Axis-shield Share Discussion Threads

[shuisky] 06/10/2011 09:35

hotfinance,

Yep. They've talked to their institutional shareholders and they have obviously indicated that they were willing to sell out.

This is what happens when you give inaccurate guidance, as I think ASD have done in the past. it takes away credibility and perhaps institutions are less willing to support them remaining independent.

Alere, as usual, have played a blinder.

[hotfinance14] 06/10/2011 09:08

Thats a good point.They state 460p significantky undervalues ASD but ask us to accept 470p.They have been put under pressure by big shareholders I expect. Ian Gillham the Ceo will now have to move on.

[hotfinance14] 06/10/2011 08:40

I still think an offer from a third party will be made.

[wan] 06/10/2011 08:23

Admittedly higher risk (with potentially high reward), Avacta (AVCT) is also worth a look.

[shuisky] 06/10/2011 08:15

jpjp100,

Yep, that's what we've come to expect from this board. They had a great product but, IMHO, have failed to extract full value from it.

We all know that the usual route for a UK medtech co is to develop a product and then sell out to a US co so it can be cmmercially exploited in the US. All of which is fine, but had ASD been more accurate in its statements to the market than it would have commanded a much higher rating, IMHO.


BTW, this is the at least the third time that Inverness/Alere have bought a UK co on the cheap. They know what they are doing. If you look back, BBI and Concateno were both bought for cheap prices, IMHO.

As for what could be the next target in UK medtech?

I think AMS is worth a look.

[langland] 06/10/2011 08:09

Or AGL even.

[wan] 06/10/2011 08:06

For a management team with an excellent track record in growing shareholder value, EKF Diagnostics might fill the void (disappointment) for funds looking for a similar exposure to medical diagnostics.

[hotfinance14] 05/10/2011 17:56

If Alere dont buy ASD then ASD will be taking a good chunk of their future revenues...they are concerned.

[edgar3] 05/10/2011 17:31

Agree that Alere getting concerned.

They have tried very hard to give the impression that they don't really give a damn either way: plainly they do ............

[scobiebreasley] 05/10/2011 16:25

I guess the answer to your valid query will become clearer as to how the remaining large institutional shareholders react in the next few days....

[slaterlpj] 05/10/2011 15:53

But they also say they could block future bids with their (Alere's) near 30% holding.

How much credence should this be given?

[scobiebreasley] 05/10/2011 15:48

The latest announcement this afternoon from Alere sounds like they may be getting concerned about not reaching the 50% threshold. As of today they still only had 29.9%.

To me it looks like they are trying to use unconvincing scare tactics on shareholders to try to convince them to sell, by mentioning the fact that the third party to whom ASD were talking about a higher offer, has walked away for the time being. What they fail to mention is the fact that the third party still retain the right to make an offer for ASD (at hopefully a significantly higher price) should Alere's hostile bid fail.

[soulman] 05/10/2011 09:43

I wonder what Alere will do with its 30% holding if their bid is unsuccessful? Do they/can they just dump it or do they hold onto it? If this other higher bid actually materialises they could make a few quid out it.

[slaterlpj] 05/10/2011 07:45

Yes, I agree. I thought they must have been burned too.

However, maybe they see a way to recover the losses. They wouldn't gamble twice I wouldn't have thought, unless feeling fairly confident of a success this time round.

Only 5 days left, and it may be about to get very interesting.

[jpjp100] 05/10/2011 07:36

first eagle is back on the board today - adding to its CFD long position.

As far as I can see, it got burnt by selling a big chunk of this position previously and is now adding to it at 450+

[jpjp100] 03/10/2011 11:37

looks quiet for now slaterpj - I expect there is plenty going on behind the scenes

Publicly Alere can't do much really, it has played its hand to shareholders and it has bought as many shares as it can in the market.

Publicly ASD can't do much really either, it has shown its cards to shareholders and is waiting for the flop (the other bidder to be outed? some big holders pronouncing which way they are going to go?)

Just a week from now and the Alere offer closes...

[slaterlpj] 03/10/2011 09:06

All quiet on the western front then. lol.

[edgar3] 02/10/2011 12:19

slater,

I understand Alere's 30% stake to have been achieved through buying stock on the market. Hence the support for the share price at £4.60. You've only got to look at the RNS's to see the amount of stock changing hands. This I believe to be an entirely understandably 'hedge' on behalf of the big institutional holders.

There is, however, no indication that any of these big shareholders have agreed to 'accept' the offer in respect of their remaining holdings (see L&G / Royal London in penultimate para of article above). Whether they will or not remains to be seen. One of the other articles I have read suggests that 30% is the maximum %age of a company which can be brought on the open market: thus, Alere now need some big acceptances b/w now and Oct 10.

