Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Avation LSE:AVAP London Ordinary Share GB00B196F554 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 212.50p 211.00p 214.00p 212.50p 212.00p 212.50p 13,167 13:06:31
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Transportation 72.3 16.3 27.8 7.7 130.54

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Date Time Title Posts
20/11/201710:53Avation - Fly to Let2,107
25/1/201312:03Avation traded on Plus753
01/10/201018:35Flying High?-

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Avation (AVAP) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
20/11/2017
08:20
Avation Daily Update: Avation is listed in the Industrial Transportation sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AVAP. The last closing price for Avation was 212.50p.
Avation has a 4 week average price of 203p and a 12 week average price of 203p.
The 1 year high share price is 253p while the 1 year low share price is currently 183p.
There are currently 61,428,246 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 51,483 shares. The market capitalisation of Avation is £130,535,022.75.
11/9/2017
06:45
carcosa: One of the nice things about Avation is that it is very easy to work out lease revenue of the current and announced fleet changes. Those forecasts of which you refer to are a million miles away from expectations in my opinion. If Avation manages to get a twin-aisle seat into their fleet then the lease revenue will increase substantially; will have to wait and see on that one. Also there appears to be an exceptional gain likely from the Air Berlin A320 and potential gains from the sale of ATR production slots. Avation is not an aircraft operator; they are a leasing company. The airlines are the operator and hence take all the operational risk. As with any other leasing company they will sell the assets if they believe it is worth so doing. The 'nice' thing is that the can choose if and when to sell an aircraft; there is nothing really forcing them to sell an aircraft (although as the business grows am not so certain that statement would hold true) Most ATR leases are a 6+6 i,e, 6 years plus an option to extend a further 6 years. Some are on 10 year leases. The A321's are on a 12 year lease, expiring 2028. I would not be overly concerned with PE ratios for Avation. Share price, in my opinion for a leasing company, should be a reflection of NAV. Have a look at the investor presentation material on their website for further info. FWIW i estimate FY 2018 total revenues to be $101m without yet to be announced fleet changes.
08/9/2017
08:38
jamesjoel: Just listened to the interview on proactive investor and the finance director seems confident in massive growth going forward.Says the shares are undervalued compared to its peers but will rerate as the company keeps preforming.The share price reaction at the moment is some what surprising considering the companies potential.Profit taking or a tree shake? One to hold and add on any weakness and reinvest and compound the dividend I think!
07/9/2017
07:03
carcosa: Today, Avation released it's FY prelims. https://www.investegate.co.uk/avation-plc--avap-/rns/preliminary-unaudited-financial-results-for-2017/201709070705030791Q/ Overall the ATR aircraft are once again selling like hotcakes around the world and production slots are likely at a premium. Avation currently holds a number of production slots values in excess of $3m but quite possibly worth a tad more. Demand for the ATR aircraft has resulted potential and meaningful gains on aircraft sales against their deprecitation book value. As Avation tend not to hold on to old aircraft the industry depreciation rate will continue to hide the hidden value in their ATR portfolio. This past year Avation were approached by several entities wanting to buy their ATR fleet at a substantial premium over book. Whilst as first glance this sounds an excellent outcome, in practice it would have resulted in the company effectivly going back to 'sqaure one'. A compromise of selling a portion of the fleet was made resulting in a gain of $5.3m or I estimate about 5% over book value; lower than I initially thought at the time of the sale. Their headline numbers showed: NB: Items in brackets are (Consensus Forecasts) [My forecasts] Lease Revenue up 32% at $94.2 million ($94m) [$92.8m]; Operating Profit grew 32% to $60.2 million; [$56.1] Profit before taxation increased by 18% to $21.4 million ($19.7m) [$24.3m] Total profit after tax increased 16% to $21.3 million; (19.7m) [$21.9m] Operating cash flows increased 20% to $63.0 million; Dividend per share increased by 85% to 6.00 US cents; and Earnings per share ("EPS") increased by 6% to 36.3 US cents.