Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 23/10/2017 21:28

Thanks Ian.Can't say that my spread betting strategy has exactly gone to plan - opened positions (long) in shares I would buy and hold with a view to closing once in profit to the equivalent of 20% of what a non-leveraged holding would actually be, unfortunately half have gone against me and been stopped out! (either setting my stops too tight or picking dogs! Lol).Will keep trying........he who dares wins...and all that!.All the best.DD

[ianwwwhite] 23/10/2017 20:22

Good evening DD

Spread betting? Whatever floats your boat, and it sounds like you have developed a well considered approach.

I have no problem with the use of shorting or using other derivatives ... it's just not appropriate for me. I wish you luck!

[fenners66] 23/10/2017 19:18

I think that shorting is fine. It is no different to selling shares because you have made a profit and think the share has reached the top. When you sell a share at the top of its run , just as it turns around and drops 15% do you shed a tear for the poor fellow (mug) who bought them off you?

Do you secretly (or perhaps not so secretly) gloat that you got that one right and then wonder if it falls back some more will it be a buying opportunity?

No one cares that, that fall may have triggered the stop loss of the fellow that bought them off you.

The biggest case of shorting I have seen is Carillion where over 20% of the shares were shorted - mostly from over £3 whilst the company continued to preach in their glossy huge accounts book that everything was fine.

Shorters took very large positions on the basis that they knew more about the business than the directors did.
Not that they knew more about the share price prospects or that they could influence them - but that the business was a basket case despite the directors reassurances.

The FD reported everything was fine at the AGM and 2 months later announced £850m of write offs !

Suddenly the share price then collapsed and the shorters were in serious money - but they took the same ( arguably greater risks) than the longs and it paid off. Sure the share price had a gentle decline during the last 2 years - but its was the announcement that the truth was out and 5 years profits were mistaken that killed the share price and the holders.

Since that incident I have added short tracker to my browser favourites and I will now check the short position prior to any buys. I had been wondering about buying some CLLN I am seriously glad I didn't.

[discodave4] 23/10/2017 19:08

Just to put my two pennies worth!Personally have no problem with shorting.bracke - ...."so the system self regulates"Not too certain about that, my AHT shares are in a nominee account so they could (from what I've read) be loaned out for shorting without me even knowing it, let alone authorising it.Ian - I do use spread bets to hold a share for short term trades but only those with no yield - why not use someone else's capital to realise an investment that would otherwise require a lot more of my own money (always use stops!).DD

[bracke] 23/10/2017 16:27

kilgallp


"I don't know how long you've been involved with Ashtead?"
===========================================================

Too long. Soon after the financial irregularity.



"Shorters are banking on companies collapsing"
==============================================

No they are not. They are trading on the basis that the share price will drop.

If a share price drops too far buyers will come in and take it back up.

Shorters are rather like predators they 'take out' the weak. Remember the banks. They were shorted because they had got themselves into a mess. When heavy shorting takes place odds on it's deserved.

Remember naked shorting is not permitted, the number of shares shorted have to be borrowed from a holder so the system self regulates.

Shorting often concentrates the minds of Directors who have rested on their laurels for too long into action.

[kilgallp] 23/10/2017 16:12

Bracke, 'On that basis a 'bad' share would never drop.', I can't agree with that. Share prices drop without any shorting being required. I don't know how long you've been involved with Ashtead? I had shares in them years ago, when they announced some financial irregularities, the price plummeted, I lost a lot of money. I said at the time I'd never invest in them again! Fortunately, I went back on that, and I'm glad to say, I have recovered my loss and more.

I invest in companies which I think have a good story and I hope will go from strength to strength. I see that as a positive move.

Shorters are banking on companies collapsing, and their action helps drag the company down. To my mind it's a negative action.

[bracke] 23/10/2017 15:26

Good day fenners

Although I agree with your 'percent' comment, the rewards for a long derivative trade are surely better than holding the shares.

