Avisen Share Discussion Threads

[stodgy88] 28/7/2011 22:07

tsmith2 -regarding EBITDA and current trading mentioned in your posts,where does this information originate from -just curious ,hope you dont mind me inquiring-cheers

[tsmith2] 28/7/2011 20:17

spcecks - have you spoken to the company/dirs?

[spcecks] 28/7/2011 15:59

tsmith Also think these will be a lot higher at calender year end.

[tsmith2] 28/7/2011 12:43

sticking my neck out - calender year end target 10p, I suspect will be there well before then :)

[tsmith2] 28/7/2011 08:40

think some are missing the point..

they're trading more than profitably (EBITDA) in the current year..and winning work at quite an impressive rate.

The poorly worded results don't help.

last year was a expected to be a write off and the management team have as most do take a kitchen sink approach. just cast your eyes back to the board room fall out..

AGM on the 8th - wouldn't surprise me if we had a TU.

broker notes, director buying, more contract wins..

[estienne] 28/7/2011 07:53

Not only are they his clients but his fund owns a substantial share holding. He must have known that the results would be poor and that the share price would suffer. However, he still kept telling subscribers to his web site to buy without any consideration for their losses.

[colva] 27/7/2011 17:56

I've reduced my holding considerably today - my average buying price was 5.9p so i didn't take as big a hit as some - TW has been pushing this and made out that he was close to the management , either they misled him or he misled us.

NOT HAPPY .

[cammy3] 27/7/2011 16:05

Spot on fgump - £6m of cash and reducing based on continuing trade. The disposal was a "just in time" disposal as the tank was empty by the look of things. Now they need a "just in time" acquisition to buy revenue. Don't worry though - these guys know how to do it

[fgump] 27/7/2011 16:01

TW should check the content of his Marlborough Lights packet. £7.5m revenue and £1.5m profit!! This from a continuing business that had revenue of £900k in the second half of the year just gone...Read the facts. Every forecast has been jam tomorrow, jam tomorrow. In the meantime the only thing that is happening is our cash is burning...Interesting that TW now says net cash at the end of this year of £6m. What happened to the £10-£12m.

[oregano] 27/7/2011 15:54

has this £750k number been confirmed from sources aside from TW?

At the end of the day Avisen is a client of T1ps, so T1ps are hardly likely to say nasty things about them. and TW has no credibility in this share.

director buying, or lack of it, will speak volumes.

[cammy3] 27/7/2011 15:54

i'm almost out tsmith - thanks for the advice. Amazing you know how the co is trading !!

Good luck with - "cheapest share on AIM"

[cammy3] 27/7/2011 15:54

i'm almost out tsmith - thanks for the advice. Amazing you know how the co is trading !!

Good luck with - "cheapest share on AIM"

[stodgy88] 27/7/2011 15:31

i,ll admit it.im in this through TW ,and he makes everything sound so easy,double your money bla bla bla,not sure to stick or twist,bought at average of 7P ,so not as unlucky as some.

[cammy3] 27/7/2011 15:19

No need to slag anyone off - the numbers are poor and that's the hard facts. We've got c2m of revenue going forward and a cash burn until yet another acquisition is on board. We have double the amount of shares in issue from the time I jumped on at 15p and a management team that have never delivered a profit in the co history regardless of what assets they've had. I'm nearly out gents but badly burnt. good luck to all and sorry this hasn't worked out. Ian Smith didn't do badly offloading at 4p 12 months ago and making better use of his time and money. I feel robbed

[stodgy88] 27/7/2011 14:53

slag him off ,but all tips given on his website winners and losers = +53%,a bit better than my average.

[solarno lopez] 27/7/2011 14:44

But its TW !!

[orado] 27/7/2011 14:37

It really amazes me why anybody listens to anything TW says.

[estienne] 27/7/2011 14:32

I remember TW saying the same thing last year. About how it will double in 12 months.

[stodgy88] 27/7/2011 14:24

TW not updated yet on T1ps,must be choosing his words carefully.

[tsmith2] 27/7/2011 13:52

what odds of a poorly worded RNS to allow dirs to buy cheap..!

[stodgy88] 27/7/2011 13:16

thanks carterdl.

[solarno lopez] 27/7/2011 13:09

kitchen sink job me thinks

[carterdl] 27/7/2011 13:05

Stodgy, Tom has commented on JPJ as follows:

Avisen - wood/trees/value
July 27, 2011


Since our funds own shed loads of Avisen I read its final results statement carefully today. I am sure it ticks all the regulatory boxes but as a guide to where the company is now I could not see the wood for the trees. It needed 3 cups of coffee, 2 Marlboro lights and a good company chat before I had any idea what was going on. But at the end of that process it is clear the shares are, at 5.75p, dirt cheap. Here is why:

Last year is a mess with writedowns, disposals etc muddying the waters. So what about the current year to January 31st 2012. Net cash at the year end will be c£6 million ( cautious view). The company seems to have had a profitable first half and will, I reckon generate full year sales of £7.5 million and EBITDA of £1.5 million. Next year (with both core Avisen and Storage Fuson booking new clients all the time and that big Unilever win announced the other day) I am looking for £10 million and £2.5 million with year end net cash of £7.5 million.

Value? A growth stock should be on perhaps 10 times EBITDA + net cash. That gives me a one year target of £32.5 million or 14.5p per share. As such - at 5.75p - with a value of £12.8 million ( ie on next year net cash + 2 times EBITDA) the shares are a steal.