Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[acamas] 01/12/2016 16:34

LLB,

Strange I thought 137p and then if it went below that anything in the 120's from looking at the chart putting in a support level with very little resistance in the way of buyers is very tricky

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/12/2016 16:30

#Acamas, from a technical perspective aka chartists view, it suggests a retrace and then the next leg up, I didn't trade it, but it looks like I'm in the minority..!

[waterloo01] 01/12/2016 16:28

Acamas, it's not a referendum on the EU, although might be a proxy for it, but against the status quo (sound familiar). Odd given Rensi want's to reform the system! Maybe he should do a Berlesconi and be more outrageous.

[waterloo01] 01/12/2016 16:25

Maybe but I've given up guessing either the outcome of votes nor the way the market reacts.

[acamas] 01/12/2016 16:25

LLB,

Why are you suggesting the market in ATYM wants to turn when for the last few days there are very few buyers. The sellers have the upper hand imo

[acamas] 01/12/2016 16:23

Why should Italy vote "No" it defies all logic. We are told they take so much out of the EU that like Greece to attempt to stand on there own two feet would financially be akin to walking on water.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/12/2016 16:22

I'm still holding all mine, it's just not possible that the company is worth less than the pre consolidation price of £1.42, when we didn't have a plant, let alone one working flat out at 9.5MTPA, making 42,000 Tonnes of Copper p/a, and a company spinning off $6M+ EBITDA a month cash at $2.60 Copper, with $10M worth of stockpile..

Fundamentals will win through eventually, trading swings, the chart seems to want to turn about now too @ 135p..!

Copper $2.64

[iankn73] 01/12/2016 16:19

Howdy Waterloo - I agree Europe is not the ultimate driver, still a driver none the less for copper. ATYM as an AIM stock will still get dragged down with the rest of the market though if the Italians vote NO. Even if copper moves in the opposite direction. IMO

[husbod] 01/12/2016 16:19

Can't fault the logic Iankn. I'm completely torn on the Italy question. My non-investing self wants a no vote so we can see what happens. With my investor hat on though I would prefer a yes. Seems to be too close to call and anyway all the pollsters have lost any creditability they may ever have had.

[waterloo01] 01/12/2016 16:09

Ian, understand. I sold most of my European equity funds recently for the same reason (plus the big one, France), but not ATYM as any weakness in the Euro works in our favour and Europe is not the driver for copper. IMO

Edit: Now trading at 4.4p old money!

[iankn73] 01/12/2016 16:03

I decided to sell a chunk of my shares whilst at break even as I'm concerned about this up and coming Italian Referendum on Sunday. If the Italians vote NO then this will seriously rattle the markets and it may be an opportunity to buy back in.

If I get in at a better price then great if not then I still hold a large number of shares.

I'm not comfortable with these wild swings in the share price (great when it works in your favour) at present and fear that copper has shot too far ahead of itself too soon and don't want to risk seeing the share price retrace to around the 120s.

I expected to see some support over the last number of days, disappointed to see the opposite as the share price has been drifting lower with no obvious support and the liquidity has dried up somewhat, which has really surprised me with the meteoric copper rise.

I just thought it best to play it safe, and preserve some cash for the time being.

Good luck all

[reba] 01/12/2016 15:58

No comment, considering my last 8/9 years involvement in investing in this company.
Whatever I do is wrong.
Now fighting other PI's.

[waterloo01] 01/12/2016 15:57

Good question. Guess we need to establish it first, although I thought the post consolidation price of £1.42 (?) would have been it, but you can't blame folk for booking a profit if they bought before the big rise.

It might also be helpful to put the current prices in the context of the pre-consolidation price, as it would the price at which the major shareholders bought in. 9p and 11p seem to stick in my mind (£2.70 and £3.30)

[acamas] 01/12/2016 15:55

waterloo01,

Where do you see the next support level we have dropped back from 163p with no support so far?

The daily reds do seem to be tapering off

[waterloo01] 01/12/2016 15:51

With the likes of UBS and Goldman Sachs now talking copper up on a fundamental basis, there are many institutional investors who will be much happier buying into copper stocks. Given our leverage to copper, I'd expect the price to start testing new (higher) support levels. Stock specific news over the next few months:

$8m grant receipt
Astor settlement
Higher grades (despite 20k holes, we still have little information about grades)
Announcement of 4th Q profit

By my calculations at $3.00 copper we should be producing around $90m EBITDA . What's that equate to in PE?

[acamas] 01/12/2016 15:44

reba,

I am only commenting on the point and figure chart. Maybe your timing might be a little too soon in this case. Lets hope my view is a load of codswallop then.

Can one expect a Santa rally in prices between now and Xmas and things are normally quiet for the New Year until the Tips get published. So how do you see share prices performing in that period?

[reba] 01/12/2016 15:40

Thanks Acamas
Just bought some and you go and tell people to sell.

[acamas] 01/12/2016 15:22

I am watching the point and figure chart and I see a short term fall in the shareprice. Why? Well the share price double topped at 134p then climbed into the 163p area then retraced back to 134p with no support and being more than a 50% retracement. Actually losing all the gain from the last double top. So what good news is there to come in the next month or so? If the answer is none then what will bring in buyers of this stock. Therefore I believe one should trade a portion of ones holding just in case the price drops below 120p bwdik!

[husbod] 01/12/2016 11:37

Thanks waterloo and a tick-up for the research. All very encouraging as sentiment can be almost as important as the reality and sentiment is definitely becoming more positive. I am surprised that we have stayed green so far but there just seems to be a drop off in interest in the share. Can't go up if no-one is buying.

[scargs] 01/12/2016 11:32

waterloo01

What a super UBS post.

Thank you for sharing.

Copper @ $3.00/lb sounds good for starters.

[waterloo01] 01/12/2016 11:21

From UBS: "In our opinion, the commodity backdrop is favourable going into 2017 with Chinese (and US) demand likely to be robust due to the government transitions/ fiscal stimulus. We also believe the backdrop for the mining sector is positive as even without material commodity price upside, the majority of the industrial miners generate strong free cash flow (greater than 10% FCF yield) and have the potential to lift shareholder returns in 2017/18. We do however believe the risk/ reward differs materially between the commodities, with iron ore & coal prices set to fall from elevated levels as supply steps up, while copper, zinc & nickel increase as deficits emerge/ increase. As a result, we expect 2017 to be a commodity & stock-picking year. The UBS commodity team lifts its 2017 copper forecast by 30% to $3.00/lb "

[head gardener] 01/12/2016 10:53

The m/m's are not enticing buying at 1.40, bookbuilding? Red Rock Resources are having a good day after their results, the ceo's statement is worth reading as it is applicable to the whole of the commodity sector.

[jwafc] 01/12/2016 10:52

cheers llb, seems plausible.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/12/2016 10:39

#jwafc, all I could think of was that the Silver credits @ $18.50/Oz, which is was, added up to more than the impurity penalties creating a +..