Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Avation LSE:AVAP London Ordinary Share GB00B196F554 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 221.00p 218.00p 224.00p 221.00p 221.00p 221.00p 17,508 08:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Transportation 55.9 13.6 25.8 8.2 134.97

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Date Time Title Posts
02/6/201716:57Avation - Fly to Let2,041
25/1/201312:03Avation traded on Plus753
01/10/201019:35Flying High?-

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Avation (AVAP) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2017-06-27 15:06:26220.002,5005,500.00O
2017-06-27 15:06:09219.006,25013,687.50O
2017-06-27 15:05:02219.006,95015,220.50O
2017-06-27 08:33:09220.009602,112.00O
2017-06-27 07:02:34223.00448999.04O
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Avation (AVAP) Top Chat Posts

Avation Daily Update: Avation is listed in the Industrial Transportation sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AVAP. The last closing price for Avation was 221p.
Avation has a 4 week average price of 207.50p and a 12 week average price of 191p.
The 1 year high share price is 233.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 134.50p.
There are currently 61,071,246 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 6,981 shares. The market capitalisation of Avation is £134,967,453.66.
carcosa: If I may... As time has gone on it seems apparent to me that their concern is that they wish to stay in the narrowbody market but valuations are very high now and the idea of buying ready made replacement fleets is not as easy as they initially thought. Therefore the loss of revenue and profits over the years it will take them to increase the fleet size again means that a massive premium would be required on the fleet sale. Also, with 97% of their loans at fixed rates that alone is a powerful argument to keep things as they are in a rising interest rate environment (next 5 years). Given the ATR fleet growth is going to be pedestrian and the yields on the jet fleet are relatively smaller then perhaps it is wise to keep the ATR fleet unless someone came up with a huge premium. Given that half the company assets are up for sale then Avation were duty bound to seek out other potential investors; part of good corporate governance; but their heart is really not in it IMO. However they are into aircraft sales and selling a few ATR's, perhaps the older -500 series is in line with normal trading. So it's all good for the company and the business but given the share price appreciation when the ATR sale was first announced I am certain there will be a meaningful fall in the share price if they announce the fleet sale is not going to happen; perhaps mitigated if at the same time they have secured sales on only part of the ATR fleet. As a consequence I sold about a third of my holding yesterday. However long term I'll probably be a buyer following the announcement because plugging various numbers into my finance model shows that full year profits are going to be good and I believe in this company over the long term having first invested in 2013 Carcosa
ragehammer: The price seems to be ebbing away with no update on progress on the ATR deal. It's now two and a half months since the last update, the AGM Statement on 15 November when they advised that the "timing for the receipt of proposals is before the end of the calendar year". I presume that the lack of news means that a deal is still being negotiated, but the share price movement of the last few days suggests pessimism.
carcosa: The Vietjet sale was in the works prior to the expression of interest for the ATR fleet. As I understand it there are two further Vietjet A321's due for delivery this year although, personally, I doubt Airbus will be able to deliver the second one in time (although root cause of that might be a VietJet's door. AVAP have indicated that a significant premium to book value for the ATR's would have to be obtained thereby providing a significant windfall for shareholders. I would be more interested to hear from them how quickly they can redeploy that cash and re-grow the fleet. I estimate P/NTAV is about 0.6. With the A321 sale I reckon all told an EPS of 16p, giving a P/E of 5.4. Of course if the ATR fleet is sold before year end then the EPS will be outrageous but all down to exceptionals. May also offer a sniff of interest in terms of a takeover if the company is sitting on a large cash pile, a bunch of aircraft with a market value well above book value. I do think if AVAP was listed in the US the share price would be significantly higher...
dhlindy1: Today's RNS announcing a sale on delivery only adds fuel to the argument for a strong upside to the share price
catsick: To sell half the fleet and the half with the highest yields will need a decent bid above book value I would think that would need to be at least 15 mio usd , with the gbp at 1.22 i see nav around 2.77 gbp per share this deal could push up to 3 pounds, they can then buy a bunch of shares back and a few more a321 should give a huge boost to the share price, of course no firm deal yet but shows there is value in the book and the shares still trade very cheap
harrogate: Carcosa - how are you going to model the fact that the have the stated intention to trade midlife - old aircraft and there will be an inevitable reduction in lease revenue and an increase in trading profits which might as we have seen this year increase EPS but none of us values as highly and seems short term? Also while I agree that the board should focus on the business and not the share price there are some tings they need to do beyond the core leasing business to make sure that the share price does as well as I should - the call yesterday I thought was a shambles and the answers to much of the detailed questioning vague and inconsistent. If you listened do you know who the maon finance guy is at that the Company?
