Asian Citrus Share Discussion Threads

[diku] 19/5/2016 13:47

spob...it could well be a case of punters are easily mugged in the AIM market!!...

[spob] 19/5/2016 01:40

I don't take pleasure in others losses.


For furure reference people must think long and hard why companies based thousands of miles away in foreign lands would choose to list on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.

These companies have access to stock markets in their home countries. If their companies were viable they would have no problem raising funds at home.

If something looks too good to be true, then it probably isn't true.

Enough said

[cpap man] 18/5/2016 13:55

Good buy no good sell

[diku] 18/5/2016 13:54

Is this kaput?...

[cockerhoop] 18/5/2016 11:38

Varies,

Sorry to hear that.

I genuinely believe the company is being managed down to zero cash with the constant negative news flow. At some point it will de-list from AIM or fold completely but whatever the outcome there will be no payout for UK investors.

I'm slightly surprised the share price has held up as well as it has today. It almost feels to me the directors are playing a game - seeing who can dream up the most preposterous story to feed to investors whilst they suck the cash out through dodgy fertilizer/pesticide deals and related party transactions.

[varies] 18/5/2016 11:21

The news about Hunan I find hard to believe; I had high expectations of it.
I could not have been more wrong about this share, having failed to take big profits several years ago and compounded my error by doubling up twice at much reduced prices.
Congratulations to those of you here whose judgment has been fully vindicated.
Whether one should bale out now is another matter. As Rupe says, we do not yet know what the cash position will be after shelling out for these debacles.

[rupe1958] 18/5/2016 10:38

The cash cost of closing Hunan isn't clear to me. £135m approx total costs including impairments to goodwill.

Given that the company had about £55m in cash at Dec 31st, and that was shrinking fast, it's important to know what the cash cost of the latest debacle is going to be.

The market reaction is surprisingly calm. Perhaps the reasoning is that the remaining cash will cover the termination of Hunan and the concentrate business will be sold for more than the current market cap.

[piedro] 18/5/2016 10:09

WOW !!!

- you can’t get much more stupid than that!!

- change of BoD please.

[yf23_1] 18/5/2016 10:07

Classic - a citrus company that doesn't know how to grow oranges !

They should get into the manure business, they're good at selling that.

...impairment losses for assets, provisions and terminations costs relating to the cessation of operation of Hunan Plantation of approximately RMB1,352 million will be required

[rupe1958] 18/5/2016 09:56

This looks like seriously bad news. The prospect of Hunan coming on line after 8 or 9 years of expensive investment in nearly 2 million trees was one of the few things to feel cheerful about at ACHL.

Turns out that it's too cold in Hunan to grow citrus and the whole plantation is being abandoned.

The leaves us with Hepu and the concentrates business, neither of which is currently making money.

[cockerhoop] 18/5/2016 09:43

More negative (probably made up!) news regards Hunan

[varies] 24/4/2016 15:44

I have just had a glance at the web-site recently up-dated.
No reference that I could find to Xinfeng. This may have been brushed out of the web-site but I wonder if ACHL has residual obligations under the terms of its tenure of the land. If, as I suppose, they held it on some form of lease from the Chinese state, then they may be obliged to return it cleared of dead trees and other debris.
I read somewhere that no land is held freehold in China but this may be wrong.
As for Hunan, first production is now expected in 2017.
As a very stale bull, who has missed every chance to sell, I remain a stubborn holder waiting for better times.

[targatarga] 21/4/2016 13:11

brown envolopes...

[my retirement fund] 21/4/2016 13:08

Perhaps they need to up their spend on fertilizers a tad more.

[rupe1958] 21/4/2016 13:01

So a total summer orange crop of 16,370 tonnes in H2, at maybe £325 per tonne = c.£5.32m revenue in H2 from sale of oranges, against costs from the plantation side of at least £20m.

We have to assume there is no summer orange or grapefruit crop from Hunan.

Only 2 years ago the company was producing over 50k tonnes of summer oranges from Hepu.

Unless the concentrates business does a lot better than in H1, it looks like we are heading for a further core loss of around £15m in H2, which would leave net cash at around £40m.

It would be good to know what management's plan is here.

[hosede] 06/4/2016 13:46

or the end of global climate change

[piedro] 31/3/2016 14:48

At least they are consistent

- waiting for new management.

[sleveen] 30/3/2016 17:25

Profits are juiced.

Financials worsen from orange to red.

All hope squashed.

[jimcar] 13/3/2016 22:43

The output from Hunan is not expected to be much this year. The first crops from citrus trees is only in the fifth year and is at a low level. It takes several more years to achieve full output. If you look at the age of trees in the different plantations in the 2015 annual report the first batch of orange trees is only just reaching five this year.

[rupe1958] 13/3/2016 22:04

I could see very little forward-looking comment in the report (apart from the surprising reference by the chairman to the company looking for acquisitions) so I don't think we should read too much into there being no mention of Hunan.

[morro] 13/3/2016 16:26

Another thing of concern appears to be the omission of any mention of production at Hunan. Last year the first crop was mentioned to be coming in 2016. This has been deleted.

[rupe1958] 12/3/2016 21:00

Morro - yes, that's really something to brighten up the weekend. I'm finding it difficult to admire Mr Ng Nong Nee at the moment.

The only encouraging thing I can see in the whole half year report is that the headcount has fallen from almost 1900 to 1073 and Direct Labour costs on the plantation side are down 45% in H1 from 2014 to 2015.That suggests there has been a serious attempt to cut costs.

Amazingly, they managed to spend 31% more on pesticides in H1 2015 than in H1 2014, and then closed Xinfeng. They seem to have thrown money at the problem before belatedly deciding to close the plantation down

The costs on the fruit processing business jumped by about £11m in the 6 months from July-Dec, and the business lost money. Not great. The bought-in fruit cost them a lot more, but that may have been beyond their control. It will be interesting to see whether they can get this business back to profit in the next 6 months. It's vital to the company's survival.

It's not easy to estimate costs or revenues over the next 6 months. Perhaps 40k tonnes production of oranges/grapefruit from combined Hepu and Hunan. Combined income from fruit processing and fruit sales should be around £45m.

It will be a challenge to get costs down to that level although there is definitely scope for cost reductions on the plantations side (I won't be surprised to see fertiliser and pesticide costs fall by around 50%). But another core loss in H2 looks inevitable, albeit on a much smaller scale than in H1.

[morro] 12/3/2016 12:37

Good to see the Executive Directors paying themselves double last years amount!!!!