Atlantis Share Discussion Threads

[born again terrorist] 22/12/2004 23:54

good call outsider

[a0148009] 22/12/2004 22:58

NTV

Old stock market adage never sell a dull market - this one is unlikely to roar away but is well supported by NAV 53p plus enormous opportunity to leverage the business after the strategic revue. Good small company core holding which will outperform. Take a look at the chart.

[master rsi] 06/12/2004 12:51

Has been very strong all day.

not much share trading, but all buys so far, no wonder they are up.

[a0148009] 01/12/2004 11:52

Decent shakeout of short term punters and retracement down to previous old high
IMO should consolidate breakout from here.

[zog] 29/11/2004 10:59

guru11, its not easy to come up with estimates of full year eps or p/e – extrapolating the interim results isn't really appropriate for the "lumpy" investment strategy of Arlington. Having said that, as far as I am aware they still have a (100% owned) operating subsidiary company, Cemtron, who are a contract electronics manufacturer (see www.cemtron.com). Cemtron's figures are incorporated into Arlington's results and form a substantial part of Arlington's "revenues". e.g.:-
For year to March 2003 ARL revenues were £14.3M of which £9.3M from Cemtron. "Cost of sales" at Cemtron was £8.4M and Cemtron made a "net profit after tax" of £301k.
For year to March 2004 ARL revenues were £20.4M of which £9.9M from Cemtron. "Cost of sales" at Cemtron was £7.4M, profit unknown (but likely to have improved given higher revenues and lower costs?).
[The above figures were taken from Arlington's Annual Reports and the Cemtron 2003 Annual Report. I haven't seen the Cemtron 2004 AR. Please DYOR because such figures are not straightforward to interpret!].

I mention Cemtron because, as an electronics manufacturing business, you could arguably apply earnings-related assumptions to derive a reasonable p/e ratio for this part of Arlington's business. But without more recent figures from Cemtron itself, either full-year to March 2004, or interims to September 2004, it is difficult to do so. Maybe ARL will eventually float or sell Cemtron so that its full value can be more easily appreciated!

[a0148009] 29/11/2004 10:08

ARL is not an Investment Trust stock it does not have investment trust status.
I think you mean investment company globally diversifying in asset classes. Eventually IMO share price will rise to a premium over NAV as the four subsidiary companies leverage up the balance sheet with third party capital.The Group is very tightly managed focusing on capital growth.The management are ambitious but measured.

[ntv] 29/11/2004 09:57

long position at 46p

[day_dreamer] 29/11/2004 09:47

There's the reason for the price jump a hour ago.

170k buy at 47p when the spread was 42-45p !

Thats confidence for you, probably explains why the mm's
have been jumping about as the one who took it tries to
get that stock back cheaper !

Gravy

[day_dreamer] 29/11/2004 09:32

Problem with this stock is it is a investment trust stock
and not your run of the mill trading stock and there's too
many traders that have bought in not knowing the full details
and this is why it is so volatile, once the traders are out and
the price action calms down then they should resume their recent
gentle uptrend towards net asset value.
Short term it's going to be all over the place imho.

Gravy

[master rsi] 29/11/2004 09:02

YES it did in a big fashion,

narrow spread will encourage new punters

[day_dreamer] 29/11/2004 08:57

Price has took off in the last 5 mins !

[guru11] 28/11/2004 17:53

zog - that is one thing you mentioned about being for 6 months that occured to me. So what could the full year eps / pe ratio could be? Still must look good whatever way you look at it.

[zog] 27/11/2004 18:15

"Strong Expansion for Arlington" reports the weekend Financial Times, commenting on the big increase in revenues and pre-tax profit:-

[a0148009] 26/11/2004 18:50

Shame another thread created was not necessary as so little on the existing one.Cleaner I think we have got the message now the figures speak for themselves.Incidentally ARL exited the lions share of Eckoh at 17p cost 4.5p ish a price at which current investors would bite your hand off for.

[master rsi] 26/11/2004 15:11

The BREAKOUT is on since going to 41p early this morning

          

[zog] 26/11/2004 14:18

mac,
It is certainly true that the very nature of ARL's "investment trading" activities lead to rather lumpy profits (or losses) depending on the timing of disposals. But the recent results have shown some impressive gains in the value of the company's assets. The profit before tax for the last full year was £4.3M so today's interim results aren't just a one-off. Their web site at www.arlingtongroup.co.uk gives access to recent reports and accounts.

