Avarae Global Coins Share Discussion Threads

[mach100] 08/1/2014 17:10

Small tick up today Sky. Maybe the floor has been reached. But these shares with little newsflow are always vulnerable to tree shakes and bored sellers. Especially if you money is tied up for some time and the market is rising around you. Mind you they are a fairly good hedge if China or tapering causes a sell-off.

[skyship] 08/1/2014 09:03

Well, well, well............just seem something VERY interesting on Bloomberg. A review of the top performing hedge funds in 2013 shows Lansdowne Partners (our new 3% shareholder) came in second overall. We are in very good company it would seem.

[skyship] 05/1/2014 08:23

CJ - will reply over on the APT thread...

[cousin jack] 04/1/2014 21:20

Skyship:

I notice you don't mention APT amongst the "liquidating company" sector holdings from which you are hoping for further good runs. Is that because you see an increasing risk of further writedowns or have reservations about management strategy/capability? Or simply that you think there are better plays in the ones you mention? I currently hold ACD and APT but am tempted to sell the latter and invest elsewhere given recent trends...any thoughts you have on APT would be appreciated.

[skyship] 04/1/2014 15:03

Mach - as I posted on the CP+ thread in that extensive piece on LSR:

"In Jan'13, sensing that the economy was turning and that the fall may have been overdone, a rather secretive hedge fund named New Solera Holdings started to build a stake. By the end of August they held 20 million shares (24.24%); dropped back to 19.1m (23.15%) in November; then moved ahead again to 19.85m (24.07%) just last week. This was shortly after the Chairman announced, without any explanation, a cut in his stake from 9.3% to 6.4% by selling 2.4m shares at 24p. There was a corresponding undeclared buyer at 25p."

Personally I'm totally relaxed by that part sale. Could be any number of reasons, inc. the more than the £1/share tax loss! I take the positive view that someone else bought that 2.4m...

[mach100] 04/1/2014 13:25

Sky thanks a lot, will definitely have a look! I am the kiss of death though as I couldn't find a haystack in a needle in terms of value but can find the only shares dogs hidden in 1 million and one Dalmations or damnations. Will definitely have a look at LSR, totally appreciate the advice from a man after my own heart on looking for value. I will suck it up if it tanks and thank you if goes up should I invest in it. Ooh what do you make of that chunky director sell at 24p? Ok it is a third of his holding and he still has 5 million. I only like large sells when directors do it to satisfy large institutional demand or a wife ( same thing I guess!). Quite a large dump if there is big upside however.

[skyship] 04/1/2014 12:54

Mach - Buying assets at a discount is very much my play, always has been, but I'm finding it very difficult to find them now.

Usually the property sector represents 33%+ of my portfolio, but I've been banking profits, so the sector now represents a mere 13% in just CIC & LSR - the latter my TIP for 2014 on a 44% NAV discount.

For the past two years I've enjoyed good profits from the Private Equity sector. Two years ago 40% discounts were two a penny; now the average is down to 20%; with JPEL still stand out value on a 35.6% NAV discount.

I've also enjoyed good runs from the specialist "liquidating company" sector. Hopefully will continue to do so from: ACD, LSR, MTH & NRI.

The three thread links below are to those three sectors. If you have any other high discount plays to add, I'm sure the few of us on this thread would welcome your post.

Propco thread:

PE thread:

Liquidating companies thread:

[skyship] 04/1/2014 10:16

Mach100 - all as per zangdook & poacher above. It is a bid that will release the value here; and post SGI's bid for NBL this is a highly probable "cleaning up loose ends" move for 2014.

I don't give it a high allocation, but AVR is a good, secure investment with a possible sudden 25% upside in the short/medium term.

[poacher45] 04/1/2014 09:19

According to morning star there was one deal of 500000 at 10p. Must have been a matched bargain. Mach100 you are right the only way the big holders will make a profit is by a takeover bid. Sooner or later this will happen. Montoya are over 29% and cannot go over 30% without making a bid. My suggestion would be that the auction house bid. Think of all that lovely buyers and sellers commission and at the end of the day it would reduce there OD considerably. 13-13.75p that would suit me.

