Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Avation LSE:AVAP London Ordinary Share GB00B196F554 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 151.50p 150.00p 153.00p 151.50p 151.50p 151.50p 7,019 08:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Transportation 55.9 13.6 25.8 5.4 89.28

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Date Time Title Posts
21/10/201610:26Avation - Fly to Let1,963
25/1/201312:03Avation traded on Plus753
01/10/201019:35Flying High?-

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Avation (AVAP) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
21/10/2016 12:47:04151.501,0001,515.00O
21/10/2016 12:29:25151.503,9325,956.98O
21/10/2016 11:51:59151.651,4052,130.68O
21/10/2016 10:37:47151.50320484.80O
21/10/2016 10:34:00151.50362548.43O
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Avation (AVAP) Top Chat Posts

Avation Daily Update: Avation is listed in the Industrial Transportation sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AVAP. The last closing price for Avation was 151.50p.
Avation has a 4 week average price of 155.90p and a 12 week average price of 149.35p.
The 1 year high share price is 166p while the 1 year low share price is currently 126.50p.
There are currently 58,928,336 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 18,753 shares. The market capitalisation of Avation is £89,276,429.04.
carcosa: Vietjet's latest A321-211SL, VN-A684 (MSN 7342) had its first factory flight last Wednesday. Deliveries are typically 7-10 days after first flight assuming no major snags. For some reason the share price often goes up when an aircraft is delivered...
harrogate: Carcosa - how are you going to model the fact that the have the stated intention to trade midlife - old aircraft and there will be an inevitable reduction in lease revenue and an increase in trading profits which might as we have seen this year increase EPS but none of us values as highly and seems short term? Also while I agree that the board should focus on the business and not the share price there are some tings they need to do beyond the core leasing business to make sure that the share price does as well as I should - the call yesterday I thought was a shambles and the answers to much of the detailed questioning vague and inconsistent. If you listened do you know who the maon finance guy is at that the Company?
carcosa: Well, you have to ask yourself why WH Ireland are so wrong. Stiffel were a lot better; but still wrong albeit pretty much bang on with leasing business. Broker notes are rarely reliable when it comes the numbers but their commentary is useful in picking up details. For the last two years my model has been reasonably accurate in terms of leasing profitability. As of today we know there are unlikely to be future ATR deliveries over the next year and we know how many more Airbus aircraft are contracted. Although I go into excessive detail on my own spreadsheet it does not take a great deal of work to use your own research to develop your own finance model. For all companies that I am a shareholder of I have my own targets but share price is never one of those targets. Companies should concentrate on the business and if they are meeting my various targets then I'm happy. Broker targets are almost be definition lies! As for share price, then I don't believe companies should pay too much attention to it. When they do it seems to me they invariably screw things up. That's for investors to play with. On any appropriate metric Avation is under valued in my opinion which is why I buy shares in them. But each to their own; if you have a system that works for you then stick with it. Meanwhile.. what's happened to A321 MSN 1921 ?
harrogate: While I agree with much of what you say a few points need making The downgraded EPS for 2017 is now 26p down from 30p - WHI yesterday so a current PE of around 6. The reduction in the 2016 number ( once trading gains are stripped out ) is largely down to the costs of the bond note deployment delay Jeff may well be highly paid ( that is a matter of judgement ) but the increase in his salary over the years can't seriously be seen as a reason the profit underperformance? I also disagree that at the size they are it is an easy business to forecast - it is very lumpy and timings make a massive difference. Having said that they have underperformed as the static share price for the last 2 years shows.
ragehammer: AVAP results look pretty strong as expected, actual EPS of 34.2c compared to 32c in the recent trading update (must have found a few pennies down the back of the sofa). The trading profit seems to have come from selling two owned aircraft onto finance leases and they've also revalued the remaining fleet by $29m including impairing one aircraft by $0.9m. The revaluation doesn't go through profit or EPS but straight to reserves. Div up marginally. As ever the run rate of aircraft delivered late in the year will be fully shown in next year's numbers so less the impact of selling mid-life aircraft revenue and profit should continue to grow. With the revaluation and profit, book value per share has increased dramatically to $3.11 per share or £2.32 so even with the recent share price increase, the discount to NAV is around 30%.
harrogate: This is a perfect example of why the share price is where it is - lack of clarity. Surely the sale of an ATR production slot can't be $3m + which the missing piece of the jigsaw needs to be
