|Well you have just about said it all wan. I agree he has just about run out of money yet again. The bit I like is losses will be as forecast. How many years ago was it when he forecast a profit for the next year. Alastair should this time be made to concentrate his mind by having to put all his assets including his house up as collateral. I suffered a massive bad debt and several other problems which I wont bore you with but I made my business successful. It is time he stopped wasting other peoples money. This company is just a liability.|
|Spekky...I think that a history of never delivering is more deserving! We have heard so many times what the next market approach/development will be, for example, Sensipod - never happened, build out a large catalogue of reagents - never happened, microarrays and even revenues expected from microarrays - never happened, a raft of new Animal Health tests - never happened. Now we have confirmation that ubiquitination has gone the same way too!
I won't bore everyone with the raft of other quotations from Alastair regarding the rationale for Avacta's strategy of focusing on ubiquitin, but for those interested just search Avacta Ubiquitylation (or ubiquitination). And also look at the news flow from Ubiquigent - http://www.ubiquigent.com/news-and-events/ (where IP Group has a significant shareholding) and Ubiquigent also has collaboration with Ubiq-Bio....remember them?
Alastair Smith, Chief Executive of Avacta said: “This is probably the most important landmark in the Affimer story so far. Avacta is continuing to build a toolkit for the study of ubiquitylation and will make them available as part of an on-line catalogue which will be launched during the summer of 2014. Despite huge efforts over the past ten years antibody companies have been unsuccessful in building libraries of ubiquitin specific antibodies. Within a few weeks we have generated Affimer binders to a specific ubiquitin chain. As a result of the recent financing and this collaboration with UbiQ, we now have the technology and resource and access to ubiquitin chains to create large libraries of ubiquitin specific Affimer reagents. I expect to see a strong collaboration develop in this area with UbiQ and for us to grow a flagship catalogue to serve this important application in the study of ubiquitylation”.
As for the Trading Update as whole, it provided scant detail in terms of trading and was bloated out with recycled stuff. The management are starting the year with "great enthusiasm" shouldn't that be without question?
In my opinion, the market is being primed for another placing during 2017, and even if they have announced a licensing deal (which is likely to have no up-fronts), it will almost certainly have to be a heavily discounted offer.|
|For the stage of the company, and the state of the industry, these guys are making good progress. It will take a number of years for their discoveries to be translated into large revenues, they are doing all the right things.|
|If they didn't have a history of over promising......I would be tempted....BUT...|
|That's a substantial statement, preparing for an increase in newsflow this year. Positive|
|Why would Avacta want to present at this event.
Should we expect another placing?|
|Promotional post - The Growth and Innovation Forum will show you how to take advantage of new investment opportunities in technology stocks and funds. Come and see Alastair Smith, CEO - Avacta and 20 other companies present at the Growth and Innovation Forum on 31st January 2017 at Business Design Centre London. Find the next stock market ‘winner’. Satellite Solutions Worldwide +79%, CyanConnode +43%, Instem + 44%, Summit Therapeutics +32% and XLMedia +46% all attended last year. Click to register to attend for free Https://goo.gl/J9pCpW
The other companies also presenting Jaywing, RedstoneConnect, Blancco Technology Group, CloudCall, Frontier IP Group, CyanConnode, Bango, LoopUp, CityFibre, TP Group, AJ Bell, ANGLE, Legal & General UK Alpha Trust, Defenx, Instem, WANdisco, Collagen Solutions, Avacta, One pm Finance, Cenkos Securities and Mirada. Https://goo.gl/J9pCpW|
|AGM Friday, Innovation forum 31st ... let's hope so.|
|Should we expect good news soon?|
|Should we expect good news soon?|
|Moderna tie up, May 15.
Nothing concrete, but this is interesting:
mRNA-1706 – Zika virus vaccine (proprietary formulation): Moderna is advancing a second version of its Zika mRNA vaccine that contains the same active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) as the mRNA-1325 Zika mRNA vaccine, but utilizes one of the company’s next generation, novel formulations, V1GL. Good Laboratory Practice (GLP) toxicology studies are currently underway for mRNA-1706.
mRNA-4157 – Personalized Cancer Vaccines: Moderna, in partnership with Merck, is developing an mRNA-based personalized cancer vaccine to prime the immune system to recognize cancer cells and mount a strong, tailored response to each individual patient’s cancer. Moderna will identify neoantigens present in each patient’s specific tumor and will create a personalized vaccine encoding for approximately 20 unique neoantigens. When injected into the body, the mRNA directs cells to produce and express these neoantigens. In turn, this activates the immune system to better recognize and destroy the cancer cells. Moderna’s mRNA-based personalized cancer vaccine has the potential to be synergistic with checkpoint inhibitor therapies, including its partner Merck’s anti-PD-1 therapy, KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab).
Leveraging its rapid cycle time, small-batch manufacturing technique and digital infrastructure, Moderna plans to manufacture and supply its personalized cancer vaccines tailored to individual patients within weeks.|
|UBIQ Bio tie up, announced May 2014, described by Alistair as the most important "yet" (at the time).
Products are available on the website, no news items that I can see though.
|The ProtATonce partnership, announced February 2015 (almost two years ago) and the subject of a positive update in October the same year ... then absolutely nothing.
The "Avacta" tie-up remains the last "news" on their website, so wouldn't appear to have been superseded, but there's no obvious link to anything positive from the partnership either.
|Poacher...I still hold a lot less than I did, but I also took into account that during some of my more recent selling, there appeared to be willing buyers in the wings i.e. I could sell a lot more than the indicated market size (which is unusual for Avacta) and subsequent sells then had no effect on the bid price.