[zangdook] 04/1/2014 03:41

He won't have paid 1p - that's just the nominal value, as you suggest



But we don't know exactly what he paid, because there weren't any trades reported on the 19th, so it must have been done privately (unless AVR trades on isdx, but I can't find a page for it).

[mach100] 03/1/2014 21:42

Sky, did he get these for penny or are these the nominal value and he paid 10.5p? I like this company really but find it hard to see much growth in it. I can see some attractions in a low interest environment but only a takeover bid would spark a quick revival.

[skyship] 03/1/2014 08:32

Missed this very interesting RNS back on 30th December. Paul DeWinter - Head of Equity Trading at alternative asset investors Lansdowne Partners - buys 500k and in doing so passes through the 3% disclosure threshhold.

May well not be a personal holding, but whatever, looks as though we're in good company...so much encouraged by this move.

30 December 2013

Holding in Company

The Directors of Avarae Global Coins plc (AIM: AVR.L), the UK's only publicly traded company dedicated to investing in rare and high quality coins, were today notified by Mr Paul Dewinter that following the purchase of 500,000 ordinary shares of 1 pence each in the capital of the Company ("Ordinary Shares") on 19 December 2013, Mr Dewinter and his connected parties are now interested in 2,523,160 Ordinary Shares, representing approximately 3.1% of the Company's issued ordinary share capital.

[mach100] 17/12/2013 16:55

NAV is 14p. Trading at a loss of 142k and 114k net cash. I think the company has good break-up value but not trading at enough of a discount to command much of a premium for a takeover. I don't particularly agree that we are coming out of recession as the company claims. For sure it is a better hedge than gold but there are other shares with more shine than this one.

[badtime] 17/12/2013 09:29

Interims are out

[dashton42] 13/9/2013 13:57

I'm probably wrong, but I think SGI will have bitten off as much as it can chew with any offer for NBL (i.e. a substantial placing), without worrying about anything else at this time.

Still, obviously the market doesn't agree with me today.

[stevenlondon3] 13/9/2013 11:50

With all the extra cash SG is raising there must be a slim possibility that it buys out the stock noble does not own.

[dashton42] 12/9/2013 17:12

Anyone aware of any ramifications of the proposed buyout of NBL by SGI on AVR? Other than that AVR would be advised by SGI/NBL in the future if the deal goes through?

[skyship] 19/7/2013 08:47

Pretty disappointing set of numbers. No haste to buy back in here; only the faint bid hopes to sustain a double digit share price

Yield 1.7%; PER 24x; just the 27.5% NAV discount underwriting the share price

Will wait for 9p...

[dashton42] 05/4/2013 15:01

Do you know, I didn't realise, until I looked at the AVR website just now, that the company is advised by NBL. It's funny how everything is interconnected in the world of finance (and numismatics too, I expect).

[dashton42] 05/4/2013 14:51

Me too battlebus2

[battlebus2] 05/4/2013 14:37

Dashton42 i like to spread the risk hence 30+ shares in the portfolio at one time which might explain why i pop up so often.

[dashton42] 05/4/2013 14:35

Well, he is "high net worth", and you don't get that way by having an aversion to money...!

I know I'm probably indulging in pointless speculation, but even so, will be keeping my eyes peeled for any further top-ups.

[zangdook] 05/4/2013 13:29

It's possible this is just a fairly secure place to park some cash - it's not like a nickel mine which you want to take over so you can pump in the money and develop it at your own speed and maybe sell it on once you've got it running. Neither is the discount here anything like the discount to the potential value at ENK.

Or maybe GE likes coins.

[dashton42] 05/4/2013 13:23

...and the co. does seem to be trading at a fair old discount to the nav (13.8p at 30th September 2012 according to the interims); the last reported valuation was way back in March 2012, and they are due to have just carried out a valuation for 2013...

I'm sure it's reading too much into things to note that Montoya topped up just before the 2013 revaluation was due, so I won't.