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Asos Share Price - ASC

Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Asos Plc LSE:ASC London Ordinary Share GB0030927254 ORD 3.5P
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -61.00 -1.89% 3,166.00 3,157.00 3,164.00 3,253.00 3,112.00 3,240.00 448,200 16:35:15
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m) RN NRN
General Retailers 1,150.8 47.5 44.4 71.3 2,641.39

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Date Time Title Posts
18/11/201509:47ASOS----Fast Celebrity Fashion Online ----13,794
16/3/201511:49ASOS TAKEOVER3
28/11/201419:35Black Friday - Get a discount on an ASOS imitator #ASC-
09/11/201415:56ebay bids on asos-

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bobsidian: From a technical perspective ASC is proving a very interesting performer. If you overlay Fibonacci banding for the period from the intraday low in early 2012 to the intraday peak in late February 2014 you can see the way the share price of ASC is being moved down through that banding. The tumble on March 18 hit the base intraday of a 38.2% retracement before moving back up to treat the 21.4% retracement as the ceiling. Thereafter the share price was moved back down to test the supportive nature of the 38.2% retracement. The last couple of trading sessions has seen the share price plunge down to hit the 50% retracement level before ricocheting back up perhaps to test the 38.2% level. If this pattern of trading behaviour plays out it would not be surprising to see the ASC share price moved down to around the £35 level over the course of the next couple of weeks or so. Given the earnings growth of ASC such a share price level may represent an interesting medium term entry point. But we all know how fickle equity markets can be and in particular just how fickle AIM can be. What was once in favour can be quickly savaged : 8 months worth of share price growth in ASC stripped out in little more than 1 month. And true to form the brokers who were championing ASC to such share price extremes have largely gone silent in the midst of this correction.
bobsidian: Even at these comparatively subdued share price levels ASC is probably trading on a current P/E (Financial Year 13/14) of 50+ and at a share price of £12 ASC will probably be trading on a current P/E of around 30. It is hard to see how ASC can do anything other than disappoint when it announces its full year results in October. But as always it is forward guidance that counts. And visibility on the new higher ongoing cost base arising out of capacity expansion coupled with clarity on the impact on earnings of the weakened Euro relative to Sterling may aid in stabilising the share price of ASC. But the paradox for ASC may be that the faster its pace of growth overseas, the greater may be the impact on conversion/translation of overseas earnings as Sterling strengthens to reflect the relative and comparative improvement in the UK economy. It would not be surprising to see the management of ASC contemplate a future change in its reporting currency to reflect the bias of its earnings generation. Regardless, the share price of ASC is entering interesting territory as it is moved down toward the £18-£19 range where I suspect there will be a volatile reaction to the current descent.
greek islander: 110 PE - this stock has been considerably higher in the past. It is interesting how so many negative comments post about this but the PE is more than justified and though the share price is at a low ebb for this 6 last months I see no reason to panic. ASC interim reports have always produced a drop in the share price - sometimes dramatic partly because of the high price per share and partly because expectation here is so exceptional. Growth has been around or above 38-39% to date. When such a large company expands fast in the early few years the growth rate and the pe will be expected to pull back a little. I see no demons here and whilst I fully appreciate Donaferentes' reluctance to buy in at £52 (after all the current liklihood is that upward share price progress for a while will be slow) I am convinced that as the proverbial long term investment one must take advantage of dips in the share price to add. Been a bad day for us but hardly the huge disaster indicated by the share price
bobsidian: Difficult to tell in which direction the share price will go today. Much depends on the time horizon being adopted by equity market participants.
bobsidian: As far as being "bullish", those who are aware of my posting history would be quick to suggest otherwise. And as far as branding is concerned I would certainly not hold myself out to be an expert in that field. I can quite appreciate certain suppliers being upset about finding their brands being sold too cheaply, not least because the savvy consumer would migrate to the retailer selling that product at the lowest available price. However, it depends what you mean by a "premium" brand. It would be erroneous to suggest that ASOS only stock "premium" brands or that the customer base of ASOS are only drawn to "premium" brands. There does also seem to be a bit of a paradox in play. The management of ASC have reduced guidance on achievable operating margins. Are you suggesting that by acceding to the demands of suppliers on selling price that ASC will achieve higher operating margins than guided at the expense of sales growth ? Doubtless you are, given your assessment on just how overvalued you believe ASC to be. Be in no doubt, I am not "blindly" bullish on ASC. I too am of the view that ASC is overvalued relative to the headwinds it faces. However, experience has taught me to be wary of a share price trend when there appears to be an aggressive consensus on its continuation. All too often news flow has a habit of making a mockery out of such consensus.