carcosa: Well, you have to ask yourself why WH Ireland are so wrong. Stiffel were a lot better; but still wrong albeit pretty much bang on with leasing business. Broker notes are rarely reliable when it comes the numbers but their commentary is useful in picking up details. For the last two years my model has been reasonably accurate in terms of leasing profitability. As of today we know there are unlikely to be future ATR deliveries over the next year and we know how many more Airbus aircraft are contracted. Although I go into excessive detail on my own spreadsheet it does not take a great deal of work to use your own research to develop your own finance model. For all companies that I am a shareholder of I have my own targets but share price is never one of those targets. Companies should concentrate on the business and if they are meeting my various targets then I'm happy. Broker targets are almost be definition lies! As for share price, then I don't believe companies should pay too much attention to it. When they do it seems to me they invariably screw things up. That's for investors to play with. On any appropriate metric Avation is under valued in my opinion which is why I buy shares in them. But each to their own; if you have a system that works for you then stick with it. Meanwhile.. what's happened to A321 MSN 1921 ?
ragehammer: AVAP results look pretty strong as expected, actual EPS of 34.2c compared to 32c in the recent trading update (must have found a few pennies down the back of the sofa). The trading profit seems to have come from selling two owned aircraft onto finance leases and they've also revalued the remaining fleet by $29m including impairing one aircraft by $0.9m. The revaluation doesn't go through profit or EPS but straight to reserves. Div up marginally. As ever the run rate of aircraft delivered late in the year will be fully shown in next year's numbers so less the impact of selling mid-life aircraft revenue and profit should continue to grow. With the revaluation and profit, book value per share has increased dramatically to $3.11 per share or £2.32 so even with the recent share price increase, the discount to NAV is around 30%.
carcosa: jamesjoel: IMO I would not anticipate anything dramatic for quite a while. Partly due to the fact that aircraft leasing companies, especially small ones like AVAP are not well understood when listed in London, unlike their American listed counterparts. If AVAP gain no more orders other than those previously announced then the A320's contributions will make H1 2017 and full year 2017 a magnitude or order better in terms of assets and profits. Lease revenue of a A320 is almost 3 times that of a ATR72. It's just that this years' numbers are lacklustre in comparison to 2015 due to the lack of new A320 contributions and partly the cost of the GMTN notes. In the real world AVAP can be expected to expand their aircraft portfolio over and above current orders. The nice thing about aircraft leasing companies, especially AVAP, is that it's quite easy to construct your own spreadsheet and determine the likely revenues from each aircraft, asset valuation etc based on historical AVAP reports and general aircraft leasing reports to establish a baseline growth of revenue and NAV's. (The only 'iffy' bit is when AVAP sell an old aircraft and determining the likely value they got for it) Depending on how the company want to 'spin' this years results we should get a modest shareprice improvement (~5%) or, if they really stress the 'future', a reasonable price hike (~10%). Over the last 18 months I have been buying on the 'dips'. However, for me, if in 18 months from now the share price has not gone up by at least 50% I shall be disappointed, to say the least because of the explosive growth I expect.
quepassa: Can't put my finger on it but those with memories long enough to remember one-time world-beating Guinness Peat Aviation plc will recall that all did not end happily. Whilst I am not suggesting in any way that there is anything necessarily negative about the Avation plc story and business, its market share price over the last year has not kept up with events. I have been wondering why. It was therefore both enlightening and somewhat interesting to read the absolutely fascinating " Short View" column in today's FT on the first page of the Companies & Markets section on p15 by esteemed reporter, Miles Johnson The article is about current dynamics in the aircraft leasing market and argues that, counter-intuitively, the low oil prices make older aircraft cheaper to run than new aircraft citing an example where Delta had sourced a used 777 for less than $8m in December compared with a factory fresh price of more than $250m. The article ends with the following salutary paragraph, followed by a graph headed "Emerging airline stocks underperform". The final paragraph is:- " All of this is cause for concern for holders of the leasing companies' debt and shares. While secured, the leasing debt is only as secure as the creditworthiness of the airlines that use the planes, and the second-hand value of those planes. Shares in emerging market airlines, the main buyers of new planes, have tanked over the past year. But leasing companies' debt is still trading at par value. One aspect of this relationship will have to budge soon". No doubt observers will stick their hands in the air and correctly say that Avation lease speciality aircraft which are in great demand and have good resale value with strong lease covenants. However, one cannot ignore the share price performance of certain airlines over the past year, nor the anomaly where older aircraft appear to be very cheap to run as a result of their low second-hand values. For me, one to watch from the sidelines pro-tem. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
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