What I would add regarding today's news is that it adds further to the evidence (validation?) of the potential for alternative to antibodies. And also shows that interest in externally developed alternatives is live and very real. Clearly it does not exclude antibodies either (which adds a new dimension), but it does differentiate them! Furthermore, it would appear that between Roche and Servier, they have sown up Pieris, so the 'immediate' pool has effectively shrunk.
I think the main thrust is still that Avacta has to deliver and relatively soon!|
|Wan I felt sorry for you now I think you must be mad.|
|Again to be transparent and at the risk of overreacting, I think the news is note worthy enough for me to buy back some of my recent sells!|
|News from Pieris -
PIERIS PHARMACEUTICALS AND SERVIER FORGE STRATEGIC IMMUNO-ONCOLOGY CO-DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
PRS-332 Preclinical asset -
|Happy New Year Wan,
What a reversal of opinion on Avacta.
You were a big fan when you were selling!|
|Since the arrival of Aptuscan/Affimers I have always tried to understand the science and also keep a general eye on developments within the non-antibody market, including competitive offerings and emerging technologies etc. A relatively recent comment that I particularly took note of and one that is perhaps instructive was from Abcam -
Abcam acquires AxioMx to access new growth opportunities and extend antibody leadership
"After an extensive review of alternate scaffold and other in vitro technologies, we are confident that AxioMx has created unique, high-quality, and economically attractive methods to serve customers in research, diagnostic, and drug discovery labs globally,"
Alternatives to antibodies have been around for a very long time with some having been established since 1999, but antibodies are the ones that have flourished and the ultimate commercial breakthrough in therapeutics for non-antibody alternatives has still not arrived.
In non-therapeutic applications antibodies also dominate, with many non-antibody alternatives now suggesting that their offerings are superior to antibodies, yet despite these apparent advantages and being available for a very long time, again a breakthrough in non-therapeutic applications has yet to emerge.
Large players are developing their own alternatives to antibodies and also have a foot in the camp of perhaps some of the more promising alternatives . Non-exhaustive examples -
Roche - Pieris Pharmaceuticals, Anticalin technology platform (and possibly their own peptide technology)
Janssen - Their own alternative, Centyrins (and possibly why they pulled out of Molecular Partners collaboration).
Allergan - Molecular Partners, Darpin technology platform
AstraZeneca - Bicycle Therapeutics, bicyclic petide platform
Moderna - Avacta's Affimers
Moderna - Acuitas Therapeutics (not disclosed by Moderna) (and apparently they are also developing and utilising their own nanopartcle deliver technology).
Moderna may prove to be Avacta's lifeline, but it is far too early to tell (look at how long the others highlighted above have been in collaboration, plus the fact that they usually involved far higher upfront payment than what Avacta received from Moderna).
Phage display technology has become far more affordable and is enabling fast cost-effective development of alternatives to antibodies, and subsequently other non-antibody binding proteins are also emerging quickly.
Anyone with the slightest thought of Affimers disrupting the antibody market will be very disappointed as Antibodies and the plethora of alternatives will almost certainly coexist, but given the wide array of existing and emerging alternatives, the non-antibody market will not be controlled or dominated by any one technology! That's not to say alternatives to antibodies will not ultimately prove successful, but It is likely to be a highly fragmented market as they all have similar attributes, albeit some may command niche markets, which may prove enough financially, but in some situations niche might not provide the level of value inflection ultimately hoped for.
Although I remain open minded, in my opinion it is unlikely that Affimers will prove to be particularly superior to anything else out there, and whilst there might be room for several protein scaffolds across the range of therapeutic and non-therapeutic applications, it appears that there will be far more than just a few alternatives vying for a slice of the same business. Food for thought; is this why Moderna's upfront payment to Avacta was relatively small, especially in comparison to previous deals i.e. there is now plenty of choice (existing and emerging) and negotiations are somewhat one-sided? If so and IF Moderna make any further payments, then these are also likely be relatively small.
Furthermore, several of Avacta's previous collaborations have come to nothing (and did not get a mention in the AR), does this indicate similar in terms of increasing competitive offerings, or that Affimers failed to meet expectations? One would assume that it's one or a combination of both of them.|
Thanks for your summation.......sadly I fear you are more likely to be correct than incorrect.
I have been looking for a reason/trigger to reinvest.Having experienced some bad consolidations I cashed in just prior to Avactas'.Looking in from the other side you kind of become "poacher" ,if you get my drift.It would only have taken another Moderna type license (money upfront) and I would have been back in the blink of an eye.....but nothing.....ZERO.
Thank you for your great research and I still hope that you may be wrong.|
|LaValmy...One could answer your last question with another question, not just will Avacta benefit but will its shareholders? And one could also arrive at, not if it treads on the toes of IP's other investments in any way, such is the apparent involvement/control.
To be fair I am reading between the lines and perhaps I am putting 2 & 2 together and arriving at 6, but at this stage I don't like what appears, on the face of it, to be occurring. However, the poor investment track record to date is fact and the other fact of where most those investments originated from is hard to ignore. In the interim of finding a good one (investment!) Alastair has been and is being paid very well in my book.
To be ruthless, to date Avacta appears to have been IP's dustbin or to be kinder, recycle bin! However, IP are still Avacta's largest shareholder (albeit reduced) and will thus suffer or benefit according to Avacta's performance, but to date it all looks just a bit too coincidental and controlled from where I am sitting.|
|laValmy...I did look into the Curidium acquisition from an IP Group perspective (and their previous names), but I gave up as it just opened more doors on to what is already a disaster in terms of investment. But I would not be surprised if there was some involvement/connected parties.
One of the aspects that has really bugged me though is the constant changing of focus/strategy and with inadequate/poor explanation, which has continued with Affimers.|