Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[waterloo01] 05/12/2016 08:46

We've known for awhile that AL wants to leverage their experience and skills in expanding. If they can pick the right assets it should be a very interesting ride for shareholders.

No EU collapse today!

[iankn73] 05/12/2016 08:42

I have given up trying to predict these deranged markets. Copper @ $2.67 the market rallying after last night's results in Italy and yet we seem to be the only commodity stock moving in the opposite direction. Wtf....

That's a good point wanderer.

[wanderer1210_0] 05/12/2016 08:41

Good find SBT, is there any mention of what kind of material they want to mine? Rather than being a one trick pony and dependant on Cu prices I'd like to see a little diversification. Copper now $2.67, good start to the week.

[superbobtaylor] 05/12/2016 08:24

"Lavandeira is aiming for the company to acquire another mine, or company with a mine, next year, and another the year after that. In terms of location, Europe is a priority for the group. If the company got to three mines in as many years, Lavandeira says it would then consider a main market listing in London."

[superbobtaylor] 05/12/2016 08:18

AL targeting a new mine next year and one more the year after. I think you have lost your divi bet RP.....

Hxxp://www.cityam.com/254942/atalaya-mining-transforms-original-rio-tinto-mine-tarnished

There is also an article in the times.

[waterloo01] 05/12/2016 07:33

Well coppers up!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 04/12/2016 20:32

From my understanding, the Italian banking problems will make Greece/Ireland/UK bailouts look like small beer.., the ECB wouldn't be able to cover it on it's own, 17% of their loans have defaulted.. €360BN, it's massive or equal to 20% of their GDP. All are trying to raise funding to shore up their balance sheets right now, but who's going to buy all the new equity or bonds if the look so unstable..?

By GDP, Italy has the 4th largest economy in the Eurozone, (1)Germany (2) UK (3) France (4) Italy (5) Spain..

Any further weakness in the Euro plays into our hands tho', as most of our costs are in Euro's and sell in Dollars..

[waterloo01] 04/12/2016 18:18

Italian banks will have / have issues but ECB will step in (IMO). The bigger risk was the contagion issue, and that has lessened with the Austria vote.

[iankn73] 04/12/2016 18:14

Quite possibly waterloo. Although not so sure as the Italians have the 3rd largest economy in Eurozone.

We will find out soon enough.... :-)

[waterloo01] 04/12/2016 17:18

With the defeat of the Austrian right wing (thankfully) I suspect the fall out from any Italian no vote will have less voracity.

[rougepierre] 04/12/2016 12:07

The RNS states that AL expects to be nearer to the top end...but there's also the higher grades and recovery rates...

Meanwhile a very bullish discourse on copper....

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/12/2016 12:23

Well another week selling into $2.60+ Copper for starters RP, and on Friday next week we will have had a month of it too, if Copper holds firm to year end we will have our maiden profit Q, and maiden profit year, once this is delivered and reported we will be on our way..

The Astor case is looming and we will see how this unfolds, but the fact remains we did not use senior bank debt to finance the project, we used equity fund raising, whilst this may not be in the spirit of the agreement, it remains a fact, and legal judgements are based on the facts..

I'm quietly confident, the companies lawyers must be too or we wouldn't be heading to the courts.. €53M is a lot of money to go after..!

Looking at the revised November presentation, forecasted full year 2016 production is 23-27,000 Tonnes of Copper, but with the cumulative totals so far, and Q4 looking like 10,000 Tonnes, we are going to be right at the top end of the range with 27,000 Tonnes.

[head gardener] 02/12/2016 18:11

RP, shall we give entry and exit levels and trade this share as you have, declaring your trades,lth beware of the greep.

[rougepierre] 02/12/2016 17:02

I've calculated that if copper stays at an average of $2.60 for the rest of December, the average price for Q3 would be c$2.42, giving a Gross Margin of 62 cents.

At production of 10,000 tonnes for the Quarter (using ATYM's own estimates), Gross Revenues would be $13.671 million, or 14.86 million Euros (at 1.08).

Net of say 5 million Euros that would leave say c10 million Euros PROFIT in Q4.

The loss for the first 9 months was 7.984 million, so...

That would mean ATYM would make a FULL YEAR PROFIT of c2 million Euros.

Now what would THAT do to the share price...and what happens when that realisation starts to dawn on the market over the next few months, hopefully supported by revised forecasts by Brokers...

The current consensus Broker Forecasts for 2016 is for a £10.16 million LOSS....

Take the weekend to digest that and I'm open to challenges on the maths...

Cheers

AIMHO as usual...

[rougepierre] 02/12/2016 16:36

The "All In Sustaining Costs" in the November presentation are $1.80, compared to the Resource update estimate of $2.00...

That adds an extra 20 cents for 45,000 tonnes per year for 16.5 years to profit and cashflow...

Approximately $327 million in total, which roughly equates to $125 million in Net Present Value, increasing the NPV per share from 291p to 377p...!!!

The higher copper price means that at c$2.60, we are generating 80 cents/pound of free cashflow (2.60-1.80).

That is equivalent to almost $80 million a year. EBITDA is virtually the same, so on current prices our 'running P/E ratio would be

£152.85/63.504 = 2.4 TIMES

ANTO is currently on 1,722 times, but is projected at nearly 33 TIMES for 2016 and 27 times for 2017...

THIS IS JUST NUTS!!!!!

[acamas] 02/12/2016 16:20

Looks to me as if the MM's have had a little tree shake today. I wonder how many of us they dislodged?

We are almost back to square 1 or return to Go and pay dealing fees

[manfrom] 02/12/2016 15:31

An 8p spread? Happy for you to sell and drive the share price down but it looks like they don't want you to buy at the moment. Sorry,I forgot, this is AIM!

[rougepierre] 02/12/2016 12:32

And 132 paid...

[rougepierre] 02/12/2016 12:16

Going up...129/132...130 paid...

[rougepierre] 02/12/2016 11:49

130p to buy 5,000 now...

[rougepierre] 02/12/2016 11:47

Can already sell at a profit...bid 128 for my 5,000...

[rougepierre] 02/12/2016 11:46

127/130...

price for 5,000 now 129...

going up?

[rougepierre] 02/12/2016 11:44

Enough is enough...just bought another 5,000...VED and ANTO still pretty level over the last couple of weeks...

124/128 was silly...now 126/128...I paid 127.48...maybe we're finding a level...will buy more if we go lower...

cheers

[iankn73] 02/12/2016 10:42

When are we going to find support.

I'm like you SBT steering clear of the markets until after Sundays vote.