Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[rougepierre] 10/2/2017 18:59

copper nearly $2.77...ATYM making millions...rerate!!!

[waterloo01] 10/2/2017 16:10

Phoebusav, if we lost, that would be the argument. Astor say was an oversight, we say wasn't as deliberately left out by experienced lawyers from both parties to the original contract.

[iankn73] 10/2/2017 16:09

It seems to me the recent share price stagnation has had very little to do with the Astor case. As the share price has only moved as the price of copper surged today. Even although we are still making significant profits around the $2.60s mark we still had sellers taking it all the way down to £1.40s. It looks like short term wannabie traders looking to ride the copper surge.

Way too many get rich quickers out there constantly chasing cash. AIM and advfn is full of them. Why cant punters THINK long term.........

One of Warren Buffets quotes.

Make Long Term Investments Over Short Term Ones

“If you aren’t thinking about owning a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”

[acamas] 10/2/2017 16:08

You cannot draw down £0. ATYM had to arrange a loan of senior debt from a bank this they never did so the clause in the contract remains unfulfilled. You cannot lose what you never had bwdik

[rich1e] 10/2/2017 16:07

Nice little move up, copper doing us a favour. Come August the financial press will be reporting that we are in a bull market, 18 months after the likes of RIO.L started moving off the bottom. After that, it will probably have another 6 months to run and hopefully the share price here will have seen some exuberance akin to early 2011.

[rougepierre] 10/2/2017 16:04

151.95 for 2500...7p more than I paid an hour ago...

[rougepierre] 10/2/2017 15:56

Can only buy 100 at 152...

Bid for 25,000 (yes twenty five thousand) at 147.56...

Bid for 35,000 at 146.7...

Here we go again....

[phoebusav] 10/2/2017 15:51

Just had a read of the Nov 2015 Astor related RNS. States ATYM must pay if '(a) all authorisations to restart mining activities in Proyecto Riotinto having been granted by the Junta de Andalucía ("Permit Approval"); and (b) the Group securing a senior debt finance facility for a sum sufficient to restart mining operations at Proyecto Riotinto ("Senior Debt Facility") and being able to draw down funds under the Senior Debt Facility.'

Am I right in thinking ATYM did not require a senior debt finance facility to get into production. The spirit of the agreement appears to be they would pay once they had secured the funding to get into production. If they did not require a debt facility of this type then you could argue they were able to arrange a facility of £0M and successfully drew £0M. My guess is ATYM will lose the case. How do better informed, longer term holders see this?

[rougepierre] 10/2/2017 15:51

Copper over 6,000....6074!!!

$2.76....

We have BREAKOUT!!! Next stop $3/lb...

ATYM 146/152...yippeee!!

Onwards and upwards...

[shortarm] 10/2/2017 15:21

Copper up a thousand!!?!!

[rougepierre] 10/2/2017 14:48

Managed to snaffle 2500 at 144.68 and 2500 at 145 before the price went up...the latter on a fill and kill...

Nw 144/148...

[waterloo01] 10/2/2017 14:48

L2 on the move. 1.48 to buy and not many there.

[rougepierre] 10/2/2017 14:39

Looks like we're trying to break through big resistance at $6,000...then on to $3?

[iankn73] 10/2/2017 14:26

Let's get this bloody Astor case out of the way, so that the share price can benefit from this copper price surge.

Have a good weekend all.

[waterloo01] 10/2/2017 14:24

Even if we loose the case, I recon the downside would be under 18m euro now and then 5 years of 7-8m euros.

With the grant of 8m overdue (and possibly tied in) plus the cash from sales/profits and the cash savings made by deferring supplier payments, I would have thought we could just pay up out of cash. If Alberto has been prudent, which has been to date, I suspect that's the real reason for deferring the suppliers.

I think we'll win, but at this point a loss is quite manageable. (It wouldn't have been if this had gone to court in November 2015 when they filed the case and our market cap in the weeks after was under £65m and copper near $2.00).

[rougepierre] 10/2/2017 14:11

Meanwhile copper is absolutely flying....! Up almost 4% in the last 3 hours...!

[rougepierre] 10/2/2017 14:09

That's exactly my point husband...I'm not doubting the logic for ATYM pursuing this...I'm asking why are Traf driving it? As you point out they are one of only four major holders...what's their agenda...?

[cufes2] 10/2/2017 13:55

The company and board are simply trying to maximise the returns for investors . . . It's their obligation to do so as directors and it maximises their own returns given the ownership structure . . . Which also deters a takeover IMHO . . .

