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AUL Aurelian

10.125
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 01:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Aurelian LSE:AUL London Ordinary Share GB00B15S8C31 ORD 5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 10.125 0.00 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 10.125 GBX

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Posted at 28/12/2012 09:33 by johncraven
So merger a cert now on the25th of Jan. The equiverllent AUL price is 11.5p
Posted at 14/11/2012 12:12 by johncraven
Ive now got 1.5million shares in AUL and accepting the merger due to the current SLE valuation/assets etc. AUL now valued at over 11p with merger. So still no reduction in the AUL - SLE share price gap.
Posted at 13/11/2012 22:17 by imabastard
Greenroom .... I know you asked a question about the merits of SLE. I can only write from an SLE shareholder perspective.

The gas potential is huge .... Siciny .... asset value (gas value) based on 10%/20% extraction as cited by John Buggenhagen the Exploration Director with 450 BCF per square mile and over 1,000 square miles (without any AUL acreage) and based on current prices paid for gas in Poland .... anything from £60 Billion to £240 Billion. Siciny due to test this quarter ... Talisman not involved in Siciny at all. Poland want gas, politically, above all else .... they'll make it work.

.... but better than that in relation to how swiftly to monetise an asset.

The oil (without any acreage from AUL) 20 well programme, first well they hit oil, second well spudded, awaiting results .... believed to be a 'Mississipian' type oil play (Google it) .... low cost .... less than £1 Million drill cost per well .... with their seismics, they quote an 80% success rate with every drill .... potential billions of barrels if the 'Miss' type is proven. Cash from oil produced will be immediate .... and contracts already in place for all oil they can produce .... no surprise as Poland is a large nett importer of oil.

This is all very lovely sounding .... but until they come up with the estimated oil in place and flow rates .... "sounding" it will remain .... but news is due within weeks .... now if they come up with some healthy numbers .... the SLE price could easily rise swiftly to 25p + .... depends on the numbers .... but if there will be 20 wells producing 500 - 1500 Bopd and Billions of barrels OIIP .... it easy to see how the price could escalate dramatically.

If the SLE price rose to 25p before Christmas, as an example, the AUL deal per share would be worth 32.5p .... and so on.

Far from guaranteed .... nothing ever is .... but it would certainly look 'sweeter' for all.

This was just to give you a view from the other side of the potential merger.
Posted at 13/11/2012 18:09 by ohisay
I wasn't going to post anything here as I exited at 10.25p yesterday at a small profit.I bought all the way down from 13.7p to 7.4p.But as Greenroom looks like he's the only one thinking on here I'll add a comment or two
I too had a risked nav of around 20p - cash 8p /Siek 6/7p/ rest 5p.It was a reasonable punt.
Its sad for AUL that effectively they only had only one offer that valued their European gas assets at such a small EV but that's a valuation fact - they took 9 months over it after all.They wanted (as announced in Feb) a big partner to spend several 100m$ capex to fully develop that nominal Siek CPR.See that Finncap note from February!
What does that say about how the market might value SLE's European gas assets - I'm not surprised they were weaker first thing yesterday.
I think the landscape has changed for shale in Poland since SLE /AUL were investors favorites last year - country reserves reduced - majors exiting( in all likelihood Talisman too as they exit non core assets).3legs has only just been trading above cash too - a tad better now they may have had a discovery.But in general decent valuable conventional /non conv. gas discoveries across mainland Europe have been few and far between these last few years
So I've no wish to be in SLE for its Euro gas assets.
The rest yes - I'd happily be in for Ireland /Morocco etc.But their funding model is anachronistic IMV - it stopped being rel easy for Aim co's to get hold of cash 18mths/2 years ago.
They have this huge disparate bunch of assets with not much cash - I just don't think they can possibly have the proper focus to use that AUL cash well over the next year.Their model is a recipe for disappointment unless they get very lucky.
Cash in fact would be better spent outside European gas IMV unless they have a compelling target.
I wish all SLE holders well but even at 8p its too high for me.I can see more dilutive placings/larger then ideal farmouts over the next 18 months.
If you want Euro gas or UK gas look at EDR 10m market cap 3m cash AND a catalyst for some share price growth before the end of the year - if you look.
Oh and yes IF you want to be in SLE then AUL would be a buy tommorow not SLE.
Posted at 13/11/2012 16:40 by greenroom78
JC - Sorry but I disagree. There are plenty of reasons that people sell for. To get the SLE price you have to wait until early next year and you have no guarantee it will be 8p then (it might be double that it might be less, who knows?).

IMO those selling are the ones that had hoped for a better deal than the one on offer. I too have considered it. I bought just under 9p with a target of 15-20p in a 3-6 month period based on a farm out of Siekierki or better still a takeover for cash (or paper from a major). I did not expect a slightly better than cash offer from another junior to get the approval of the IIs and personally I'm not impressed by it. My guess is management are recommending it because they already have their futures guaranteed.

I cannot deny that by selling sub 10p you would be giving them away cheaper than current value but it is clear from my above statement why they will trade at a discount. SLE share price is not fixed and you have no guarantees of getting 10.5p for each AUL share when it closes as SLE can still fall. I would expect this discount to reduce as the merger date gets closer.

This is added risk whether you like it or not.

Buying SLE is daft though, because if you want to buy into SLE today with a view to holding long term (and you believe the deal will go ahead) you may as well buy AUL and take advantage of thee discount.

IMO you are wrong for condemning people who want or need to sell, however those thinking of owning a combined company long term should be buying AUL and not SLE while this discount is this wide (IMO).
Posted at 13/11/2012 13:50 by hulltiger
John I would imagine they will have to wait for the vote but I would think that it will be asap as the idea of bringing two companys together is to cut cost among other things, so the first saving would be a delisting for AUL. If like me and decide to take the SLE shares there does not appear to be any reason to keep tabs on the AUL share price
Posted at 12/11/2012 16:56 by bones30
> SLE is one of the most undervalued companies on AIM in comparison.

You could argue that this was a clever move by SLE as it values AUL assets at close to zero, but was an alternative to raising capital which SLE would have likely have had to have done at a pretty horrific discount to the share price. This is, I suspect, the reason why SLE's share price was/is so low. So in a sense this was a cheap way to get some funding together.

With the funding shackles off perhaps SLE's share price can now make progress, which in turn will reflect favourably in AUL's.
Posted at 12/11/2012 09:03 by knobbly
Greenroom, agree with that.

What I don't understand is that I would expect AUL share price to now track SLE share price x 1.3.

But AUL share price isn't. Any clues why?
Posted at 12/11/2012 08:23 by odvod
because aul price is now determined by sle share price * cca. 1.3
Posted at 03/11/2012 09:19 by johncraven
ohsiay - thats what people were saying on the way to 80p. Just kept rising and rising. The demand for oil and gas shares will increase in the near future and the potential of 2013 being a big year for Aurelian could see a share price of last years high of 80-90p without any further dilution to shares in issue. So infact within 12 months could easy see 8 -9 times current share price.
Aurelian Oil & Gas share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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