Ballarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 13/2/2006 18:56

hi 12vic- the gold price is a concern and all we can do is look at the chart . It has fallen below the short term up trend line and likely now to fall to about $526 where the support level is . But I think it is still only a correction in longer term uptrend and all markets experience this. I did sell half of my remaining holding last night and can hopefully buy again when price stabilises . Can not of course jump in and out in Uk market because of the MM system and wide % spread ! Good luck and I hope the gold price has a temporary bounce tonight in asian time .

[12vic] 13/2/2006 17:24

Hello Arja - was expecting small drop in UK price to reflect movement in Oz but instead slight rise . I'm just not sure what to make of gold at the moment it looks like it should be going up but there's definately background activity trying to push it the other way . It has certainly been on a rocket ride recently so is due some correction as you point out but even so the trend still looks like it should be an upward one to me .

[arja] 10/2/2006 21:39

Gold certainly took a beating today after doing well in night . But, as you say 12 vic , it may not affect BGF unduly . But it would surprise me if not off a cent or so in OZ on Monday . It held up better than the blue chip gold stocks like LHG on Friday . I am still holding my OZ stock but a bit wary if gold price corrections continue. Have a nice weekend .

[12vic] 10/2/2006 07:47

BGF up 1.5 cents last night ending at 46.5 in Oz , should see move up here back to circa 20 p . If anybody chose to trade over the last few days they might have been able to buy back in at a 1p per share profit . A bit too risky for me Arja as you point out - would rather stay in for the medium term action . There is plenty of possibility of price sensitive annnouncements from BGF which I believe might far outweigh the impact of gold price annomalies . I base my reasoning for this on the published production costs which are predicted to be some $300 below current market price .

I've given up trying to guess gold direction but for what it's worth I think we may now move between $545 - 570 for a little while .

[arja] 10/2/2006 07:42

gold hit $569 in night but then plunged and now only $557.5 i notice - mama mia! But BGF held on to it's small gain and closed at 46.5 which looks promising as it was a friday !

[12vic] 09/2/2006 19:30

That's some recovery gold at $566 .

[arja] 09/2/2006 09:19

yes, nice to see the gold price recovering during the night which helped BGF and most gold stocks in OZ close higher. MMs mean it is not really worthwhile trying to trade it in Uk and myabe you are wise just to take a position and hold while uptend still in place . I prefer to trade them down under!! Hard to pick next move in gold price and hopefully it was not just a bounce and will continue upwards. but i fear that it might need a further correction ! Hope i am wrong ! $US strengthening lately which is perhaps not a good sign .

[12vic] 09/2/2006 07:19

Looks like a bit of a recovery last night on good volume 10 million + trades , at one point back up to 46 then settling at 45 . Tuesday and Wednesday created a rare opportunity to sell and buy back in at a slightly lower price in the UK .

Gold back on upward path .

[arja] 08/2/2006 07:55

12vic,
Yes hopefully a corporate move is afoot . I am still holding some in OZ but would not add at pesent . Watching the gold price as BGF will probably not swim against the tide if it keeps falling in short term. It did better than most other old stocks last night as only a 2 cent drop to 44 .

[12vic] 08/2/2006 07:29

Looks like market reacted as you guessed it would short term correction for gold movement, maybe a chance to buy shares back a bit cheaper .

[12vic] 07/2/2006 21:15

Quite a swing in gold as you say Arja but probably a short term one , I would expect some sort of recovery over next few days . Will be interesting to watch what happens tonight in Oz , as it has been very difficult to judge just how BGF will react . I think the upward momentum is still there and maybe something going on behind the scenes of a corporate nature as was hinted towards end of last week .

[arja] 07/2/2006 20:57

Not so sure about that! On that basis , we should not be holding a gold "spec" !!

[jed tinsel] 07/2/2006 17:16

Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.

~ Warren Buffet

The sharemarket is the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.

~ Warren Buffet

[arja] 07/2/2006 15:33

Unexpectedly large fall in gold price today 12vic . I am afraid I panicked and just sold 20,000 at 19.80 . Bought them on 2nd at 20p so a small loss! I still hold some in OZ and hope this gold price fall will only affect BGF a little but could drop to about 43cents quite easily . Hopefully it will be more resilient !

[12vic] 07/2/2006 09:11

Can't help smiling every time I see the chart , yesterdays Oz loss made up overnight . Good that large buyers are showing themselves over here now !

[jed tinsel] 06/2/2006 09:23

From Resource Investor:

`Incidentally, $570 in 1981 is equivalent to about $1,224 in 2005 dollars. Put another way, gold would have to rise about 114% to reach the same purchasing power as when Ronald Reagan took office as president.`

[arja] 06/2/2006 08:58

disappointing that down 1/2 cent in OZ when gold price moved higher. But BGF seems to do it's own thing and ignores gold price ! Chart still uptrending though so hopefully it will perform better tonight . Whoops,I notice a million went through today in UK although maybe just a crossing !

[jed tinsel] 06/2/2006 08:58

Someone's confident (1mil buy).

;-)

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[tanny310] 06/2/2006 04:44

What's right with the market? Alot, if you can get the best breaking stock news available. This newsletter is just the ticket for getting up to date info on moving stocks. You will receive an email when something is on the move or about to move. Definitely worth a few minutes of your time

[gringostar] 05/2/2006 23:06

The current MC of BGF is around $400mUSD
200k ounces at $300US per ounce profit would give an annual profit of $60mUSD which would give a sub 7 PE with a good chance of more discoveries and output to come.

[12vic] 05/2/2006 17:22

Good point and that said I'll repost some research on cost per ounce at Ballarat East .

With gold now appearing to want to settle above $560 it seems an appropriate time to consider highlighting a few forward looking figures . These are general figures based primarily on the RBC capital research document released in early 2005 , an old document but the only material available that gives actual approximations of cash cost and total cost per ounce from Ballarat East . The original figures were published in Australian Dollars but for ease I have used US Dollars based on todays exchange rates .

RBC quote a cash cost per ounce for BGF at $206 ( Compare this with Bendigo at $285 ).
The total cost per ounce is given as $257 , so at the current gold price using these figures we can estimate a profit of $300+ an ounce !

It would seem likely that initial cost per ounce will probably be higher at the start of the production phase , even so taking the above figures as an average over the proposed 20 year mine period and applying todays gold price returns staggering figures . Consider a production rate of 200,000 ounces a year .

Pure generalisations and specifically focused on tHe Ballarat East project only , but still worth keeping in mind .

[keith365] 05/2/2006 15:59

Mining stocks also offer leverage to commodity prices. Take a gold mining company as an example. Assume we have a company that mines gold for a total cost of $400 an ounce, and let us pretend the gold price is $500 an ounce. The net present value of the mine would be calculated based on the $100 margin. If the gold price increases by 20% to $600 an ounce the net present value of the mine will double, since the margin would now be $200 an ounce. Thus the value of the company increased five times more than the increase in the gold price. Most people buy mining stocks because of this leverage.

[12vic] 05/2/2006 09:59

That's 1.1 million ounces on one project . BGF exploration work is now fully funded and underway on another 3 potential deposits nearby - seems to be all good news .