Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[nugacity] 16/10/2015 12:41

Wow, thank you for the link to a great presentation Jeffian.

David has come across in writing as someone who is too honest for his own good, and that quality was apparent in the video but I never spotted any gaffs and was well impressed by him. His non-targetting of China and neutral attitude towards India until Africa is complete was beautifully addressed.

I like honest opinions and feel safe in his hands after hearing the video.

Start selling a few folks, I want to pick up a few more shares cheaply :O)

[jeffian] 16/10/2015 12:11

Quite an interesting interview with David Williams on the Hargreaves Lansdown site -




Addresses the issue of 'late' delivery but says now sees revenues growing at c50%/year until full capacity in 2021.

[nugacity] 16/10/2015 10:48

£2.20 has become £2.30 at last ..... keep hold of your shares folks and drive 2.30 through 2.40

[sidam] 15/10/2015 22:27

Jeffian

With hindsight I misread your comment. I agree that many previous DCF derived targets have been proven to have been much too high.

Management now has to deliver as a holder I hope they will. If they do not let us hope the non executives will get someone who can!

[jeffian] 15/10/2015 19:14

sidam,
Maybe I was being too flippant but you miss my point. I'm perfectly happy with DCF - but the key is the 'CF'. "The reason is that the ramp up in revenues is much slower than original expectations." Indeed, hence my comment. Bring on the £500m EBITDA and I can manage the valuation!

[sidam] 15/10/2015 18:26

Penny falls
I do not have a link. I do have a pdf but it is quite large. It think it is quite a good piece. The discount rate is a bit low given the bond rate, but that could fall when we get to EBITDA positive.

The maximum utilisation rate is 80%, which I hope is low. As the company is making losses, the DCF value will increase as the negative numbers are past and the big positives get closer and therefore worth more.

If you want to post a contact, I could give you a call.

By the way, I totally disagree with jeffian. DCF is the only way to value an asset with a finite life. I do realise that a £20 target was shown by a broker, but it was wrong as they added a terminal value. That would have been OK if they also accounted for the expenditure needed to finance the terminal value. They did not.

I can also understand why earlier DCF values were too high. The reason is that the ramp up in revenues is much slower than original expectations. If the revenues are lower than expected, then cash generation is lower and therefore the DCF values.

The ramp up in the Cenkos model looks to me to be quite conservative.

Hope this is of use to you.

Best wishes

[pennyfalls] 15/10/2015 17:23

Sidam - Do you have a link or copy? Cheers

[jeffian] 14/10/2015 12:00

I think long-term holders will be a bit jaundiced about brokers' NPV valuations - a few years ago they were talking about £20+! Show us the £500m EBITDA and we'll do our own valuations, thanks.

[sidam] 14/10/2015 11:32

Bullish piece from Cenkos. DCF target 700p, but another present value projection of 841p based on £500m of EBITDA.

Hope they are correct.

[undertaker] 05/10/2015 11:30

No fbook deal then.According to Telegraph today fbook have signed a deal with Eutelsat for free internet to Africa!

[pennyfalls] 28/9/2015 16:14

Ps...but I agree sg31 - it's time for Avanti to deliver on their satellite quota.
More procrastinating BS from now on won't humour the Market

[pennyfalls] 28/9/2015 16:12

Tom W had his usual Bearwatch the other day and was plugging another shorting speech on AVN by Lucian M, which I believe, he made today.

Avanti is one of their regulars, which they're determined to push down.
Whether they have actually any clout or not, who knows.

There was something on Winnireth's ShareProphets the other day about Oxus Gold - going on about how the stock has recovered and the chart looking good for a "recovering miner"..
Ha

Not sure they know there is no business as they're in the middle of International Arbitration!

Can you elabrate further, Roscoe?

[sg31] 28/9/2015 14:39

We have all been on this board a long time. We know who is negative already, if anyone new comes along spreading doom and gloom we don't take much notice.

Having said that, the company do need to get their finger out and fill the satellites. Time to deliver.

[roscoepeeco] 28/9/2015 13:40

Guys you have got Tom W and Lucian M posting on your thread,they are act and 11% there is an ongoing investigation into this,but please take apaste and copy of any relevant info against yourself done by these two,they have their blue accounts under another name,but all is being looked into....But move fast because they will too.

There are others involved including advfn staff,but copy n paste this asap before they remove.

More to follow.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 23/9/2015 19:22

Serious thread nugs, you not out tonight?

[nugacity] 23/9/2015 19:08

On another board someone queried why the price is bobbing so much.

I thought the same but much of it is bogus - it is simply the high spread between buy and sale price. We end the day at a compromise point in the 10p spread and start at the sell price, the bottom of the spread. 4p or 5p on £2.20 is quite small but a rise of 5p would be nice tomorrow morning.

[wilksey1] 17/9/2015 10:33

another bit of news in-case anyone miss it



Avanti Communications & Motion Picture Solutions sign digital cinema distribution deal

[buywell3] 17/9/2015 08:22

From results

'Gross debt was $528.4m (2014: $517.0m) and net debt was $406.2m (2014: $321.7m)'

[michaelmouse] 17/9/2015 07:21

Maiden purchase of shares by Non-Exec, Andrew Green. £48,000 worth at £2.18.

Michael.

[jeffian] 16/9/2015 23:44

#1663,

This from an analyst's note in June 2010 -

"Our modelling of the company’s satellites assumes first year of operation capacity
utilisation of 30%, ramping up to 90% from the third year on the smaller (3,000 MegaHertz
capacity) Hylas 1 satellite and from the sixth year on the expected larger Hylas 2 and 3
satellites (8,280 MHz capacity)."

That was over 5 years ago. These sats have a design life of 15 years. We need to get on with it.

[michaelmouse] 16/9/2015 16:11

A few brief thoughts on today's results:-



Michael.

[phillis] 16/9/2015 12:59

the old floating hockey stick