Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[superbobtaylor] 08/12/2016 12:06

Thanks tedoby2.

HAA was going to run the plant at 15mtpa so not sure what AL is playing at.... ;-)

SBT

[tedoby2] 08/12/2016 11:51

LLB FWIW I believe there is a correlation between the cu price and the share price But it's not straight line or straightforward unfortunately. I wish it was.

In terms it's relationship is the inverse of exponential which is the natural logarithmic function f(x) = ln x.

In simple terms:-

If the cu price was say $2.00/lb and the profit was $0.20 then an increase of 10% in the value i.e $.20/lb would effectively produce an increase in profit in % terms of 100%

On the other hand if the cu price was say $3.00/lb and the profit was $1.20/lb then an increase of 10% in the value i.e $.30/lb would effectively produce an increase in profit in % terms of just 25%

Where we are just now a 10% increase in the price would price of copper would increase profits by around 30%.If the figures we're given are about right

Perhaps a better way of looking at the share price values would be to consider an EPS calculation and use a reasonable P/E ratio. I personally don't like EBITDA.

I believe Alberto isn't just considering new projects.He has an expansion of PRT in his mind as well to get us to around 12mtpa throughput. The electricity supply to site is just about ok. Water supply is as pinch point as is crushing but I believe he has a plan to deal with both. I imagine CAPEX could be met out of WIP at the current cu levels and AISC's should come down naturally through economy of scale.

The options on the adjoining land weren't taken on "best value" principles and the space wasn't needed for a future tailings expansion. So I don't believe he has those in his plans at the moment. But obviously that could change if the costs were less.

Interesting times!

Not sure if any of this helps and AIMHO

GLA

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/12/2016 09:28

We have had a month selling into $2.50+ Copper tomorrow (09th), an early bonus for us to put another $6M + EBITDA in the till which will start to add up very quickly.

Great to see Copper holding up too, with every report bar 1 ..!, expecting continued upward trend in Copper, +10% equates to +50% on profits (1:5).

Using this metric, and looking for some correlation +15% on payable Copper, equates to +75% on profits, = +75% on the share price from 80p to 140p which is about where we are..?

[iankn73] 08/12/2016 09:10

you're going to end up in the sin bin RP. :-)

[rougepierre] 08/12/2016 08:42

Better than being a master baiter, as some can be... ;-)

[acamas] 08/12/2016 08:33

24p a share once upon a time so today any shares purchased at that time require a breakeven price of 720p. Can we see that happening? Who knows, but as The Chinese say "a march of 1000 miles begins by taking one step at a time"

[iankn73] 08/12/2016 08:19

In fairness it wasn't the best of introductions to the forum "no future here“ doesn't sounds as if it's stirring debate, sounds more like questioning one's investment here. So it's inevitably going to lead to a negative response. I welcome all input positive or negative in general. Anyway welcome aboard dofmeister apologies if you were offended.

[wanderer1210_0] 08/12/2016 08:14

All the copper forecast have been proven wrong recently. Can anyone show me a forecast that said copper would be $2.60 at the end of 2016?

[dofmeister] 08/12/2016 07:48

Thank you Erric. Just trying to spark a debate; I'm known locally as a Master Debater.

[erric] 08/12/2016 07:11

Ian, no need for the personal attack.
A contrary viewpoint is a valid test of our own conviction.
Dofmeister has a good track record of posting links to articles, from both sides of the copper forecast.

[rich1e] 08/12/2016 07:10

That's an improvement from credit suisse they were sub $2 in the short term not long back. They'll no doubt be wrong all the way to $4. As for ATYM, look at the performance of miners elsewhere, there's only one way this is going. A rising tide lifts all the boats and all that. Wasn’t it 24p with no AS/AAU/MP the last time that the mining sector was in vogue, a few worries there, certainly puts dividends/expansion into perspective.

[iankn73] 07/12/2016 21:49

Nobody asked you to invest here dorf. I could supply you with multiple links from respectable sources to counter the credit suisse argument, but wont bother wasting my time.

Whats your motive, trying to get a better entry price or shorting, if shorting, then at your peril as value with prevail in the end.

