Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[superbobtaylor] 17/1/2017 14:39

Langostino - why don't you just tell us all exactly what is happening then?

SBT

[langostino] 17/1/2017 13:37

rp - Your childish calculations are irrelevant to the share price Unless institutions decide they want to get into bed with Trafigura in what has become a quasi private operation, sporadic low volume trades by fickle PIs will lead nowhere. Who do you think is paying the wages - sorry, I mean the 'contractor'?

[cufes2] 17/1/2017 13:21

Husbod

A massive assumption on my part . . . But I think the two are possibly linked and if they get the grant there may be an agreement to pay the contractor earlier . . .

[superbobtaylor] 17/1/2017 13:17

#LLB: Agree with all of that.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/1/2017 12:00

#SBT, Alberto seems to be of the 'undersell and over report ethos', conservative on estimates, and then over deliver... so I guess we will have to wait and see in April.. but we will also have the Q1 tonnages too, and this being the 1st full 9.5MTPA quarter will give us much a better predicting toolbox for FY2017..

Let's not forget the efficiencies have gone up to 84.4% on recoveries, and fixed costs/tonne will reduce as the tonnes go up.. :o), it's all coming together nicely.

[husbod] 17/1/2017 11:37

I was wondering that too Cuf but I would hope the Grant is paid before 2018 particularly as the EU could have imploded by then.

[rougepierre] 17/1/2017 11:23

So you're not going to review my calculations? Don't you think it would be good for 2017 if we were in accord about some things...?

[cufes2] 17/1/2017 11:22

IIRC the grant was based on completed capital work and an audit of said work and associated invoices . . . I wonder if it is merely a coincidence that the deferred payment to the contractor is the same value expected from the grant . . .

[cufes2] 17/1/2017 11:19

We have had this discussion many times on here . . . The volume of transactions is generally irrelevant . . . It's all about supply and demand . . .

[superbobtaylor] 17/1/2017 11:14

#LLB

I am pretty sure they have some initial core results already. If they didn't how could they comment "significant copper intercepts". Lots of companies release raw results, you know the kind of thing, "one hole found 6m @1.23Cu" etc without any real context. It is all pretty meaningless but on AIM this froth all helps the share price.

'The Company expects to be generating stronger cash flows on a sustained basis by then, based on its operating budgets for 2017'. I think they could safely go a bit further than this.

SBT

[spcecks] 17/1/2017 11:10

LLB agree looks all good to me aiso.

[rougepierre] 17/1/2017 11:04

And let's be objective...

The share price rose from 125 to 160 on volume of 652,000 shares...

Its fallen back to 150 on 110,000 shares..

I also believe we will close higher today...

Meanwhile the copper price, having dipped briefly below $2.60 is back above $2.62 again...

And all the major miners are down only about 2% and recovering...

AIMHO as usual...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/1/2017 10:52

#SBT, the company can't release core and modelling results before they are known..?, they can report 'we have drilled a thousand holes', but that is meaningless without the data..

The company have commented on the likely financials, ie 'The Company expects to be generating stronger cash flows on a sustained basis by then, based on its operating budgets for 2017' ... :o)

It's all good tho', today is just a 'sell the news' event..

[rougepierre] 17/1/2017 10:47

That's fair enough CuFe. I'm delighted to hear you are bullish and I agree with you there is resistance around 165p. When we break through that I'm very optimistic.

If I can ask a favour, as you seem pretty savvy?

Could you have a look at my calculations please? As I recall, the only error I made in 4762 on 13 January was the typo where I wrote Operating Costs instead of Admin Costs. It didn't change the calculations at all and nobody queried them.

That would be mot helpful. Or anyone for that matter...

Cheers

[husbod] 17/1/2017 10:45

No mention of the Grant either, perhaps unsurprising given that this is a production update but it would be good to know if the grant is in any way related to production levels. I wonder if they will consider the receipt of the grant monies to be worthy of an RNS.

[superbobtaylor] 17/1/2017 10:31

LLB I realise all of that but I have seen plenty of companies

1. Release core results
2. Comment on likely financials before full release (see last RNS from SOM)

SBT

[cufes2] 17/1/2017 10:30

Rougepierre

Absolutely right, I am being realistic and objective IMHO . . . I'm upbeat in the sense of being a buyer based on the chart but I'm more interested in the share price movement than your (usually corrected) profit forecasts ATM . . . No one has to be upbeat because you demand it just to suit your personal agenda . . .

[spcecks] 17/1/2017 10:25

rns reads good to me.

[shortarm] 17/1/2017 10:21

Anyone else think this will rise into the close?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/1/2017 10:20

#SBT, drilling the cores is 1 thing, but analysing the samples, collating all the numbers and modelling the ore body is a lot more work, probably a year from start of drilling.., these were not reported in Q4 because the work is still on going.., maybe in April we will get an indication, but it's most unlikely to be bad..!

Any financial data takes a lot more number crunching and verifying before release, whereas the tonnages / recovery rates are relatively simple and can ten be reported 2 weeks after the Q end..

[superbobtaylor] 17/1/2017 09:52

I wish the company would have given some more details on the exploration. What sort of grades have they found? Is this open pit or underground? is this the same ore type, can it run through the current mill?

I also think they could give guidance on financials without being specific. Stuff like the below would be nice:

"We expect to make a maiden quarterly profit in Q4"
"Production costs for Q4 were further reduced from Q3"

SBT

[rougepierre] 17/1/2017 09:49

Do you mean Gross or Pretax waterloo...that number sounds a bit steep to me but I'll look again at the figures now that we have facts and Alberto's forward guidance reaffirmed...

meanwhile I calculate that there have been c25,000 buys and just under 60,000 sells today...someone has been filling up in 5,000s in the last half hour...

not entirely happy that Alberto released this on a day the copper price has fallen sharply and with not even a hint about profitable production or positive cashflows...deliberate or naive...?

so ironically, having bid 155 or even higher for 10s of thousands of stock in the last few days the MMs have been able to buy in their last 25,000 at an average of less than 150p...must seem like Christmas...I wonder if there IS a big buyer around...

anyhow this all does wonders for the liquidity...

onwards and upwards...

AIMHO as usual...

cheers and GLA...

[husbod] 17/1/2017 09:47

waterloo 4880 - that's what stood out to me too. So apart from the financials in April and the Astor decision next month the big RNS for me will be the outcome of the further drilling investigations.

No reason in this RNS for this fall in the share price although the BBC would no doubt attribute it to Theresa May's speech on Brexit later today - that's what they did on the news this morning when they announced that the fall in share prices in the Far East was due to her Brexit speech. Good to see that a British PM can still shake the markets!!!!

[waterloo01] 17/1/2017 09:31

By my calculations in a full year we should be making around $50m profit. Increase the grades by releasing some of the drill results and that starts going up exponentially.

[rougepierre] 17/1/2017 09:30

And actually now I come to think of it...why run at full pop now, when you expect the copper price to be above $3 within a year or so...?