Axon Share Discussion Threads

[blockbuy] 01/7/2008 10:24

morning all..........an acquisition there.........another one...........the future must be bright imo.............

nice................

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[mrminister] 30/6/2008 15:11

don't know bb, bit strange....

so whats bought this rise on then today, been threatening for a few days now.

[blockbuy] 30/6/2008 15:01

urm, how come the UK is surging yet the US dropping again?????????

nice..........

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[blockbuy] 30/6/2008 11:31

morning all............calmer day then so far..............

nice.............

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[blockbuy] 27/6/2008 14:18

afternoon all...........ok zip volume and a drop..............most things that dropped earlier this morning have recovered somewhat.............seems the US people want to spend their rebates...........

wouldn't it be nice for the UK to give some money back.................

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[ringer12] 26/6/2008 19:11

Disaster again on small trade volumes...seems the MM,s can just make this share go any way they want..seems that unless there is some institutional buying the share price will continue downwards.
Re house building...on the one hand they tell you there is a big shortage and on the other there are more empty houses than ever...seems typical of the financial logic nowadays. IT would appear all the spare money at present is going into banks via rights issues etc.to shore up their reserves....billions of pounds..could this be affecting the rest of the market.

[blockbuy] 26/6/2008 17:44

afternoon all..........carnage.............but getting closer to all the retail being cleared out and no doubt institutional long term programs kicking in imo............

heard something the other day which should underpin the UK.........The US housebuilders are building more houses than required right now.......they've got swathes of land.............however the UK has a housing shortage and can't keep up with expected demand..........builder are building less and less houses to protect themselves yet the UK need to build some 3m more houses.............so not enough houses to meet demand..........they reckon that should keep the downturn limited..................

also saw a headline ticker on doomberg last night that oil to be back around $70 in 2015.............in real terms that'll be dirt cheap............

I've started saving now for a big nasty v8............

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[mrminister] 26/6/2008 14:50

terrible day all round again.....oracal not helping this sector today

[ringer12] 25/6/2008 16:59

Well what a pleasent surprise to see a plus. Looks like there was some action to-day with some sizable trades and prices yo-yoing with late trades etc. Could we possibly be due for a rise to-morrow or will this put the jinx on it?

[joestalin] 25/6/2008 08:01

November when they elect the new potus.

[ringer12] 24/6/2008 19:24

How long will it be until this share and the FTSE rise on two consecutive days?

[ringer12] 23/6/2008 18:11

Yes Joe. As you say movements on small volumes...To-days trades all on one page! By the way I see your MOG is doing nicely ..wish I had taken your tip but I,m already in SOCO and waiting for some results with bated breath!.

[joestalin] 21/6/2008 10:41

It is the silly season. Movements on little volume. Wait until the US election in November and things should normalise.

[ringer12] 20/6/2008 23:08

I think it,s get out and wait see time.Can't see any real sustainable improvement from here. Have been thinking this for a while but unfortunately not acted so watching my portfolio drifting down not exactly inspiring! Ftse is now nearly 1000p down from it.s high and going where? I see the highest risers today were the housebuilders just as HBOS have forecast a 10% fall in house prices for 2008!...Typical reverse logic of the market presumably!

[blockbuy] 20/6/2008 16:28

afternoon all.............up down, up down.........boing...........drop............

450 holding well though................looking at Q3/Q4 for general positive movement..........

nice............

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[mrminister] 19/6/2008 08:33

held on to blue most of the day ringer.....just fell in the final furlong

tricky times... still watching waiting & wondering me...

bang ! + 16p from nowere....lol

[ringer12] 18/6/2008 19:31

Back to normal,I see! ...A drop of 10p on the basis of a few piffling trades.

[ringer12] 17/6/2008 17:31

Nice to see a plus for a change! However it seems to show how the share price can be manipulated on a relatively low volume of deals!.

[mrminister] 17/6/2008 09:04

well a handfull of trades & 4k traded and up 16 points..... leaves me scratching my head sometimes

[joestalin] 15/6/2008 13:02

From K,S & F:-

Axon (AXO.L)
Initiating Coverage with a BUY Rating

Over the last three years, Axon has posted one of the best organic sales and profit growth performances in the sector. However, it is a cyclical business and worries about its earnings momentum in a downturn are understandable. We believe the current share price already discounts considerable downside risk to its margin and its below sector rating presents a good opportunity to own a stock which continues to have strong growth prospects. BUY, TP 615p.

An Enviable Record of Organic Sales and Profit Growth
Axon has a tremendous track record of organic growth, posting double digit growth rates in the last four years of 20%, 38%, 41% and 29%. Consensus revenue estimates for 2008 currently assume 20% organic growth. Over this period, margins continuously improved and its 2007 EBIT margin of 16.2% (post SBP) is some way above its peers. Market share in the UK is now at 16% but there are significant growth opportunities in the US and other international markets where its share is less than 2%. However, it is a cyclical company, dependent on continuing investments by large enterprises in IT, specifically on the SAP platform. The recent positive Q1 update (shares rose 10% on the day) was reassuring, but residual concern on earnings momentum in the event of a downturn is understandable.

...Cyclical, but has Defensive Qualities
In the last downturn, Axon saw revenues contract 2% in 2001 and 11% in 2002, with EBIT margins bottoming out at 8.3%. However, this was no ordinary cycle given the well documented over-investment in the tech sector in the years prior. Some types of projects that fell away at that time like pure Internet projects have not been seen for some time. By contrast, 80% of the group's current work is on transformation programmes, which should be more recession proof. We also believe that enterprise spending (as opposed to consumer) is more defensive in this cycle and that its vertical exposure (little financial services and retail in the mix) should see it weather the downturn better than investors fear.

13% Discount to Peers, DCF Points to Considerable Upside
At 12.5x Cal'08 P/E, Axon trades on a 13% discount to its peers, despite its
strong track record and growth prospects. Our adjusted EPS appear to be c10% below consensus but that is because we adjust for share based payments. A DCF using 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth, 7.5% mid-term growth and LT margin of 12.1% (ten year average) yields our fair value of 615p. A bearish scenario (4% mid-term growth and LT margin of 8.3%, which was the trough in the last ten years) yields 378p, while a bullish scenario assuming 10% mid-term growth and LT margin of 15% yields an 848p fair value. We believe the risk to this stock is to the upside and initiate with a BUY rating and 615p target price.

[wilmdav] 15/6/2008 12:46

Couple of research notes available here:



07/05/08 from Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander is positive.

14/03/08 from KBC Peel Hunt is negative. General market was at one of its low points at that date. Peel Hunt are not one of my favourite brokers.

[mrminister] 11/6/2008 10:18

i'm out for now....can't read it

[joestalin] 11/6/2008 09:56

This dilutes the existing shareholding but the price seems to be gaining. The market is mad right now.

[blockbuy] 11/6/2008 09:46

morning all.........Feanix takeover prooving to have done well then with the creation of 742,969 shares..............

nice.............

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