harrogate: There is no doubt over the years that AVAP have disappointed on EPS a few times. At the size they are and with the planes so expensive to bring on fee wise and funding wise a few delays here and there can have a massive impact on earnings. And as you say the recent upfront bond costs were significant. I think as we grow this will continue but is part of the reason we are at the same share price level of 2 years ago. Having said that I have seen no significant pull back in forecasts for 2017 - 30p is still the number which is a PE of under 5. The recent Viajet deals have all been done on schedule. The key unknown for me is the state of the Virgin Australia deal which I think has ground to a halt as they reduce the ATRs they want. Also we keep flagging that we have one of the best ATR order and purchase commitment books but we don't seem to be finding any customers for them. news in that area would be encouraging too.
carcosa: jamesjoel: IMO I would not anticipate anything dramatic for quite a while. Partly due to the fact that aircraft leasing companies, especially small ones like AVAP are not well understood when listed in London, unlike their American listed counterparts. If AVAP gain no more orders other than those previously announced then the A320's contributions will make H1 2017 and full year 2017 a magnitude or order better in terms of assets and profits. Lease revenue of a A320 is almost 3 times that of a ATR72. It's just that this years' numbers are lacklustre in comparison to 2015 due to the lack of new A320 contributions and partly the cost of the GMTN notes. In the real world AVAP can be expected to expand their aircraft portfolio over and above current orders. The nice thing about aircraft leasing companies, especially AVAP, is that it's quite easy to construct your own spreadsheet and determine the likely revenues from each aircraft, asset valuation etc based on historical AVAP reports and general aircraft leasing reports to establish a baseline growth of revenue and NAV's. (The only 'iffy' bit is when AVAP sell an old aircraft and determining the likely value they got for it) Depending on how the company want to 'spin' this years results we should get a modest shareprice improvement (~5%) or, if they really stress the 'future', a reasonable price hike (~10%). Over the last 18 months I have been buying on the 'dips'. However, for me, if in 18 months from now the share price has not gone up by at least 50% I shall be disappointed, to say the least because of the explosive growth I expect.
quepassa: Can't put my finger on it but those with memories long enough to remember one-time world-beating Guinness Peat Aviation plc will recall that all did not end happily. Whilst I am not suggesting in any way that there is anything necessarily negative about the Avation plc story and business, its market share price over the last year has not kept up with events. I have been wondering why. It was therefore both enlightening and somewhat interesting to read the absolutely fascinating " Short View" column in today's FT on the first page of the Companies & Markets section on p15 by esteemed reporter, Miles Johnson The article is about current dynamics in the aircraft leasing market and argues that, counter-intuitively, the low oil prices make older aircraft cheaper to run than new aircraft citing an example where Delta had sourced a used 777 for less than $8m in December compared with a factory fresh price of more than $250m. The article ends with the following salutary paragraph, followed by a graph headed "Emerging airline stocks underperform". The final paragraph is:- " All of this is cause for concern for holders of the leasing companies' debt and shares. While secured, the leasing debt is only as secure as the creditworthiness of the airlines that use the planes, and the second-hand value of those planes. Shares in emerging market airlines, the main buyers of new planes, have tanked over the past year. But leasing companies' debt is still trading at par value. One aspect of this relationship will have to budge soon". No doubt observers will stick their hands in the air and correctly say that Avation lease speciality aircraft which are in great demand and have good resale value with strong lease covenants. However, one cannot ignore the share price performance of certain airlines over the past year, nor the anomaly where older aircraft appear to be very cheap to run as a result of their low second-hand values. For me, one to watch from the sidelines pro-tem. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
glasshalfull: Courtesy to declare that I bought back in here on Monday following further significant Director buys. I still have misgivings over management (see CLA's shareholder treatment) but hard to ignore the inherent value here. WH Ireland have issued commentary today on their pick of 2016 & no surprise to see AVAP mentioned. Avation - A transformational year ahead Price 137p Target price 260p Avation is a fully quoted lessor of commercial passenger aircraft to a number of large airlines. Clearly visible in 2016 is the potential for a seminal year for the group. We expect the proceeds from the May 2016 $100m bond issue to have been fully utilised by the end of June, taking Avations fleet to over 40 aircraft across 12 airlines globally and leading to an increase in earnings for the year to June 2017 of almost 60%. With the shares trading at a significant discount to other international quoted aircraft leasing businesses, we see considerable upside in the share price in 2016 as investors increasingly focus on secured FY 2017E revenue and profitability. Of the internationally quoted lessors, Avation is currently the most attractively priced in our view. We maintain our Buy stance and 260p share price target based on a basket of five valuation metrics. Kind regards, GHF
Avation share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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