Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[acamas] 13/2/2017 09:51

waterloo01,

I read somewhere that the timing involved with selling a share is comparable to surfing waves. You speculate pick a wave ride it but get off it before it crashes onto the shingle on the beach.

Yes I do recall GKP especially the downs. I was in TLW & JKL(I think that was its ticker) at the time when they were doing nicely

[waterloo01] 13/2/2017 09:45

Acamas, I don't find it that hard as I've a decent spreadsheet but agree difficult to get it right in buying and selling. I've often over the years sold out at a low and reduced on a rising stock to see it continue to rise. Guess the main thing learnt is a profit is only a profit when it's banked and to cut ones loses early.

On resources stocks I've seen people so pleased with themselves that they start planning how many Rollers they might buy, only to find that they leave selling too late and loose the lot. (GKP springs to mind as do many exploration miners).

Having said that. I'm also overweight here, but I hope with good reason.

[acamas] 13/2/2017 09:34

waterloo01,

Portfolio management is a headache balancing % of each share in your group. Especially when your stocks contain shares from 71p to 1799p. Getting it right is very difficult. I am lopsided on this share but reluctant to trim down because rightly or wrongly as I see it the only way is up for the foreseeable future

[waterloo01] 13/2/2017 09:26

I'd just like to see fair value here, especially compared to our peers and we are no where near that point as yet (see Kaz comparison).

Mine is permitted, running at full capacity and producing increasing profits with copper at current prices. Astor will get sorted with a potential 'windfall' of not paying the debt at all (which I doubt) but regardless is manageable out of cash.

Personally I have and will continue to trade a few (most recently bought more) but as part of a diversified portfolio will keep ATYM at a rough % of my overall holdings.

[qs99] 13/2/2017 09:23

CAML is motoring ahead as well...

[acamas] 13/2/2017 09:19

rp,

It is very hard to be virtuous if you are sitting on large paper losses going back years. Nor does it help when newcomers pat themselves on the back because their timing in a share is spot on.

Also if you stick your head above the parapet you can expect to face pot shots

The best way to play these boards is not to declare your personal involvement but take the conciliatory middle way. I have learnt since the mid 90's it is the best way for least criticism bwdik

[rougepierre] 13/2/2017 09:11

Maybe people who criticise others trading/investing strategy should declare their own...and the results theyve achieved...I dont criticise others strategy, but people know my own and, because of that Ive been criticised...

However, some people on here are genuinely solicitous or give credit where credit is due...what unites us genuine ATYMers is a positive, unshakeable belief in the future prospects here, with no negativity, whether weve held a long time, averaged down, sold out or whatever...

GLA

[acamas] 13/2/2017 09:09

Copper rising ATYM rising It is almost as if the Astor outcome is being overlooked at present by the share price. That the outcome is no big deal.

[bewise2] 13/2/2017 05:40

Copper breaking 2.80 at the mo...if copper heads above 3.00 over the next period and Astor is resolved I cant see any headwinds to stop this share price heading north to over £3.00 which is only over 10p old money.....:)

[iankn73] 12/2/2017 14:56

Cufe - I wouldn't say that it was an "initial poor long term investment decision" as I had no idea that the commodities rout would have lasted as long as it did. I knew it would turn around eventually, just not sure when. I still believe in the long term potential with ATYM or I wouldn't still be here. Although I have been invested for 3+ years it was always a 5 to 10+ year vision for me.

"bitter" is too strong a word. I just get annoyed at short-termists chasing money jumping from stock to stock, artificially inflating the price of a stock to then duly dump it days later.

I agree it would have been nice to have bought in at a far better price. But when compared to others my average price isn't too bad, so cant complain too much.

I do listen to other forumite points, yours included from time to time believe it or not. :-) As I'm anything but arrogant.

I just tend to buy and hold my stocks rather than second guess the markets. As I usually get it wrong.

Hopefully we will get some news on the Astor case this week.

In the meantime enjoy the rest of your day.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 12/2/2017 11:06

Exactly waterloo01, our share price is wildly out of step with our peers using the same measures..

The majors, GLEN/KAZ are loaded up to the hilt with debt, and have a PE ratio of 30-40. Our forward PE should be about 2.5/3.0 for 2017 so it's a very cheap share relatively.

We do have a debt to Astor, but it's not attracting any interest unlike the 10/12% it could have been running at..

[waterloo01] 12/2/2017 09:46

Kaz currently has a market cap of $3bn. It's expected to make around $100m profit in 2016 and up to $185m in 2017. They also have about $3bn in debt.

ATYM should produce a profit of $70m in 2017, has a market cap $210m and no debt.

