||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Software & Computer Services
Real-Time news about Axon Grp. (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|screamer: So...Infy have been dropped in favour of a bid that hasn't actually been made yet. Does this worry any other holders?
If for whatever reason HCL fail to get a bid together then where will we be? Remember it's not exactly the best time to be going to the bank to ask for vast wads of cash especially to buy a company whose share price had more than halved in the year up to the initial Infosys bid being made.
Personally I think/hope at least one other counterbid will come as it's still a steal at £6.50. Whether Infy come back or another player enters the game remains to be seen. I'll feel a lot better when another bid is actually confirmed though and I wouldn't be surprised if the MMs took the opportunity to have some fun and games with the price in the meantime.
|ringer12: Just whittled my holding down a bit more ...will now await the recovery! Probably one of the biggest trades so far and that,s not saying much.
Question..if nobody buys and nobody sells what do tha MM.s do with the share price? Up or down? What happens to the principle of supply and demand?|
|joestalin: From K,S & F:-
Initiating Coverage with a BUY Rating
Over the last three years, Axon has posted one of the best organic sales and profit growth performances in the sector. However, it is a cyclical business and worries about its earnings momentum in a downturn are understandable. We believe the current share price already discounts considerable downside risk to its margin and its below sector rating presents a good opportunity to own a stock which continues to have strong growth prospects. BUY, TP 615p.
An Enviable Record of Organic Sales and Profit Growth
Axon has a tremendous track record of organic growth, posting double digit growth rates in the last four years of 20%, 38%, 41% and 29%. Consensus revenue estimates for 2008 currently assume 20% organic growth. Over this period, margins continuously improved and its 2007 EBIT margin of 16.2% (post SBP) is some way above its peers. Market share in the UK is now at 16% but there are significant growth opportunities in the US and other international markets where its share is less than 2%. However, it is a cyclical company, dependent on continuing investments by large enterprises in IT, specifically on the SAP platform. The recent positive Q1 update (shares rose 10% on the day) was reassuring, but residual concern on earnings momentum in the event of a downturn is understandable.
...Cyclical, but has Defensive Qualities
In the last downturn, Axon saw revenues contract 2% in 2001 and 11% in 2002, with EBIT margins bottoming out at 8.3%. However, this was no ordinary cycle given the well documented over-investment in the tech sector in the years prior. Some types of projects that fell away at that time like pure Internet projects have not been seen for some time. By contrast, 80% of the group's current work is on transformation programmes, which should be more recession proof. We also believe that enterprise spending (as opposed to consumer) is more defensive in this cycle and that its vertical exposure (little financial services and retail in the mix) should see it weather the downturn better than investors fear.
13% Discount to Peers, DCF Points to Considerable Upside
At 12.5x Cal'08 P/E, Axon trades on a 13% discount to its peers, despite its
strong track record and growth prospects. Our adjusted EPS appear to be c10% below consensus but that is because we adjust for share based payments. A DCF using 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth, 7.5% mid-term growth and LT margin of 12.1% (ten year average) yields our fair value of 615p. A bearish scenario (4% mid-term growth and LT margin of 8.3%, which was the trough in the last ten years) yields 378p, while a bullish scenario assuming 10% mid-term growth and LT margin of 15% yields an 848p fair value. We believe the risk to this stock is to the upside and initiate with a BUY rating and 615p target price.|
|fieldhouse: Have been looking back at the historical news.In march 2005 the founding Axon
directors placed in an Executive reward scheme 4.9 million shares.Option to be
exersised in three years time provided the share price had risen 150% ie £5
5th march 08,exersisable date, share price tanks QED|
|ringer12: Just a small gripe!.I,m sure it doesn,t help the share price to see ADVFN financials still showing the P/E ratio 19.23 based on 2006/7 results. On the 2007/8 results this should be now under 10 and all being well with the present years results it will hopefully be appreciably lower in the single figure range.Even small shreholders do sometimes look at P/E ratios before making decisions and looking at the daily trades it would appear that Axon's share price is somewhat influenced by an accumulation of small trades easily manipulatd by the MM,s.....but they wouldn't do that would they!!!?|
|ringer12: It looks like the share price is being manipulated on the sale of small quanties of shares.....However the downturn in the share price co-incided a while back with Mr hunter'e sale of a chunk of his shares. Since it has been mooted that he he would probably want to sell the remainder the question is what price would he be prepared to accept? Also if he is no longer a director can he sell his shares without them being reported?|
|fieldhouse: I was on holiday when the results came out,a hell of a shock to see the share
have been checking brokers expectations and in december the concensus profit
expectation for 07 was £37.63 million !!---missed by quite a mile.
expectations for 08 in december were £39.89 million,revised figure is £36.79,
as you can see,less than the expectations for 07 in december.
All this coupled with Mark Hunter offloading his shares,sub prime issues,global
slowdown,small cap companies out of favour and bingo,no hostages taken and we are where we are.
It look to me browsing share price charts that the majority of shares have lost any froth that they might have accumlated in 07 and the share price is back to 05/07 levels/-i guess where we are.
We need the pesemists to be wrong,i personaly am an optomist,current pe ratio
is to low.Many things can happen,they have cash in the bank,takeover or be takenover.Splash the profits on a larger divi if expansion is delayed.
Just trying to be rational about emotive issues.
|fieldhouse: have been checking past bear market,2002/2003.Axon lowest price looks
about 70 p in 2002.Profit for dec 03 =4.6p per share.Dec 03 share price
We now have a projected eps for dec 07 of 37.64 and 08 of 42.76.
If my figures are correct that is a 10 fold increase in earnings
from the depths of the last bear market. Comparable share price?
I dont think so !!!!
Just think we should be looking at figures instead of looking at
|spacecake: Hi bb,
I remember you posting once that one of the reasons that AXO share price out performed on the way up was due to the poor liquidity, therefore AXO will underperform on the way down - a loss leader.
The underlying business is sound to date. However, I do find myself looking east for indications of a big market fall rather than west to the states these days.|
|wilmdav: Still enjoying the informed daily comments and conversations. You guys clearly know what you are doing.
You seem to quite like charts and I couldn't help noticing the similarity of Autonomy's (AU.) with that of Axon.
My charts are a bit unusual in that they track the log of share price rather than the price itself. Just bear in mind that if a log value crosses three grid spaces the share price has doubled. AU.'s slope is slightly steeper than Axon's because there are 9 grid spaces compared to Axon's 8.
I hold both stocks.|
Axon share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange