|The reduction in Avacta's catalogue of research reagents appears to be getting the same silent treatment as other strategies/aspects that have previously been sidelined/ditched. Avacta's available reagents have now shrunk to just 17 (From 100 to 50 plus to now just 17)-
Yet elsewhere research reagents for so called difficult targets have notably expanded -
3 for 2 on Research Tools in February
Buy any 3 and only pay for 2
Purchase any 3 Research Tools, if they are the same price you will receive one free, if not you will receive the cheapest free.
Offer extended until 31st march 2017 and subject to our Terms and Conditions of Sale-
Competing ubiquitin reagents? -
Lots of reagents also available from Ubiqbio
I also note the recent news from Ubiqbio -
Nijmegen and Amsterdam, The Netherlands, February 20th, 2017:
Mercachem, a privately owned leading European contract research organization offering innovative medicinal chemistry solutions and UbiQ, a biotech company focused on the development and commercialization of research tools and small molecule drugs targeting the ubiquitin system, have established a new company called SumiQ Therapeutics to develop a targeted therapy for Myc-driven cancers, an unrivaled challenge in modern oncology research.
Full release - hxxps://www.ubiqbio.com/news/press-release-20170220/|
|Yes the immunogenicity results are key.
However,the big question is,Finncap have such poor placing power in this sector,can they support any good news?
They predict a share price of around £2 later this year but can't find any real support at 65 pence!
In my view Finncap are the wrong broker in this sector.
If Avacta have serious technology they need a serious broker.|
|Immunogenicity Data: A Key Milestone
• Avacta expects to announce in vitro immunogenicity data for its Affimer scaffold in the forthcoming months (H1 2017)
• A positive outcome would be a significant technical milestone
• Following on from the positive preclinical efficacy data
• Providing further evidence that the Affimer technology is a highly competitive therapeutic platform
• Keeping the Company on track to take the first Affimer candidate into phase 1 studies, targeted for 2019
• The potential immunogenicity of biotherapeutics is always a concern
• An immune response can decrease efficacy and cause adverse side effects
• A good result from the Affimer immunogenicity study would be a low responder rate in the 50 human samples being tested indicative of low immunogenicity|
|A low immunogenic response is an important characteristic, but Avacta always indicated that Affimers lacked immunogenicity given that they are modelled on a human protein. In any regard, the assessments are pre-clinical and even though it would be a step in the right direction (if positive!) I don't see it as a value inflection point.
Why are they recycling old news regarding the Affimer immunological assessment?|
|Maybe 1Q should be read literally, and they haven't said which "one"?|
|Dont hold your breathe|
|Nice note: htTP://hardmanandco.com/docs/default-source/company-docs/avacta-documents/21.03.17-low-response-would-be-positive!.pdf
"At the investor presentation given at the time of its AGM (21st January), management
indicated that it was expecting to announce a key technical milestone towards the
end 1Q 2017, with the publication of results from its pre-clinical immunogenicity
assays of PD-L1 Affimer constructs. "
That ought to be about NOW.|
|It would appear though that any of the ongoing evaluations that 'might' result in licensing agreements in 2017, will not involve any significant up-fronts nor indeed will they result in any immediate commercial traction in terms of revenue.
Excerpt from the FY Results -
The Company is now working with a number of potential commercial partners in these markets to provide custom Affimer reagents, which will undergo evaluation in their applications. Successful evaluations will lead to commercial licensing agreements and product development programmes which would be expected to take 12 - 24 months for the third party to complete.|
|Assuming supply and demand is driving the price, the question is "who has lost faith and is thus selling, and why".
Any deal, not even a substantial one, which commercially verifies the technology, justifies the current market cap in my view... a substantial deal would surely see big pharma knocking the door down.|
|I come back to perspective. Of course its true that there are other compounds and ranges of compounds out there that can make money. The key questions on this bulletin board are not whether other strategies can win, but (a) whether Affimers have a niche in the global biotech marketplace and if so what might be their competitive advantage and (b) do the current management have the ability to see this through to achieving success.. achieving real commercial traction.
The first of these questions is addressed head-on by two new papers on the Avacta website www.avacta.com/investors/documents entitled "Affinity Reagents: The Landscape and Affimer Technology Competitive Advantages" and "Immunogenicity Data: A Key Milestone". These address many of the issues raised by wan on this BB. They are also quite realistic. They do not make the claim that Affimers are the only game in town. Rather they seek to show that they are a powerful tool, they work, they have advantages and the potential markets are huge, so there should be ample scope for Affimers to find a very profitable niche. They also confirm, for those who are still sceptical, that the whole area of protein scaffolds has excited huge interest and indeed continues to do so. We need to note that such claims are not just backed by the opinion of the management, but by real deals in the commercial world not just with Moderna but also with Horizon as well as the support of IP Group and the support of some significant academics. In this context it should also be pointed out that Avacta, as far as I can tell uniquely amongst protein scaffold companies, are adopting a "multiple shot on goal strategy" by going not just for therapeutic markets but also for those in diagnostics and research reagents. Of course nothing is guaranteed, but it surely increases the chances of some hits on goal.
That leaves the major unknown for Avacta as the quality of the management. Can they turn that theoretical competitive advantage into concrete commercial traction? Can they make sales in sufficient volume? That is the key challenge the company now faces. As an investor one has to try to forecast how that might turn out. The data available to us now to try to answer that question must include the fact they have got the backing of IP Group, and other investors in a significant rights issue, that they have taken the Affimer technology and commercialised it in new facilities and they have credible programmes under way with substantial partners in both therapeutics and diagnostics. The uncertainty is that they have not yet closed a significant commercial deal... What they have said is that they are confident the first deal(s) will be closed in 2017. It seems to me entirely possible that such deals will be closed. The resultant question for investors is therefore perhaps.. what level of revenue from such deals is necessary to justify the current 66p share price? and how likely are they to achieve that level of revenue?|
|Yet 'another' report commissioned by Avacta!
In my opinion only, and despite what is said in the Report about the timing of an inevitable capital raise, a dilutive capital raise looks a lot closer than the report suggests.
Having concluded a deal with AstraZeneca, Bicycle Therapeutics peptide technology has continued to catch attention (without commissioned reports). Worth a read -
How did this Biotech seal a €1B Deal with AstraZeneca? The CEO Explains
Evelyn Warner on 06/03/2017
Bicycles have so much potential here, because they’re small enough that they can be absorbed through inhalation. We are innovating in drug delivery, I suppose, but we’re developing therapeutics — you can always ask, where does one start and another one end?
The point is that bicyclic peptides are very specific, fast-acting and rapidly cleared. They’re also chemically synthesized so we can generate a lot very quickly.
Full story - hxxp://labiotech.eu/bicycle-therapeutics-kevin-lee-interview/
|Some new research on the company just appeared here. hxxp://www.capitalnetwork.com|
|Im in , just the sort of share i like, all the hard work done and "" investment "" paid for, hopefully newsflow will start after investors patience rewarded.
Get the timing right.
So about now is the right timing to risk say £500.|
|ds1000...That's very strange, and means that the two of us that were in discussion missed it, and I checked every director related transaction and again means I actually missed one titled "Director Dealing and Issue of Equity" and in the date range on which the original question was based -
Lentjes 25 Feb '17 - 11:26 - 1012 of 1024
"My point being he has now waited almost 6 months since his last purchase so what is he waiting for ?"
When I too checked, there was indeed nothing showing, so perhaps we both missed it then!
Did anyone else check during the related discussion period?
ds1000...I note that you registered as an unvalidated user only on 2nd March 2017, so I am not sure how you have been reading the thread for a long time. Anyway, I apologise to all readers for not being accurate with regard to Albin's purchase/issue of equity.|
|Wan. This thread used to be a useful source of information, albeit with its fair share of speculation and assumption. But this last exchange about Albin's share purchase is simply ill-informed and reflects the level to which this discussion has fallen. Can no-one else see an announcement on the Stock Exchange web site on 5th Jan, which is also on the company's web site news page, saying that he bought his December 2016 shares? It seems that you dont even read the announcements from the company now but are suggesting something is amiss. I am not interested in speculation and innuendo and in this case it is completely wrong. I have never posted before but have been a long time shareholder in avacta who has enjoyed reading your stuff on occasion but the value of this thread has now dropped practically to zero.|
|Lentjes...No I don't agree! The announcement is clear that the purchases would be made quarterly and based on a calendar year (not fiscal year). The last purchase was announced 4th October that covered the quarter ending 30th September. There is no evidence of a purchase for the quarter ending 31st December.
As for Bango, never heard of it, but a quick look revealed a lot of hype i.e. revenues £2.6m, negative cash flow and loss making and yet a market cap approaching £70m....so a lot of hype/hope in the price. End of off-topic discussion on this please!|
Off topic have you looked at Bango and if so what's your thoughts ?|
So you agree with the exception of Q1 2016 he has met his obligation
Don't get me wrong there is still the question as to why a guy with insider info is holding back on when he commits to the next tranch of shared|
|Lentjes...Read the original announcement -
"Mr Albin will invest a total amount of GBP12,500 per annum in new Avacta shares. He will purchase the shares on a quarterly basis, purchasing GBP3,125 of new shares on each of 31 March, 30 June, 30 September and 31 December. The purchase price of the shares will be the average mid-market closing share price for the five trading days immediately prior to each quarter-end. The terms pursuant to which Mr Albin will purchase his shares are fixed and he has irrevocably committed to such terms."
Just to be clear though, in March Albin did not buy £3,125 worth.|
Q2,Q3 & Q4 2016 purchased and Q1 2017 outstanding|
He purchased in Q2, Q2 & Q4 so Q1 still outstanding|
|Thanks I missed it because it has now been titled "Issue of Equity" (which it is), but that will be the Q3 i.e. 30th September, so 31st December is still missing. It is more transparent to call it an issue of equity.|
There was a RNS on 4th October where he picked up a further 3225 shares although it does not give a purchase price so that looks like his Q4 commitment|
|Lentjes...If you recall the original agreement, Micheal Albin entered into an irrevocable binding commitment to purchase shares on each quarter e.g. 31 March, 30 June, 30 September and 31 December. As you point out, he effectively made the 30th June purchase on the 7th July. But given that he appears to have missed two quarters, has he not honoured the irrevocable commitment then? In my world irrevocable means it cannot be changed, but like a lot of things with Avacta....things get routinely changed and it's all about as clear as mud!
Albin's irrevocable agreement -
|Or hanging on until the share price falls further|