($0.32) [$0.36] Other areas of improvement include a lower LTV of 72% and an upgrade in the credit rating. Sitting on a hefty cash pile following the ATR sales too Of particular interest was their annoucement that they would now start to consider wide-bodied aircraft to be added to the fleet. Thi sis a new development and something that they have shied away from in the past. It suggests that narrowbodied aircraft valuations are high and, although potentially higher risk perhaps the returns from widebodied aircraft are more attactive now. Certainly lease income form one widebodies aircraft, if less that 8 years old, is a multiple of that obtainable from ATR's and indeed narrow-bodied jet aircraft. Interesting to note that for the first time Avation have not split out asset valuations between jet and turboprop aircraft (or may have to wait for the annual report for that detail). The 'real' measure for share price valuation is the book value/share which stands at $3.21/share Current share price in $ terms is ~246p which is marginally below yesterdays closing price. However a fair view is that the share price should be a multiple of the book value. Going forward however, the loss of lease revenue from the now sold 6 ATR's is going to substantially decrease lease revenue and aircraft asset valuatoin next year. However it is in the nature of their business to aquire further aircraft and if they announce additions to the fleet within the next three months then I am comfortable with the current share price. Questions: Previous years Avation have shied away from wide-bodied aircraft entering the fleet. In today's prelims there is an indication that they are considering this aircraft type now. Why the change of heart? (narrow bodied valuations too high?) Why is the tax charge so low? Is this a timing issue?
16/8/2017
10:16
trytotakeiteasy: Share price seems a bit weak. Any exposure to Air Berlin?
20/7/2017
05:47
carcosa: It took them nearly 9 months to place those last 3 ATR's; which is a bit surprising. I also notde they were non-specific regarding the lease length of those latest aircraft; unlike prior announcements. Also the implication is that they are non-revenue earning between factory delivery to AVAP and delivery to the lessee. Also they have had some older narrow bodied aircraft for sale for a long time now with no progress being made; although the recent extention/new customer of A320/MSN1607 was welcome news although I note they did not make mention of the contingency payment related to that aircraft at the end of its current lease. Looking ahead to FY 2018 the current fleet would result in about a $5m shortfall in revenue compared to this year's expectation with a substantial reduction in profits. As things stand at the moment P/NTAV is around 1.0 which some would consider is about right. However between now and June 2018 a lot has to happen to support the share price and that is most likely to be more jet aircraft to up the NAV. Am a bit disappointed that has yet to happen because the last six months or so have been a bit slow; I was hoping once the ATR sale had completed a raft of announcements would be forthcoming but this has not happened. With LIBOR rates creeping up what they do now can have significant implications for re-leasing of aircraft in years to come. The other item that may assist the share price is an upward revaluation of the current ATR fleet (assuming no change to the Airbus fleet). There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that this is a possibility. Then, if they ever get rid of the older Airbus aircraft above book value that could dramatically positively affect the balance sheet; but I really wouldn't hold out much hope of that happening anytime soon or if it did the premium might actually be negative/small. Right now I feel the share price reflects the value of the company but given the results (and why do they have to be issued so late after closing the books??) are due I'm inclined to wait-and-see what they say about the future before considering selling my shares (first bought 2013) Basically, business as usual.
17/2/2017
07:25
carcosa: If I may... As time has gone on it seems apparent to me that their concern is that they wish to stay in the narrowbody market but valuations are very high now and the idea of buying ready made replacement fleets is not as easy as they initially thought. Therefore the loss of revenue and profits over the years it will take them to increase the fleet size again means that a massive premium would be required on the fleet sale. Also, with 97% of their loans at fixed rates that alone is a powerful argument to keep things as they are in a rising interest rate environment (next 5 years). Given the ATR fleet growth is going to be pedestrian and the yields on the jet fleet are relatively smaller then perhaps it is wise to keep the ATR fleet unless someone came up with a huge premium. Given that half the company assets are up for sale then Avation were duty bound to seek out other potential investors; part of good corporate governance; but their heart is really not in it IMO. However they are into aircraft sales and selling a few ATR's, perhaps the older -500 series is in line with normal trading. So it's all good for the company and the business but given the share price appreciation when the ATR sale was first announced I am certain there will be a meaningful fall in the share price if they announce the fleet sale is not going to happen; perhaps mitigated if at the same time they have secured sales on only part of the ATR fleet. As a consequence I sold about a third of my holding yesterday. However long term I'll probably be a buyer following the announcement because plugging various numbers into my finance model shows that full year profits are going to be good and I believe in this company over the long term having first invested in 2013 Carcosa
02/2/2017
13:56
ragehammer: The price seems to be ebbing away with no update on progress on the ATR deal. It's now two and a half months since the last update, the AGM Statement on 15 November when they advised that the "timing for the receipt of proposals is before the end of the calendar year". I presume that the lack of news means that a deal is still being negotiated, but the share price movement of the last few days suggests pessimism.
