Avanti Capital Share Discussion Threads

[whealan] 14/1/2014 18:48

There don't seem to be any buyers for a large overhang according to my broker. i am resigned (and happy) to just tuck these away now and wait for something to happen.

[stockrod43] 06/1/2014 23:46

think these will be heading north from here on shorly need to get in quick when they start to move keep watching

[zwahla] 03/1/2014 19:40

@adam, I read that Ava has 7.9% stake in mblox. Do we know what mblox is worth and what the potential is here ?

[adam] 01/1/2014 11:33

mBlox Expands Geographic Footprint, Strengthens Executive Team

[mjcrockett] 24/12/2013 09:20

Yes, the ex date was after the record date in my EVT dealing. The situation was confused by a last minute change of dates by the company to fit in with court approval.

[typo56] 24/12/2013 08:47

mjcrockett, I've frequently sold a holding on ex-div mornings and always received my dividend. In your case I wonder if your broker would have paid you the dividend if you'd bought on ex-div day - you can bet they wouldn't!

You need to watch special dividends though. If they are accompanied by a corporate action (e.g. consolidation, return through issuing a new share class) they often go ex the day AFTER the record date, which usually means a Monday. Perhaps this is what happened with EVT?

[mjcrockett] 24/12/2013 08:34

I agree with you Typo and have updated my 579.

There was a very similar situation with a special dividend for EVT a couple of years ago when the MM's opened at the full price on ex-divi day. I thought I would be clever and sell my shares and benefit from the error. But I was never paid the dividend. I kicked up a fuss and involved the broker, the registrar and the company but they would not pay. It was not a large sum and I did not press it further but I still believe I was right.

The thing I did discover is that my broker and even the registrar did not seem to understand the rules either.

[typo56] 24/12/2013 08:33

After so many years I'm still surprised how many people don't understand the difference between an ex date and a record date. All that interests the average punter is the ex date. Try this:

[tpinvest] 24/12/2013 08:26

Something not quite right here!!!

From the info above you can at this moment buy at 56P, get yourselves on the shareholders register and then collect 105P dividend on the 16th January.

Santa Claus has arrived early. NOT

[typo56] 24/12/2013 08:23

Yes, the ex-dividend date was yesterday (Monday) so you could have sold at open yesterday and qualified for the dividend.

Ex-dividend dates are normally two trading days prior to the record date. As record dates are normally Fridays this means ex-dividend dates are normally Wednesdays but earlier if there are any bank holidays on the Wednesday or Thursday. Hence why about 20 companies had ex-divs yesterday, with AVA having a huge one.

[narindg] 24/12/2013 08:22

why the big fall

[ron64] 24/12/2013 08:09

The directors of the Company announced that a dividend will be paid on 16 January 2014 to those shareholders on the Company's register as at the record date of 27 December 2013.

[mjcrockett] 24/12/2013 08:07

So, if you sell your shares today will you still collect the dividend? I think so but DYOR.

The RNS from the company said "The directors of the Company have today announced that a dividend will be paid on 16 January 2014 to those shareholders on the Company's register as at the record date of 27 December 2013." So, if you sell today you will not be on the register on the 27th. But the stock is trading ex-dividend today - its the long gap between ex date and record date caused by Christmas that has caused confusion.

[typo56] 23/12/2013 21:48

Wow, pity I didn't spot this one earlier. Well done if you managed to sell this morning and collect your 105p dividend.

Must watch out next time Christmas & New Year fall on a Wednesday - six years to wait!

[mjcrockett] 23/12/2013 16:57

It would seem that AVA should have gone ex-dividend today but there seems to have been some confusion as trades went through earlier at over 140. I suspect that the MM's shut up shop until they get clarification. The picture may be clearer tomorrow.

[the_beagle] 23/12/2013 11:02

What's happening here?

[whealan] 20/12/2013 19:11

Well, we'll have an investment in it for nothing. The money or Mblox!

[kylie69] 20/12/2013 09:20

On 18th April 2013 NXT Capital venture finance provided a $14million venture loan.

[adam] 19/12/2013 13:02

I agree entirely, but less than 1 x revenue for such a business is conservative and takes in to account more downside than upside. I would think zero is very unlikely, but if things take a turn south and they do a cash call, then Avanti may not wish to participate and get diluted. I suspect though that they will float next year as it is a long time private and the VCs will want exit.

[eezymunny] 19/12/2013 11:37

Err nothing about cash flow in that statement Adam!

"Notwithstanding the above, there continues to be real uncertainty over the challenges that lie ahead for mBlox "

I truly not trying to be negative. Just think it's fair that anyone reading things understands that there's a wide range of outcomes for AVA's stake in mblox. From zero to a big number.

[adam] 19/12/2013 11:27

Where do you get your "apparently cash flow positive" from Adam?

The Avanti accounts :-

With renewed focus on the messaging market, mBlox is poised to have the best year of profitability in its 13-year history.

[eezymunny] 19/12/2013 09:27

To add some balance we don't know how much the mblox stake is worth. It might turn out to be nothing, or as Adam says it might just float for some crazy price, or something in between. AFAICS revs are about $100m but loss-making and balance sheet quite weak (based on the scant info I've dug out). Where do you get your "apparently cash flow positive" from Adam?

[lbo] 19/12/2013 09:04

Well said Adam! I think fair value is over £1.50p with a very conservative valuation on Mblox

[adam] 18/12/2013 10:09

You need to look at the pro-forma balance sheet, not the consolidated accounts.

Eclectic was an associate by dint of the large shareholding, hence accounting NAV included Eclectics balance sheet.

Avanti had £1.3m of net current assets on a pro forma basis.

They will receive £9m approx from disposal of Eclectic and return £8.5m, thus leaving some £0.5m residue on top of the £1.3m. Perhaps there is some further accruals of interim interest since balance sheet date, so let's say £2m in round terms.

Espresso will net £340k with 80% payable on completion. I would set this aside against group costs to be safe.

They have 7.6% of mBlox valued at cost of £4m (implying equity value of $85m @ 1.62 £/$) which had revenues substantially above $100m and apparently cash flow positive. So less than 1x revenue does not look a stretched valuation and could potentially be worth a lot more.

So say ex-dividend NAV of £6m (gross of carried interest) with 8m shares in issue = 75p/share

Hence 180p cum-dividend

We can dream of 5x revenue blockbuster IPO for mBlox or even just a trade sale at 3x revenue or it could be a busted flush.. You pays your money...