[dofmeister] 07/12/2016 21:22

No future here:

[rougepierre] 07/12/2016 17:52

ANTO up 8% since 30 November...we're DOWN 4%...work that out...?

Meanwhile, somebody's bought 8,000 at 138.40 after hours...

[husbod] 07/12/2016 15:48

Seems to be scaring off the punters Manfrom - a familiar tale: all miners up except one.

Not a nice copper chart this afternoon either.

[manfrom] 07/12/2016 15:24

All this talk about expansion and acquisitions looks a little premature imho. It would be good to see the share price reflect its value for a start.

[rougepierre] 07/12/2016 14:21

and the solution...for the time being...

[husbod] 07/12/2016 14:07

Off topic rouge but a potential Italian finance minister reckons the only way Italy can get out of the euro, and thereby stand any chance of growth, is if Germany leaves first. I am absolutely gobsmacked that someone on the continent has at last spotted the blindingly obvious - Germany is the problem.

[rougepierre] 07/12/2016 13:04

Funds will stop flowing into banks if Italy goes belly up...IMHO...

[husbod] 07/12/2016 12:29

Interesting bit of research there rouge.

I think I might have more faith in the Chinese analysis and would be tempted by gold and silver but my liquidity is limited atm by a property matter

Today suggests that money might now be heading into the bombed out banking sector so we need commodities prices to keep going up so as to maintain the upwards surge of GLEN etc and of course us.

Incidentally, can someone e-mail the company and find out whether we actually took up some of those options we had in the vicinity.

[rougepierre] 07/12/2016 12:05

Now here's the thing...

The copper surge started in China, where private investors and the market as a whole would like to take over global leadership from US markets...

I believe the same thing will happen in gold...

The 'rhetoric' (Bloomberg et al) is always US-centric...and if you look at Kitco for example you will only read articles by North American analysts...

Meanwhile, while US based ETFs have seen gold withdrawals since Trump won, the price of gold is at a premium locally in China and especially India...

IMHO this disconnect cannot continue...

GS has driven metals rhetoric and analysis for far too long and their trousers were taken down by the Chinese, to the extent that they had to close their copper shorts...

Gold and silver are massively shorted right now...most people are focused on record Dow closes and suddenly equities are big-time...

But the 'experts' forecast an equity collapse and a gold surge if Trump was elected (both lasted less than an hour...) and now they are all Trump-centric experts, following the momentum to do the exact opposite of what they previously recommended...

And so it happened with copper...GS and others forecast continuing drift at low prices and they were materially wrong.

Chinese PIs piled into copper and it showed up the impending supply deficit...

So, given the ETF withdrawals, the Chinese and Indian hunger for gold and the growing propensity for Shanghai to lead markets, surely it is only a matter of time before gold and silver have their turn...

So to balance the rhetoric, here is what they're saying in China, which is diametrically opposite the 'reactive' US experts' views...



Gold to retest $1050 in 2017 according to US pundits...$1500 to $1800 according to China...they're both running algorithms...who has the power...?

Meanwhile, Dr Copper is on the march...!

AIMHO as usual...

[rougepierre] 07/12/2016 11:45

Its Masa Valverde where GLEN have a major stake re CMR...

Lomero-Poyatos seems to now be owned by Kimberley Diamonds, with Winmar having an interest, but it is very close to our mine...

CMR also still has the Romerita, El Palancar, Imprevista and San Pedro concessions...the Romerita group is also not far from us...

Surely CMR is dead and won't be able to resist and therefore the hawks will circle the residual assets...?

AIMHO as usual...

[waterloo01] 07/12/2016 11:15

Unlikely they will do much before they settle with Astor (which I suspect will be on the original terms, ie pay them over 6 years). They are already earning well from us as they get a % of sales through the ongoing agreement.

[husbod] 07/12/2016 11:08

er they have already publicly stated that they are looking at other projects the details of which cannot be disclosed due to confidentiality issues. Clearly they are looking at new sites in addition to expanding PRT.

We could have an RNS on this at any time although the legalities of tying anything up in Spain could well delay any such announcement.