Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[ianwwwhite] 09/8/2017 09:42

fenners

I expect the Clontarf boys love it really, it probably takes their minds off watching their moribund shares :-)
.

[fenners66] 08/8/2017 22:04

Just bought Shell after catching the CEO on Bloomberg on results morning - if I recall correctly he said something about $10bn free cash flow after reducing costs and I thought that might be enough to pay me a dividend!

Up about 5% since.

Bracke yes upsetting the Clontarf mob followers - they don't have much of a sense of humour either!

[discodave4] 08/8/2017 19:10

Thanks Ian and bracke.Just checked my spreadsheet and for this current tax year AHT is down 2.5%, only have one other holding that is negative over that period and that's an oiler! (down 30% but still in profit).That said AHT has the largest return / profit since I've held but have been holding over 5 years.Gone crab like for a while now....not me!, AHT.Will see what happens but if doesn't break out of this range then will consider taking some off the table.DD

[bracke] 08/8/2017 16:50

OK Own up!! Who sold at the close?

Very underhanded. Perhaps we need look no further than one who has been 'dissing' our 'precious' of late.

Anyone got a horse whip!!

[ianwwwhite] 08/8/2017 14:58

Good day disco,

Perhaps a better yardstick would be to compare AHT with your other current shareholdings rather than the FTSE - I wonder if AHT is your worst performer?

In the meantime 1670 seems to be a bit of a speed bump at present, support or resistance, I am looking forward to seeing which way it breaks..

[bracke] 08/8/2017 10:10

Good day Disco

If you look at that link now which is real time you will see that they were nearly equal this morning.

[discodave4] 07/8/2017 19:06

Thanks bracke."Ref comparison of AHT & FTSE see link below there is little in it."FTSE +5%, AHT +2%, suppose it depends on you're definition of "little", but less than half the FTSE increase is in my view more than a little!, particularly given AHT previous gains/momentum.DD

[bracke] 07/8/2017 17:14

Above average volume and closes above 1660.

Now needs to 'punch up' through 1670 and on towards the sunny uplands of 1700 plus.

[bracke] 07/8/2017 11:07

fenners

The £/$ has fallen over Thursday and Friday perhaps that's why the share price rose?

[fenners66] 04/8/2017 22:29

£ has strengthened vs $ so that does not help.

Roll on next set of results though with last year's acquisitions hopefully bedding in...

[discodave4] 04/8/2017 22:16

"Its ok Dave - just make it up - we do"It's clear you don't, truly impressed by the knowledge on this board.........even our resident TA guru!, only joking bracke.Anyway, been having thoughts of selling up here, or at least taking profits..........just seems to have lost it's mojo over the past 6 months or so, it's not kept up with the FTSE100 despite very good results in June, so what's up? (okay beating URI but even so!).DD

[fenners66] 04/8/2017 20:32

"when the share price goes to 1550." How dare you say when !!?

[bracke] 04/8/2017 19:02

Good day ian

There is the 'noise' ie. the daily ups and downs which are really only of interest to
day traders and intra-day traders. Then there is the 'serious' ie. the price changes which matter to longer term holders.

In the year to date chart link below longer term holders are likely to become agitated if the share price closed below 1550. Yes it did spike below 1550 on a couple of occasions but it quickly pulled back so no harm done.

It seems to me the biggest threat to AHT is unlikely to come from within the company but from the US market.

So forget the 'noise' and watch what happens when the share price goes to 1550.

[ianwwwhite] 04/8/2017 17:32

Good volume and nice rising trend this afternoon. That's more like it!

But are we seeing an emerging lower highs and lower lows trend forming like before? Only time will tell. (and possibly bracke, our resident soothsayer who understands these things).

Never mind the weekend is here, have a good one all :-)
.

[fenners66] 03/8/2017 23:17

Its ok Dave - just make it up - we do

[fenners66] 03/8/2017 21:25

ian looks like a good find - a bit heavy handed anyone found if the existing loan notes are traded?

[ianwwwhite] 03/8/2017 20:44

Hi Fenners

It looks like they are making an offer you can't refuse! This small extract from the Ashtead Capital Inc Offer to Purchase document:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
We currently intend to exercise our right to call for redemption any and all Notes not tendered in the Offer at the redemption price of 103.25% of their face amount, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but not including, the date of redemption. We may provide such notice as early as the Settlement Date.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Lots more detailed info in the Offer to Purchase document 33 pages (!) which can be found at:


However we will know the result in a little over a week, so given that AHT has done this sort of transaction before, I am content to await the outcome.

[fenners66] 03/8/2017 19:45

What I don't get is how they can offer 3.5% and then get away with a market rate of 4.25% to replace it.

If the market rate of the debt is say 4.3% then if its traded on a five year redemption basis the current value should be about 109 per 100 ( or 1090 per 1000 !)

E.g. As is 5 x 6.5% = 32.5
Redemption 100

Return over 5 years 132.5

But that is at 6.5% (simple interest calc)

To get the same return at say 4.3%

buy the debt for 109

receive interest 32.5
redemption 100
But loss on buying - 9

Net return 123.5

Then 23.5/109/5 = 4.3%

So if market value is 109 or 1090 per $1000 why tender at 1035.5 ?

[ianwwwhite] 03/8/2017 18:01

Hi fenners,

Thanks for your clarification, appreciated.
.

[fenners66] 03/8/2017 17:24

Apologies guys I got so caught up in the numbers I read the 35.5 dollars as per 100 & deemed it the five years redemption yield.

My error it is only 3.5% not 35% !

So they are getting out at a premium cost but not the expense I had calculated.
But I then question what is the market value of the loan notes?

Will anyone take them up on it?

[bracke] 03/8/2017 17:08

2flat

I don't want you to become too excited about what follows so just keep calm.

The share price has so far failed to make it to the red ML but it did retrace down exactly 62% from the high on 21 July and the low on 07 July.

I am early in drawing an ascending PF which places a ML at approx 1706/1710.

Possible flies in ointment are:

1 Fails to hold above 1630, slips back and continues down to red ML.

2 Continues up but has insufficient pressure to move above 1660.

As always in Elite Guru fashion I will take full credit if the new ML is reached and point to my two caveats if it doesn't.

[ianwwwhite] 03/8/2017 16:11

2flatpack,

Lol! You and I both!!!
.

[2flatpack] 03/8/2017 15:55

Thanks ian ,
Missed that .
Problem is this bankers talk is turning my brain to muss (whats left of it).
cheers