[fenners66] 23/10/2017 13:21

There is potentially more risk shorting Bracke. A short can get to 100% profit, but a share can rise many times that , so it can lose much more unchecked and the rewards for holding shares can be much higher

[ianwwwhite] 23/10/2017 13:03

Bracke

Lol! I prefer to live vicariously, reading the posts of others. It's part of my get rich extremely slowly philosophy....

[bracke] 23/10/2017 12:56

Come now ian where is your spirit of adventure!

[ianwwwhite] 23/10/2017 12:52

Bracke

Do you use derivatives eg. sbet, cfd, options to buy shares?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Are you mad??? Lol! None of the above....

Indeed I now have only four remaining direct shareholdings, and have outsourced the remainder of my modest share portfolio to mutual fund managers I trust, e.g. Smith, Train, Woodford, and Burnett for example. (no advice intended).

I am reading Michael Lewis's 'The Big Short' at the moment and it's safe to say I won't be buying any CDSs or CDOs in the future either. 😂😂

[bracke] 23/10/2017 12:18

ian

I understand your comment about risk and reward but there is as much risk when buying shares.

I know that you buy and hold shares. Do you use derivatives eg. sbet, cfd, options to buy shares?

[ianwwwhite] 23/10/2017 11:51

Good morning bracke and kilgallup,

To be clear, I have nothing against 'shorting' but it is just not for me. The balance of risk and reward is not acceptable, and the implicit time-boxing does not fit my relaxed style.

By any definition, 'shorting' differs from 'selling' a share, as you well know!

However I welcome shorters involvement in the market, after all, someone's got to be on the other side of the trade :-)

[bracke] 23/10/2017 11:24

Good day kilgallp

On that basis a 'bad' share would never drop.

Shorting is selling a share. You sell shares don't you?

[kilgallp] 23/10/2017 11:02

Well Bracke, I'm with Ian on this one. I disagree in principle with shorting, and will never short, even if it means losing out on some financial gain.

[bracke] 23/10/2017 10:30

Good day ian

I know there are those who consider it 'wrong' to short a share but if a share is overpriced because it has risen too far or there is a major problem surely shorting is a proper measure to bring the share price to a correct level.

The media never miss an opportunity to make a mountain out of a mole hill.

I was most annoyed after clearing out the under stairs cupboard and spending most of the weekend there.

[ianwwwhite] 22/10/2017 15:02

Good afternoon bracke,

'Get thee behind me satan' springs to mind.

Although I am interested to understand a little more about TA in as much as it may indicate future price movements, you may be disappointed to learn that I never short per se. I will occasionally trim back my AHT holdings when the price is attractive, and occasionally buy a few back if I feel a lower price justifies it.

As to whether we have seen an Exhaustion or a Closing gap, when you twisted my arm I ventured an opinion, but would not dream of betting on it. It's not the way we sloth investors work!

[bracke] 22/10/2017 12:42

Good day ian

It was more than a stiff breeze but did not take the roof off

Looking at the chart the share price is at the cusp. Another attempt at breaking above the ML at 1920 or a retrace.

I know you are still thinking Exhaustion Gap. If it is you should be shorting.

[discodave4] 21/10/2017 11:25

Hopefully some 'trump trades' for AHT:hTTp://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/20/us-senate-chops-key-obstacle-trump-tax-reforms/DD

[ianwwwhite] 21/10/2017 11:00

'Brian'?

Probably only a stiff breeze, these prima donna weather forecasters are often prone to exaggeration in my experience. :-)

[bracke] 20/10/2017 19:17

'Brian' may prevent that!

[ianwwwhite] 20/10/2017 19:06

Good day bracke,

Thanks. Have a great weekend!

[bracke] 20/10/2017 18:11

Good day ian

Remember it had a gap to fill which it did but has not moved further down so far. Plus I also posted that it was hard up against the ML (1920) which will require 'pressure' to push through.

[ianwwwhite] 20/10/2017 15:45

Bracke,

If that wasn't an exhaustion gap yesterday, AHT certainly seems to be suffering from depression today!

A pretty lacklustre performance so far..