I agree that the future potential of Arlington is not easy to evaluate, but the cash pile alone gives some confidence - it also provides them with flexibility in following their forward strategy. In terms of an investment decision (i.e. buy or sell) much depends on one's opinion of how successfully the directors will drive the company forwards - their large percentage ownership can be considered as a good or bad thing accordingly. Definitely a company for which one must DYOR.

[mac] 26/11/2004 13:12

From all your comments above, is their not a rather one off nature to this result. If so are thye really a buy? Or is it not time to take profits?

[zog] 26/11/2004 13:01

Today's results would be pretty impressive for a full year, with net-asset-value increased by 15.6% and a profit before tax of £4.78M – all from a company valued at just £26M. Considering that the results are only for the first 6 months (i.e. half-year) they are even better!

With net cash of over £17M the management are in a good position to progress with their aims. As they put it, they intend to "build on the successful track record of the managers by expanding the Group's activities beyond the current trading and investing activities into third party fund management. This will be achieved both by launching new funds and/or by the acquisition of existing fund management businesses". This gives the benefits of both investment success and fees from management activities. By setting up four internal funds, focussing on European property, natural resources, Asia and special situations, they plan to use their own cash resources as well as attracting 3rd-party capital investment. There is also the possibility of listing these separate funds on the stock market in due course.

With Arlington's management owning 67% of the shares they have an obvious vested interest in continuing to build on the achievements of the company so far!

[thecleaner] 26/11/2004 11:26

buy! buy! buy! Buy! BUY!

[thecleaner] 26/11/2004 11:26

buy! buy! buy! Buy! BUY!

[a0148009] 26/11/2004 11:23

As a long standing shareholder who never doubted - at last the market is waking up to the quality of earnings and management in this
Company.IMO it is on a p/e to year end March 2005 of 2x - 4x.When the restructuring is completed after EGM on 23.12.04 it is set for further strong growth with the four new wholly owned subsidiaries which as the management state may seek listings in the future.It is leveraging up the balance sheet and has a long way to go in respect of the share price based on a firm foundation.

[woodpecker3303] 26/11/2004 10:25

Chart break out, the weekly chart looks very bullish, and based on the last wave, gives a target for the current wave as 50-60.

[woodpecker3303] 26/11/2004 10:20

I like this company, has good investment sense, not buying during the dot-com boom is one thing few managed to do. Their investment choices are certainly not bad, see IC write up below. I also like it cutting its stake in Eckoh from 14pc to 3. Speech rec is an interesting technology, but its growth is unlikely to fulfill many people's expectation.

Here is the write up from IC.

Like one of the Acquisitor twins, Arlington will soon be Bermuda-based. One reason is to avoid 30 per cent corporation tax, the other is to increase the number of investors in its self-styled "absolute return" vehicle - and so, hopefully, reduce the discount to net assets. At the moment, the absolute return vehicle consists of four parts. The main business is a Special Situations fund that has gone for cash this year. It has cut its stake in Eckoh (see this page) from 14 per cent to under 3 per cent and in July, and sold a 26 per cent stake in a chain of UK and Irish multiplex cinemas for around £7m, against a £2.65m cost. As a result, net cash balances have jumped from £14m at end-March to £23m. Other investments include a small stake in XKO (see this page), 70 per cent of Enneurope (ditto) and loan finance to enable Archipelago Resources to acquire a gold-ore crushing plant in Chile.

Two of the other vehicles are modest- sized hedge funds. One invests in Asian debt and equity, the other in natural resources. Arlington is also launching a commercial property fund. It will invest in high-yielding properties principally in France, but also in Germany, Italy, Spain and Switzerland. Its target is an annual cash return of 10 per cent. Some E50m has already been committed

[day_dreamer] 26/11/2004 10:18

Yes it an investment trust so profits can be volatile but
i dont see why they cant trade at around 50p instead of the
current 42.5p !

Not for traders, looks good for a safe 10% or more in the
shortish term.

Online quotes suggest not much stock around either as it's
42p bid for 75k and 43.5p offer for 15k.

Gravy