Avingtrans Share Discussion Threads

[dgwinterbottom] 07/5/2015 19:56

Roger - many thanks for that very interesting. It reinforces my comment made in my AGM report in November:-
"Looking to Energy & Medical Division the Board for see that in the medium future time span the nuclear decommissioning programme at Sellafield & Magnox will rise considerably as low to medium nuclear waste will need “re-packaging” and Maloney has the experience and background to undertake such work that not many have"

[rogerrail] 07/5/2015 16:59

I was aware of AVG Metalcraft divisions plan to increase turnover three fold but as with many of these ambitious management claims did not pay it much credence.

However having read the following article (page 8) and particularly the bit about the nuclear decomissioning work which will happen regardless of whether new plants are built in places such as Hinkley Point and Anglesey, I am a bit more optimistic about Metalcfrafts prospects, seems they have a lucrative niche:

[nw1234] 07/5/2015 15:48

RR. Thank you for the "spot". NW

[rogerrail] 07/5/2015 15:41

Unless this is old news ( which I doubt as it comes from two sources) it looks like Crown have recently been awarded some decent contracts for the M1 and M25





This news is somewhat under the radar with nothing on either of the company websites, although there were some positive comments in the last IMS of £2m of contracts booked in H1 ( to end Nov 14) so not sure if the above are additional to this figure.

If this carries on I would not be suprised if AVG offload Crown for a reasonable sum , whereas not so long ago it was worthless!

[dgwinterbottom] 14/4/2015 07:48

Creditable achievement given the oil/gas business climate:

[charo] 06/3/2015 15:41

Apologies closer to 4 months inventory

[dgwinterbottom] 06/3/2015 07:21

Charo - Could you give some more detail please

[charo] 05/3/2015 16:55

why more than 6months sales at cost in inventory.

[dgwinterbottom] 03/3/2015 12:47

......and he has been here a long time!!!!!!!!!!

[bookbroker] 03/3/2015 08:26

Always good to have Nigel Wray on a shareholder register, he ain't no teacake when it comes to value investments, and a long term holder, always offers support to management

[dgwinterbottom] 27/2/2015 14:12

Interesting comment [...]

[cisk] 25/2/2015 17:25

Must confess I sold some a while ago, will look to add more but tbh I'm not buying anything at the moment (apart from my monthly investment stocks).

Clearly he already has a significant holding, but £30k is not exactly small change and demonstrates some faith.

Hope to make the AGM later this year!

[dgwinterbottom] 25/2/2015 14:28

Hi Cisk - Nice to see you, yep as you say nothing new that was not already known other than how they are progressing with contingency plans. As I said quite a bit of this would have been done anyway but was probably brought forward due change in situation. The bit that caught my attention was that composites have created products that are a) IP sensitive b) have applications outside of aerospace now THAT could be really interesting!!
I am certain the share price drop back in November and further reduction today are certainly overdone and whether you view the Chairman's purchase today as merely support or genuine investment the price is certainly worth considering as a top up figure.
Now as in the past I cannot find anything of which to be critical with the BOD in terms of their actions.
Hope to see you at the AGM later in the year!!

[cisk] 25/2/2015 13:49

Just announced: Roger McDowell, Chairman, acquired a total of 30,000 Ordinary Shares in the Company at a price of 104.5 pence per share today

[cisk] 25/2/2015 13:44

Hi DGW, I agree with your comments, I don't think there is anything here much that is a surprise and the BOD have done a credible job given the circumstances.

There is still a lot of demand in aerospace, and the MRI business will come good eventually, so I see that there is a lot to like in the quality of the business. They need to continue integrating recent acquisitions and not to buy anything else at this stage, and of course keep a lid on costs.

Anyone who follows this sector might have seen the warnings by Rolls Royce last year as a precursor to trouble further down the supply chain - and here is the evidence.

Another of my aerospace holdings, GKN, were punished yesterday (and today) by the market for producing results not as good as expected. Personally I see these dips as opportunities - if you're happy to take a longer term view.

Same goes for the oil price - it would be a brave airline indeed to stop buying more fuel efficient planes due to the price of oil being at the current level.

[dgwinterbottom] 25/2/2015 10:38

Having attended the AGM and combining what was said with today’s results my thoughts FWIW are as follows:
Looking at the interim results published today it seems as though the group was hit with a “perfect storm” scenario. Firstly a reduction in demand by Rolls Royce in the aerospace side of the business and secondly a collapse of the oil price on the Metalcraft division that had high hopes for the future. The response to the storm clouds by the Board was both quick and decisive and whilst this year may show a hit to overall results one might expect progress thereafter.

The order book from Rolls Royce appears to have stabilised as their destocking would appear to have run its course and the site amalgamation of Derby to the recently acquired Swadlincote will probably bring the latter plant back into profitability as well as exiting unprofitable work that had been taken on prior to acquisition and which AVG were not prepared to continue with, as stated at the AGM.
The Composites division appears to have made good gains for the future, critically with IP opportunities, especially as the report states, with opportunities beyond aerospace, the recently appointed General Manager with entreprenerial approach should also help progress.

In terms of Metalcraft, the oil price collapse came at exactly the wrong time but the actions taken to mitigate the effects would appear to have been prudent in any event. It would appear the manufacturing side of the business did not require specialised manufacture so can be outsourced elsewhere whereas the value lies in the design and development team which are remaining in the existing locality thereby preserving the design and development knowledge skills. This can only help competitiveness for the future, perhaps this move was on the cards at acquisition but brought forward in the light of market events, however the depressed oil price could well prove to be an issue unless other markets can be acquired.
The slow progress at Metalcraft China due to slow Siemens rollout as revealed at the AGM now allows the group to look at other customers in this field that hitherto by agreement they were prevented from doing, and as GE are creating a Scanner manufacturing facility in China perhaps an opportunity may exist there for future business.
It is quite surprising that the Crown unit for so long the “ugly duckling” element of the group is now showing good progress better than for recent years.

Considering the recent turbulence, the figures for first half look reasonable not least a slight increase in the dividend and the one off expenditure for rationalisation should be contained within this financial year.

Comments welcome……;….

[puffintickler] 25/2/2015 10:08

Yes, bad news was out with the ts, this just confirms it, and looks good going forward imv. share price will not bounce on the news but should end the day break-even. All the work is still to do so full share price recovery will only come when results show it is justified.

[cisk] 25/2/2015 09:34

seems a bit of an over-reaction given this news was flagged?

They're taking action to reduce costs and the 'turbulence' in aerospace 1st half seems to have quietened down from what they say - and at least the road signs business is turning around.

[toffeeman] 25/2/2015 09:05

Been v quiet here - not good news this am

[dgwinterbottom] 27/11/2014 07:12

This willdo no harm..........

[apad] 25/11/2014 18:04

FWIW
TCN said that there was no profit in RR's new contract at a time when RR were being criticised for ROCE cf GE.
Also AVG has a bit of a ragbag of companies (in the sense that composites don't go with pipe bending, for example).
Also, I don't like AVG's directors (their background that is)
But what do I know - I chose TCN and missed out on AVG's rise.
TCN interims in a week's time - gulp.
GLTA
apad