God alone knows why this offer transpired so late in the day.

But Alere had 10% fairly early in all this. They've purchased another 20% so since the offer was confirmed, thus have only covered 50% of the distance. Still plenty of scope for the offer to fail IMO.....

The bigger issue now is whether the offer fails - and no counter offer materialises - in which case the share price will fall, or whether a 3rd party will put in a bigger offer, in which case happy days. Time, I suppose, will tell

Good luck!
Edgar3

[slaterlpj] 02/10/2011 08:24

I wonder. Alere are pretty bold to say they have almost 30% if in fact that isn't quite true.

As I understood it, the 29.9% they quoted were irrevocable. I hope you're right and that some of it can be taken back.

If so, then even more ASD should start to make much more noise about a 2nd bidder waiting in the wings, to pick up ASD at a better price when the Alere bid fails. ----- If there actually is another bidder that is. It could all be bluff.

It's still a poker game, and ASD aint playing their hand as well as Alere it seems to me.

[jpjp100] 02/10/2011 07:59

its not over yet slaterpj

acceptances can be withdrawn and 29.9 is not 50

[scobiebreasley] 01/10/2011 12:07

Suitor Alere tightens grip on Axis-Shield, taking 30% stake

Published Date: 01 October 2011
By PETER RANSCOMBE

AMERICAN life sciences giant Alere appeared to gain the upper hand yesterday in its takeover battle for Dundee-based medical testing kit maker Axis-Shield after tripling its stake in the company to 30 per cent.
In a flurry of stock market announcements, the Massachusetts- based firm revealed it had increased its holding from 11 per cent to 22 per cent before the total rose again to 29.9 per cent.

Axis-Shield hit back, revealing it had been in lengthy talks with a "third-party" that had been interested in mounting a counter- bid to Alere's hostile 460p-a-share offer, which valued the firm at £230 million.

The Scottish company said the potential competing offer "could have delivered significantly higher value" for investors.

But the third party had been unable to assemble a formal offer before yesterday's deadline - Day 50 in the takeover tussle - by which rival suitors must put their bids on the table under new Takeover Panel rules introduced last month.

Instead, Axis-Shield said the potential suitor - whose name it refused to release - had "reserved its rights" to make an offer if Alere's bid fails or is withdrawn.

Ian Gilham, Axis-Shield's chief executive, told The Scotsman: "It's obviously disappointing to see some of the big shareholders selling some of their shares but I would highlight that it's only part of their stakes - I think there's some hedging of bets going on there.

"Our recommendation remains that 460p doesn't offer good value to shareholders. Alere is making a highly opportunistic offer in order to try and acquire Axis-Shield on the cheap."

Shareholders in Axis-Shield have until 10 October to decide whether they will sell their stakes to Alere. The stock closed up 1.6 per cent or 7.13p last night at 455.5p, having hit 470p earlier in the session. Michael King, an analyst at Nomura, said it now looked more likely Alere would reach its target of buying 50 per cent of Axis-Shield's shares, but that it was not yet "game over".

He added: "There are still ten days to go so there's still plenty of time. It all now depends on what other big shareholders will do, so hopefully things will become clearer next week."

Numis analyst Charles Weston, another long-term Axis-Shield watcher, agreed Alere now had the upper hand.

He said: "It's a shame the third party and Axis-Shield didn't make the potential approach public sooner by a day or two. The longer-term shareholders may have made a different choice about selling if they'd known about the third party."

Much of Alere's stake-building took place during Thursday's trading, before yesterday's statement from Axis-Shield revealing news of the third party's interest.

Mark Niznik, a fund manager at Edinburgh-based Artemis and a supporter of Axis-Shield's board's stance over Alere's offer price, said: "I still think Alere is getting Axis-Shield on the cheap. I wanted to hold out for a higher price but it looks like other investors got nervous with the turmoil in the stock market."

Legal & General, Axis-Shield's second-biggest investor after Alere, sold 158,100 shares at the offer price, taking its holding down to 4.5 million shares or 9.1 per cent of the firm, while Royal London parted with 382,250 shares at the same price, leaving it with 320,357. Some institutions sold their entire holdings, with Canada Life parting with 600,000 shares and Variopartners dumping a million shares.

So-called "arbitrage" funds - which take advantage of price differences in markets in order to make money - unwound long positions on their contracts-for-difference. First Eagle off-loaded 1.2 million shares and Healthcor jettisoned 848,665.