donaferentes: By Edmond Jackson | Thu, 23rd October 2014 - 23:00 Edmond Jackson's Stockwatch: ASOS is meat for long and short traders Is a high price/earnings (P/E) multiple destined to "revert to the mean"? A dilemma with the most successful and promising businesses is stockmarket expectations running very high - so when challenges creep in there is an inevitable de-rating. No business grows even at 20% a year forever (does anyone recall the pitfall of Rentokil's chairman, "Mr 20%"?) so beware forward P/E's in the thirties and higher. Certainly very few businesses can sustain a high P/E for a long while; even the rating for microchip behemoth ARM Holdings (ARM) is declining. If capital protection is your first goal then avoid tucking away highly-rated growth shares; but if you are alert and nimble this area offers fabulous long/short trading. The key is being attuned to change in the story. A snakes and ladders game After a very strong run to 7,050p by early 2014, the chart for the AIM-listed shares in online fashion retailer ASOS (ASC) plunged to 1,785p - currently about 2,200p - as various factors conflated for profit warnings. Even after a 70%+ drop the stock trades near 50 times forecast earnings albeit possibly under 1.5 times revenues. Mind any relationship between the two simply reflects industry margins, i.e. a less-demanding price/sales ratio is to be expected here. ASOS- financial summary Consensus estimate Year ended 31 Aug 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 to 31 Mar to 31 Mar to 31 Mar Turnover (£m) 223 340 495 769 975 IFRS3 pre-tax proft (£m) 20.3 15.7 30.3 54.7 46.9 Normalised pre-tax profit (£m) 20.3 28.7 40.9 55 45.9 56.7 IFRS3 earnings/share (p) 18.7 13.7 26.7 49.2 44.5 Normalised earnings/share (p) 18.7 30 39.4 49.5 51 42.9 54.4 Earnings/share growth rate (%) 41 60.6 31.1 74.5 -16 26.8 Price/earnings multiple (x) 43.3 51.5 40.6 Cash flow per share (p) 14.8 20.3 49 90.6 Capex per share (p) 11.6 34.6 28.4 38.3 Net tangible assets per share (p) 55.2 81.9 97.2 145 Source: Company REFS. Still, according a high P/E though, the market assumes ASOS can raise overall margins once it is established as a truly global business. The chief executive Nick Robertson has made plain, "We are in a period of major investment that comes at a short-term cost but the medium-term benefits will be significant." The stockmarket dynamics here may also reflect a bandwagon effect where ASOS was seen as one of the prettiest faces in a Keynesian beauty contest, as excitement rose in the 2012/13 "QE3" period of loose monetary policy. My Stockwatch pieces include many examples of stocks consolidating in 2014; but ASOS had become so highly valued it was subject to a reversal and new self-reinforcing trend on the downside as various setbacks attracted short sellers and shareholders’ stop-losses kicked in. Top executive director opts to buy heavily Besides a 27% revenue rise for the financial year to end-August 2014 a key development likely to arrest the downtrend in the short term is the recent finance director – now chief operating officer - splashing out half a million pounds buying shares at 2,249.6p, taking his stake to 149,944 shares or £3.373 million worth. That's a serious buy from the person who above all should know ASOS' numbers and operations intimately; who is increasing his already high financial risk of a focused exposure to one business. It's no guarantee and may involve some animal spirits; but it must imply a longer-term rationale. Thrust of the long-term "buy" case It takes some speculative leap of faith, but this business could be in a very strong global position, three to five years hence. It has already achieved a loyal following among 20-somethings who become 30-something customers: the group's websites are attracting 71.2 million visits a month and at end-August had 8.1 million active users - up from 7.1 million a year before - with 3.4 million located in the UK and 5.4 million internationally. That means sterling's recent strength partly explains annual pre-tax profit down 14% to £46.9 million as it forced discounting, especially in Australia. The range of inventory is a competitive advantage and any rival will struggle to offer and sustain the likes of £161.5 million inventories (end-August balance sheet). ASOS range has expanded to over 800 brands alongside its own, and there is a wide range of sizes. The website itself is quite a competitive advantage akin to a fashion magazine able to attract customers without incurring expensive advertising. Delivery arrangements are attractive with free standard delivery on orders over £15 and free next-day delivery by 10pm over £100 otherwise £5.95 cost. Altogether these factors helps establish quite a moat around the business and it is hard to imagine main UK rivals - Next (NXT)/Littlewoods - encroaching; or indeed any new entrant replicating ASOS' extent of supplier relationships and stock on a profitable basis. So you are not going to see an Aldi/Lidl type incursion like in supermarkets. Indeed Zalando, founded in Germany in 