Axis-shield Share Discussion Threads

[hotfinance14] 18/10/2011 14:08

SP just went up to 474p!!!!

[hotfinance14] 18/10/2011 10:12

I think you are correct Scobie... I will sell mine just before the deadline as there could be another offer.

[scobiebreasley] 18/10/2011 09:45

HF - as i understand it, if Alere get 75%+ of shares they will delist the company from the stockmarket, and then it would almost be impossible for any remaining shareholders to sell their shares, rendering the shares almost worthless.

That is why ASD recommended shareholders to accept the offer to avoid this eventuality.

as i said, this is just my understanding so check with your broker

[hotfinance14] 18/10/2011 08:31

What happens if you dont accept the offer and Alere's bid is succesful ?

[slaterlpj] 17/10/2011 18:34

Ic says hold. Very interesting.

Trouble is my broker says I have to accept by the 20th October. (Nominee account, and they need the notice to accept before the deadline on the 24th).



With hindsight, I realise that we all missed a golden opportunity.

Remember a few weeks back the share price sunk to circa 400? Then rose and the offer of 460 was made. Then Alere announce 29.9%, and subsequently ASD capitulate at 470.

A few years ago, Northgatge (NIS) was bought out. Just prior to the offer, the share price sank from circa 100 to about 60 ish. Then just as suddenly the offer was made and the share price rose to near the offer price. I thought that stunk to high heaven too.

Now I realise that was a signal that an offer was about to be made. It looks to me like the share price was driven down to allow the predator to sweep up cheap shares and attain an advantage. I could of course be wrong.

[tratante] 17/10/2011 13:48

IC is still advising "sit tight" presumably also thinks a third part bid is not impossible, but I am tempted to sell in the market rather than hang around much longer. Happy to have got above the offer price on earlier tranches, but not happy at all with the way this has been sold so cheaply, not that I am surprised; seen it so many times before with uk cos.

[hotfinance14] 14/10/2011 10:56

Slater...a third party bid can still come in!!!

[slaterlpj] 14/10/2011 10:45

Nor do I.
I thought that since Alere had upped to 470, and ASD had reccomended in favour, this was a done and dusted deal. So I dont understand why anyone other than Alere would want to buy these.

That's interesting Hot. I thought it was still 50% as Alere claimed. I'll read my brokers note too and see what it says.

[jpjp100] 14/10/2011 09:51

2p is 2p then

real answer is I don't know!

[hotfinance14] 14/10/2011 09:33

They need over 75% to delist...thats in the note from my broker.

[slaterlpj] 14/10/2011 09:06

I understand they still only need 50% to delist the remaining shares, and then you don't have any means to sell them.

[hotfinance14] 14/10/2011 08:40

What happens if you dont accept the offer and Alere dont gain 90% so they can compulsory buy the remaining ASD shares ?

[slaterlpj] 14/10/2011 08:14

Why 7 p? The final offer is 470.

[slaterlpj] 13/10/2011 18:24

Why would FM Capital Partners Ltd be increasing a long position at 468?

[slaterlpj] 13/10/2011 09:03

Ah, but back down again.

[hotfinance14] 13/10/2011 08:28

Perhaps they know something we dont!!!

[slaterlpj] 13/10/2011 07:37

Well unless it's Alere or it's agents, why would anyone else do that? they have nothing to gain.

As Alere are now pretty well certain to get at least 50%, why would they buy and incur dealing charges to buy on the market, at so close to 470. Must cost them more.

[hotfinance14] 12/10/2011 17:22

Somebody purchased some shares.

[slaterlpj] 12/10/2011 16:56

Why has the share price gone up?

[mutantpoodle] 08/10/2011 08:56

many thanks your ideas

as you suggest my costs would be greater than £300
at 3p a share it exceeds that
let alone costs (broker not online deal)

i dont consider myself clever enouhgh to safely find the oversold stock...specifically, I can see many many oversold decent companies for the long term
but short term i doubt i would get it right!

my best safe plays...British Energy and Marconi say it all!!

still I do get some right!!

thanks again

[slaterlpj] 08/10/2011 08:04

mutantpoodle, re margin.

If you sell without waiting you lose circa 3p per share, plus 10 or 11 or 20 quid or whatever dealing costs, dependant on your holding. Selling 10000 shares might cost you circa 250 quid.

In the meantime, a month perhaps before you get your money, you are not liquid and in a position (unless you have other funds), to purchase other currently oversold stock in another company. Even if you do have other funds, this particular money is lying idle.

You might be taking the view that some miracle will occur and propel the ASD share price north of 470. I don't see any possiblity of that myself, ---- sadly.

So for me the margin is in not waiting.

[slaterlpj] 08/10/2011 07:53

My reply to Dr Gilham ---- for what it's worth, which is nothing I suppose. :)


Dear Dr Gilham,

Thank you for taking the time and trouble to write to me personally.

"Under such circumstances it becomes the Boards fiduciary duty to warn shareholders of that risk and to advise them to accept Alere's offer price rather than risk being owners of valueless shares. I'm sure you wouldn't thank us for advising you to end up in such a situation?"

No indeed, nobody would have thanked you for such advice.

However, if the news that Axis were in talks with an alternate company (without naming that company) had been announced publicly earlier, that in my view would have been sufficient to sway those wavering shareholders to hold rather than sell to Alere. Had such an announcement been made earlier, the share price would have risen, and Alere would have been denied the opportunity to purchase ASD stock at levels well below 460.

Of course many shareholders, might have been assuming, guessing, or speculating that such talks were indeed going on, but that is not the same as, knowing that to be the case.

It seems to me that had shareholders known about talks earlier (even just the public mention that talks were underway with an unnamed 3rd party), it would likely have prevented Alere reaching the figure of 29.9%, or at the very least delayed that until closer to their deadline. I think it further likely that previous offerees, would have withdrawn their offer of shares to Alere. This in turn would have made it far less likely, even improbable, that Alere would then have been able to the reach 50% required to delist.

I do consider it rather bad form to blame Axis shareholders for the sale of the company for a figure significantly under it's true worth.

Yours sincerely

slaterlpj
Shareholder.