future events? not much movement in currency at end of last week .
Re RIO, I often wonder there could be an arbitrage opportunity ! probably not as the logistics and time taken to transfer stock to Australia means you might be out on a limb so to speak . But worth thinking about for anyone who has account with both Uk and OZ broker . BLT also had quite a big price differential lately but is has narrowed in last week and even slow moving Bramnles had a similar experience!!

[arja] 30/12/2005 23:08

12vic,
You make some interesting points but I have assumed that supply and demand is almost irrelevant in these dual listed stocks . punters simply look at the closing price in OZ and convert at current exchange rate to try and decide what they are prepared to buy or sell at . The MM does the same and can not go wrong with his wide spread . The system here seems to be for benefit of MMs and to ensure they make a good living as middlemen !
Presumably there are not so many shares on Uk AIM register so hard to achieve high volume . At certain times ( Eg . when gold price moves up sharply during Uk trading hours ) I suppose there could be increased volume and even a higher closing price here than in OZ . UK would then temporarily have become lead market . I notice other dual listed stocks such as ROC also have low volume in UK and a wide spread !
One thing I can not figure out is why a stock like RIO trades at such a big discount to the OZ price - recently almost a £3 difference ! used to be much less of a disparity . Any thoughts on that ? Maybe different voting rights ?

[gringostar] 30/12/2005 22:52

12vic I see you have been to the 'STOCKS TO DOUBLE IN 2006' thread to support my entry. Hope it happens!

[12vic] 30/12/2005 18:01

Thankyou Arja , and likewise :)

I'm not certain how market makers maintain equilibrium on dual listings , but if there was excessive demand on shares over here that would surely move the price in the same way it would in Australia . The general trend has been low volume in the UK , I was wondering if a sudden high volume of shares would have a more dramatic effect due to stock limits . In situation of lots of buyers and no sellers perhaps a market used to a volume of about 100,000 shares a day , might struggle to fill orders should we suddenly trade in huge volumes as in Oz . Granted that would require a refocus of investors attention at an unprecedented level for BGF in the UK .

[arja] 30/12/2005 09:53

12vic,
I think it would still follow Aussie price as lead market and presumably many more shares on OZ register. Closed at 16.55 pence in OZ based on 39 cents but MD looked a bit weak . Main thing is that chart still shows solid uptrend and this stock always has pullback after sharpish rise . Gold price looks like it will come off today as end year profits taken but hopefully it will not affect BGF much! All the best for 2006.

[12vic] 30/12/2005 08:57

Seem to have reaffirmed the 39 cent level in Oz on 6 million trades last night . Good to see slight rise over here as offer touches 17 p . Makes you wonder what sort of dramatic impact there might be on the price if it was ever heavily traded on Aim .

[jed tinsel] 29/12/2005 20:39

WirralOwl,

Yes, thanks to 'graham brown' for posting on the '2double' thread. I liked the 'story', did some research and dipped my toe in. ;-)

[12vic] 29/12/2005 16:38

At an estimate cash position between 70-80 million A$

[arja] 29/12/2005 15:02

Mkt cap is A$435m so must be about 1100m shares in issue . Quite a lot !

[wirralowl] 29/12/2005 14:17

Interesting thread, thanks to graham-brown for bringing to my attention. Anyone know the current market cap. at 16p (post recent fund raising)?

As an aside, I just checked my online ISA account with iDealing who wouldn't accept this stock as eligible to be bought in ISA, but I would've thought its dual listing would make it eligible? I hold Consolidated Minerals and ROC Oil with them too, who are also AIM stocks listed in Oz. Strange.

Thanks in advance for any Mkt Cap info.

[arja] 29/12/2005 11:53

12vic,
Interested to hear your view of the fundamentals as i purely rely on charts but wish I had more time to study the fundamentals as well . Some gold stocks in OZ held on to their gains last night, eg. SBM , so a bit disturbing that BGF was down on the day ! maybe that is of no significance as stock still in uptrend and has a history of pulling back after a breakout . So it may weaken in OZ tonight especially if gold price does dip a bit after recent strong rally ! Very thinly traded here though and nice for MM who love illiquidity !!

[12vic] 29/12/2005 10:13

Good to see your post on the other board Graham , it will help bang home the way BGF is moving at the moment . I just hope that more UK investors start to open their eyes to the achievements so far and huge potential to come from this company .I've been in since March 2005 , and will continue to hold , there is plenty of room for this stock to progress .

Arja - 17 million volume in Oz yesterday , the interest is certainly there to push this one up into the 40's as we saw last night with buying at 42 . Holding it there is of course another matter - short to medium term this will rely predominantly on production updates , but the 4th quarter results which should be released January could be positive enough to do this on their own though !

One things for certain , if come June time we're near to the 55,000 ounce production figure the brokers and others suggest - the 40's will be a thing of the past .

[arja] 29/12/2005 09:23

12vic,
Yes, I was thinking in same way as you and hence bought some yesterday although I hold stock on OZ market . SD abolished in OZ in July 2001 but I still thought it would be charged here - nice surprise!
Both £A and sterling weaker against $US in recent weeks but sterling sufferec most so pound weaker against $A on the crosses . I agree with you that that may continue for a short while and marginally benefits Uk price for BGF .
Thanks for suggesting that site . I will check it out and recall it when I wasa last in W.A . I lived in OZ for most of my life .
My pet hate in Uk is MMs and their spreads . Should be made obsolete and no Mms down under! Much easier to trade a stock and make a few dollars - only need a cent or so movement whereas here the Mm spread can be 2.5 cents or so !!

[graham_brown1] 29/12/2005 08:27

Have posted BGF on the below board:
Stocks to Double in 2006 - we name them (100%)

[jed tinsel] 29/12/2005 08:07

Just treated myself to 5k's worth.

;-)

[arja] 29/12/2005 07:53

12vic,
Thanks for interesting comments. Disappointed to see BGF hit 42 but finish at 38.5 ! Hopefully just profit taking but down half a cent on day with gold price roaring . will comment more later . I guess Uk price will only change marginally !