2008, has in the last three years spent over £315 million equivalent establishing itself across Europe, meanwhile ASOS has enjoyed a pre-tax return on capital employed of about 30%. Entering new markets also requires little fixed investment as they can be serviced from the UK initially. The aim to become a leading global fashion destination by 2020, with £2.5 billion sales compared with about £1 billion currently; and if that follows then undoubtedly a premium P/E multiple will apply. But roughly how high is justified? Current rating still leaves no room for setbacks The 2020 sales target implies ballpark EPS of 150p i.e. at least five years before the P/E multiple reduces to the low/mid teens - the rating Next shares have been established on for the last five years (and still achieved a bull run from 1,800p over 7,200p). So, in theory ASOS is liable to trend in a volatile-sideways trend with its 2012/13 blow-off a curiosity of monetary expansion. In practice the story is going to dictate the trend. For example, there needs to be no more significant price-cuts beyond what have been needed to clear excess stock and deal with currency differentials, otherwise margins hence the rating will be affected. This is quite a risk if signs grow internationally, of deflation and low economic growth. More positively, young people may continue to resort to fashion as a pep-up despite tough times, like the trend for personal fitness has boosted sports-gear sales. January 2015 trading statement will set any near-term trend Buyers are taking some leap of faith in this becoming an Amazon-style, global business with an enduringly high P/E. That's possible, but after a few warnings and a share price debacle, the market is likely to seek more proof. The stock looks likely to trade sideways until a four-month trading statement in mid-January 2015; potentially meat either way for long/short traders.
taurusthebear: So, to summarise the past fortnight's posts: "The share price is going to bounce at XXXXp, it's over/under-valued, there's going to be a takeover/2nd profit warning/another warehouse fire, and Goldman Sachs, that doyen of blue-chip brokers, have lessened their bullish stance as the share price has declined". It's all hearsay, of course, and BS at the same time. The only factual thing that can be said is that, given that ALL ELSE REMAINS EQUAL, the lower the share price goes, the better value ASC becomes. :0)
bobsidian: There is no doubt that it is becoming increasingly difficult for short sellers to push the share price of ASC lower and for the share price to remain low. According to the chart the current move lower suggests a further mini leg down before the share price stages another of its rebounds.
darias: One always has to have a reason to buy a stock. Price is one of the reasons obviously however it cannot be the be all and end all. The stock is trading at 84x its share price. Does not pay a dividend and is open to real competition, if only from longer players in the game e.g. amazon. Amazon do not just sell books and records where they started but now into other situations and I can seem them getting into clothing at some time. Asos were reliant on the youth sector which is notoriously fickle. I just cannot see a reason to buy at the moment and, it seems, most people agree with me. Even telbap has taken profit.
jeffcranbounre: Asos is mentioned in today's (30/12/14) ADVFN podcast. To listen click here> http://bit.ly/ADVFN0097 Also in today's podcast: - Francis Hunt otherwise known as The Market Sniper trader @TheMarketSniper technical analyst and teacher will be talking about the oil price, Asos and BHP Billiton. - And the micro and macro news including: BP #BP. Royal Dutch Shell #RDSB Bhp Billiton #BLT Asos #ASC Camco Clean Energy #CCE Horizon Discovery #HZD Vernalis #VER Capital & Regional #CAL Persimmon #PSN Next #NXT Kibo Mining #KIBO Nanoco #NANO Port Erin Biopharma Investments #PEBI BG Group #BG. Provexis #PXS Tesco #TSCO TalkTalk #TALK Vodafone #VOD LED International #LED Every Tuesday is Ten Bagger Tuesday on the podcast. If you know of a stock, whose share price has the potential to increase ten fold, just click the link below. Ten Bagger Tuesday (All it involves is filling out a form that will take you around 5 minutes and you don't personally appear on the podcast). Once a week, on a Friday, I feature a tip from a listener to this podcast, if you'd like to suggest a stock click the link below: Suggest a stock (Again all it involves is filling out a form that will take you around 5 minutes and you don't personally appear on the podcast). You can subscribe to this podcast in iTunes by clicking HERE To follow me on Twitter click HERE As a listener to the ADVFN podcast you can take advantage of some exclusive first year discounts on popular subscriptions: Bronze - £50 (normally £73.82/year) Silver - £145 (normally £173.71/year) Level 2 - £350 (normally £472.94/year) Call 0207 0700 961 and ask for the ADVFN Podcast discount to take advantage of these reduced rates or just CLICK HERE for more information. Please DO NOT buy any stock recommended in this podcast basely solely on what you hear. The opinions in this podcasts are just that, opinions. Please do you own research before investing. Justin    

Asos Most Recent Trade

Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Trade Date Trade Time Currency
O 3,518 3,169.08 24 Nov 2015 17:12:40 GBX

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