So what should our market cap be on a similar basis?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 12/2/2017 08:54

#HG.. , a part of a much wider and more diverse strategy..!

On trading, it can be done for sure but it does take more time and energy than my set it and forget it for 10 years Buffet style approach here.., right now I'm more focused on the progress of the company than the SP, and from this perspective our journey here has only really just begun, fully scaled up and open for business @ 9.5MTPA / 40,000 Tonnes from Jan 2017, now we are making some money we can grow the business. In 2-3 years time ATYM could be open with multiple sites/mines as they look to expand, and build the business, the share price will follow over time, so will dividends..

I heard years ago from someone, which I remembered, that the most successful traders are the dead ones, nothing personal I might add, but the message was they are the ones that don't keep jumping from A to B to C and hold so they don't keep missing the boats as they set sail..!

A very interesting week/month coming up for us with Copper likely to spike further on the outages in Chile, which sets a much wider precedent for outages elsewhere..

[head gardener] 11/2/2017 19:57

Bin, if Atym is your single investment, this strategy is crazy, there is a market out there to be exploited.My comment is well meaning and hope this B/B contributes to not losing money.

[cufes2] 11/2/2017 17:18

Ian

You have been holding this share for at least 3 years in a resource downturn . . . You have struck it lucky in the last few months . . . Well done on averaging down to put right your initial poor long term investment decision and your 11% gain over 3 years . . . Unfortunately you come across as a tad bitter because if you had listened to other points of view your gains may have been higher . . . But you chose to criticise people with an alternative views . . . All IMHO of course . . .

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/2/2017 14:49

I've always had a 10 year strategy here, started buying in 2010's ISA, and then every year until production, it's a set it and forget it share for me now, possibly 1 more top up in April subject to the price being under 200p, then in April 2020 I will see if I was right or wrong..

Could I have done better trading it..?, definitely could have yes, would I have hit all the swings right and not end up costing me more to buy back in..? no chance..! not only that but you have to keep revisiting decisions and over time that just beats you up, each to their own strategy..!

Copper $2.75+, and a possible $3.00 in sight now with a big hit to global supply just started..

[head gardener] 11/2/2017 13:44

This share has always been "jam tomorrow", but well might be "jam today". As a LTHolding twit I finally have a worthwhile investment, but never again will I watch a S/P collapse and hold for a decade.

[iankn73] 11/2/2017 13:05

CuFe, Yes, I have an issue with wannabie traders as most of them fail long term.... FACT no ifs no buts FACT!! The quicker they realise if they truly believe in a stock then hold it long term the better.

You may have been fortunate with your trading on this particular stock.

Too many punters trawling through these forums chasing money jumping from stock to stock, wondering why they are hemorrhaging cash, guaranteed route to long term poor house.

I'm already up 11% on my investment here and will happily sit on it at 200%+ taking advantage of dividends along the way thanks.

[shakeypremis] 11/2/2017 11:04

Even at a profit of circa $0.75/lb we are talking about a PER of around 3. So even without higher copper prices you'd imagine this current share price of circa 150p has scope to at least double.

[waterloo01] 11/2/2017 11:02

Anyone any idea on what PE (based on full capacity) would be? I note KAZ is on a PE of 42.

[rich1e] 11/2/2017 09:14

I'm just watching BBC breakfast and seeing increased efforts to develop cyber security experts for the future. It reminded me that, as an investment theme, there is an ETF that tracks the cyber security index (ISPY). Looking at it, seems to have gone from 500p to 800p over the last year.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/2/2017 09:11

BHP to declare Force Majeure, as Copper spikes..!



Feb/March is going to get really interesting, next stop $3.00 Copper..? with a $1/lb profit..!

@40,000 tonnes, that's $88M a year gross profit, with no tax to pay for a year or 2, if we get on the wrong side of the Astor deal (which I don't think we will) it becomes an operating cost and more of a side show.., and more economies of scale yet to be revealed this Q..

[cufes2] 11/2/2017 09:09

I'm certainly no expert trader . . . However, there is a time and a place for it and there was little point in claiming EMED was a long term investment in a resource downturn . . . IMHO of course . . .

[rich1e] 11/2/2017 08:57

Nothing against short term, though investors are the only ones, not guaranteed to make money from it, brokers from the fees, mms from the spread. In fact you could lose. If you can get it right most of the time, allowing for spreads, fees etc. then you’re onto a winner, go for it.

[cufes2] 11/2/2017 07:31

Actually it has been possible to make more than 95% trading this over the same period . . . Unfortunately Ian doesn't like traders or punters . . . And yet here we are again 3 years after Ian was first complaining about share price stagnation at 270p . . .