[vish65] 10/2/2017 13:22

RP - think your over complicating here. Traf are just being " commercially astute" and have the drive/ aggression to do something about it.

Their motivation in ATYM IMHO is the what's beneath and around the Cerro pit. And then selling this higher grade ore into a copper bull market.

They want to get the show on the road ASAP hence the legal bid to avoid or renegotiate . We already have the supplier deferral payments agreed until 2018 which I suspect is for the agreed set up of complex ore processing facilities.

[jwafc] 10/2/2017 12:57

Are you perhaps overanalysing the situation rp? The "oversight" in the contract is so obvious even I can see it - so it's not surprising Traf are all over it. It would seem they're just chancing their arm and aiming for at least a re-negotiation of the terms - as has been previously postulated.

[rougepierre] 10/2/2017 11:49

Here's my thinking...

If Traf really are behind the drive to fight the Astor case, what's their motivation....?

Clearly not to drive ATYM into the ground, so...

Given that they only hold 22% of the shares, either they must be driven by a belief that the shares will be worth very much are than this in the near future or...

They have a medium term predatory interest and want the Company to "spring clean" before their approach...

So here is the key paragraph from 2015...

"As security, inter alia, for the obligation to pay the Deferred Consideration to Astor, EMED Holdings (UK) Limited has granted a pledge to MRI Resources AG over the issued capital of EMED Tartessus and the Company has provided a parent company guarantee. The mining Permit Approval has been satisfied, however the Group has not entered into arrangements in connection with a Senior Debt Facility and, in the absence of drawdown of funds by the Group pursuant to a Senior Debt Facility, there is significant doubt concerning the legal obligation on the Company to pay any of the Deferred Consideration."

If I was interested in bidding for ATYM, I would want the Deferred Consideration matter cleared up and especially to get rid of the 15.9 million Euro liability or, at the very least crystallise it into a one-off liability, even if it had to be consolidated into the total Astor liability. If the Court rules that it is not due now or in the near future, that only leaves the matter of the pledge over the issued capital...

The question then becomes whether, on a takeover, the Astor debt would immediately crystallise...if it did, it simply effectively becomes part of the consideration, adding another 53/69 Euros (£45/60m), i.e. 40/50p).

However, the other shareholders would surely want at least 300p...

BUT...at $3/lb, I estimate that ATYM would be pulling a pre-tax profit of £65m pa, equivalent to 56p EPS so, even at an all-in consideration of, say 350p, a bidder would be getting the Company on an exit P/E of just over 6 times, which is hardly taxing...and that is without the additional drilled and undrilled resources...

Let me be clear that I am NOT forecasting a bid...I am simply asking what is in it for Traf to be pushing the Astor case...and what is in it for them in general, apart from the obvious fact that they have Aguas Tenidas mine only 47 minutes away and the new and exciting Mina Magdalena only 30 minutes away from Proyecto Rio Tinto....(hxxp://www.trafigura.com/about-us/structure/trafigura-mining-group/)

Doesn't that make sense as a portfolio...logistically...economies of scale...?

And with a copper price that many, including Goldmans, think is going to $3 and beyond, ATYM remains one of the brightest stars in the mining firmament, which is why so far I've bought back c15,000 of the c25k that I sold...

Anyhow, whatever the rhyme or reason, and especially at a copper price which keeps pushing $2.70 (and even if it drops back briefly on the Astor ruling) this share remains a no-brainer for me at these levels...or lower...

AIMHO as usual...

PS...of course I have an agenda...for these shares to go higher and keep going higher...isn't that what we all want...? (Except maybe if you're out or, like Mr O on LSE, want to buy back in at 100p...some chance... GLA ;-)

[acamas] 10/2/2017 10:10

I put in a reasonable sell yesterday and immediately the bid price was dropped to make my sell unattractive. They did not want my shares yesterday that is for sure. So I still hold them

[neilweymouth] 10/2/2017 10:06

It's interesting that after my buy of 4000 the offer went up to 144.95 then after the 5000 sell down to 143.7
It doesn't take much to move the price around, ANTO,KAZ,GLEN all going in the correct direction, fingers crossed.

[rougepierre] 10/2/2017 10:03

The two at 142.5 are sells reba IMO....

The buys are at 144/144.5, including two of mine...

Remember it is not the MMs that book them as Sells/Buys...the algorithm simply divides the spread by two and then allocates accordingly...but that in my opinion is how the MMs can manipulate...
When the spread was 145/150 the bid was actually c145 but the offer was c148.5, so the true mid price should have been 146.75 and we wouldn't have this problem...

AIMHO as usual...