01/11/2016
11:14
carcosa: The Vietjet sale was in the works prior to the expression of interest for the ATR fleet. As I understand it there are two further Vietjet A321's due for delivery this year although, personally, I doubt Airbus will be able to deliver the second one in time (although root cause of that might be a VietJet's door. AVAP have indicated that a significant premium to book value for the ATR's would have to be obtained thereby providing a significant windfall for shareholders. I would be more interested to hear from them how quickly they can redeploy that cash and re-grow the fleet. I estimate P/NTAV is about 0.6. With the A321 sale I reckon all told an EPS of 16p, giving a P/E of 5.4. Of course if the ATR fleet is sold before year end then the EPS will be outrageous but all down to exceptionals. May also offer a sniff of interest in terms of a takeover if the company is sitting on a large cash pile, a bunch of aircraft with a market value well above book value. I do think if AVAP was listed in the US the share price would be significantly higher...
09/9/2016
05:39
carcosa: Well, you have to ask yourself why WH Ireland are so wrong. Stiffel were a lot better; but still wrong albeit pretty much bang on with leasing business. Broker notes are rarely reliable when it comes the numbers but their commentary is useful in picking up details. For the last two years my model has been reasonably accurate in terms of leasing profitability. As of today we know there are unlikely to be future ATR deliveries over the next year and we know how many more Airbus aircraft are contracted. Although I go into excessive detail on my own spreadsheet it does not take a great deal of work to use your own research to develop your own finance model. For all companies that I am a shareholder of I have my own targets but share price is never one of those targets. Companies should concentrate on the business and if they are meeting my various targets then I'm happy. Broker targets are almost be definition lies! As for share price, then I don't believe companies should pay too much attention to it. When they do it seems to me they invariably screw things up. That's for investors to play with. On any appropriate metric Avation is under valued in my opinion which is why I buy shares in them. But each to their own; if you have a system that works for you then stick with it. Meanwhile.. what's happened to A321 MSN 1921 ?
31/7/2016
15:43
carcosa: jamesjoel: IMO I would not anticipate anything dramatic for quite a while. Partly due to the fact that aircraft leasing companies, especially small ones like AVAP are not well understood when listed in London, unlike their American listed counterparts. If AVAP gain no more orders other than those previously announced then the A320's contributions will make H1 2017 and full year 2017 a magnitude or order better in terms of assets and profits. Lease revenue of a A320 is almost 3 times that of a ATR72. It's just that this years' numbers are lacklustre in comparison to 2015 due to the lack of new A320 contributions and partly the cost of the GMTN notes. In the real world AVAP can be expected to expand their aircraft portfolio over and above current orders. The nice thing about aircraft leasing companies, especially AVAP, is that it's quite easy to construct your own spreadsheet and determine the likely revenues from each aircraft, asset valuation etc based on historical AVAP reports and general aircraft leasing reports to establish a baseline growth of revenue and NAV's. (The only 'iffy' bit is when AVAP sell an old aircraft and determining the likely value they got for it) Depending on how the company want to 'spin' this years results we should get a modest shareprice improvement (~5%) or, if they really stress the 'future', a reasonable price hike (~10%). Over the last 18 months I have been buying on the 'dips'. However, for me, if in 18 months from now the share price has not gone up by at least 50% I shall be disappointed, to say the least because of the explosive growth I expect.
Avation share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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