Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 10/4/2017 13:02

I was trying to post a chart but not to be.

[bracke] 04/4/2017 17:03

Holding in Company

Harris Associates LP - Reduction of Indirect 703,149 from 5.08% to 4.98%.

[bracke] 04/4/2017 14:20

The share price continues to faff about at the s/r zone.

My shorting finger is becoming restless so I dipped it in hot water as a reminder.

Following the intra day high on 02 March of 1764 the share price has posted two lower highs and one lower low. Irrespective of trading/investing tactics these three price actions are negative.

[discodave4] 03/4/2017 19:03

Thanks Ian.Still non the wiser as to your interpretation of "real value", so as you say, will forget it!.All the best anyway.DD

[ianwwwhite] 03/4/2017 16:05

Bracke,

Lol!!
.

[bracke] 03/4/2017 15:44

ian

My understanding is that AHT does little residential business but it does appear to receive 'reflected benefit' from residential data.

Rather like the Army don't volunteer, so goeth negative comments about 'precious'. Having made that comment the reaction on this thread is very mild. Elsewhere it does become vitriolic even to threats. I was going to offer (for a price) details of fenners location to the BOD fraternity but thought better of it.....fenners may decide to visit me.

[ianwwwhite] 03/4/2017 15:26

Hi bracke,

Well at least I know you read my posts!

Thanks for the link, I believe I am right in saying that 'residential' was deemed not to impact AHTs performance in the past, although I stand to be corrected.

I won't venture an opinion on AHT price, I keep ending up with 500 word essays as punishment!

.

[ianwwwhite] 03/4/2017 15:02

Good afternoon bracke
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
One has to be very careful not to confuse thinking with opinion. Opinion is pointless unless it is based on evidence. I 'think' that I would not buy or sell AHT until it deals with the s/r it is currently resting on.

"Real value" is an imprecise measure. Perhaps if you expressed it in a numerical form ie. PE or whichever metric you prefer it would calm the natives.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Thanks for your views regarding AHT's price prospects, much appreciated.

In addition I have answered DDs question on 'real value', but I'm not taking any more questions. If you persist, I'll get him asking you to explain 'Andrews Pitchfork' again!
:-)
.

[ianwwwhite] 03/4/2017 14:54

DD4
No offence, but would you kindly expand on your comments in terms of what constitutes "real value" here. You keep posting the same but aren't supporting your views.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Real Value = Fair market value minus current share price

Where fair market value is the price that a buyer would expect to pay to purchase an asset.

If you look back for example over the last two years, Ashtead’s price has tended to overshoot or undershoot what a buyer might consider a reasonable price. When such pricing anomalies occur, so does an opportunity.

For example in the last two years these are some approximate prices:
2015 Price points: Jan 1150, Aug 890, Dec 1120
I bought Jul @ 938, subsequently sold at a reasonable profit.

2016 Price points: Jan 1120, Mar 782, Dec 1570
I bought Jan @ 900, and Mar @ 822, subsequently sold at a reasonable profit.

The trick is work out what you consider ‘fair value’ and this can be a mixture of fundamental analysis, market sentiment, geopolitical events and perish the thought, gut instinct. A little basic technical analysis can help with timing, hence my interest in bracke’s work.

Finally you have asked if I hold, and the answer is yes as core holding in my portfolio. This I do not trade, hence I have two dogs in the fight, my core holding, and the odd speculative, short term purchase.

I imagine some of the other AHT aficionados are groaning at the sight of another lengthy post from me, so I suggest that we now close this topic, and for my part I propose to keep my own counsel, and not post anything further which might disturb the harmony of the AHT board.

I hope this helps.
.

[discodave4] 03/4/2017 09:25

All I can find for Pride is Rev $70m-75m.

[fenners66] 03/4/2017 08:20

Funny though that $279m acquisition is now deemed so small that there is no additional information attached.
Turnover , profitability, balance sheet?
Yes I guess in Geoff we trust , regardless I still want the financials.

[broadwood] 03/4/2017 07:06

Seems a nice fit.

Acquisition of Pride Equipment Corporation
Ashtead Group plc announces that its US business, Sunbelt Rentals, has acquired Pride Equipment Corporation for a cash consideration of $279m. Pride is a major provider of rental equipment in New York City and surrounding areas specialising largely in aerial work platforms to the construction, industrial and movie production industries.

Ashtead's chief executive Geoff Drabble, commented:
"This acquisition further enhances Sunbelt's position in the important New York City market. Pride's focus on aerial equipment is complementary to Sunbelt's capabilities in a broader range of smaller and medium size equipment and there will be significant opportunities to cross-sell to the enlarged customer base. This acquisition is consistent with our long-term strategy to take advantage of structural growth opportunities through both organic investment and bolt-on acquisitions. I would also like to welcome all of the Pride employees who will be joining Sunbelt as part of the acquisition and look forward to working with them to deliver on the major opportunities ahead."

[discodave4] 02/4/2017 14:18

Afternoon bracke :)Year end (30/4/17) forecast eps 104.4p, 5 year average PE 16.1, target price 1681, PEG 0.7.Year end (30/4/18) forecast eps 121.1p, PE 16.1, target price 1950, PEG 0.8.Price to book = 5.5xDebt Ratio = 65%

[bracke] 02/4/2017 12:56

Good day ian

One has to be very careful not to confuse thinking with opinion. Opinion is pointless unless it is based on evidence. I 'think' that I would not buy or sell AHT until it deals with the s/r it is currently resting on.

"Real value" is an imprecise measure. Perhaps if you expressed it in a numerical form ie. PE or whichever metric you prefer it would calm the natives.

[discodave4] 01/4/2017 20:37

IanNo offence, but would you kindly expand on your comments in terms of what constitutes "real value" here. You keep posting the same but aren't supporting your views. :)IMO AHT is real value even at its current price. Perhaps I'm missing something!.Are you actually in here?.DD

[ianwwwhite] 01/4/2017 19:40

RE 53608,

Ok, I am beginning to feel like the guy that farted in the lift!

If, my fellow longs, you don't think my thoughts about where AHT is heading next are not what you hoped, good luck!

I am happy to be persuaded otherwise, but won't be a buyer until I can see real value!

In the meantime I am happy to sit on the sidelines....

[ianwwwhite] 31/3/2017 18:38

Hi bracke,

Yesterdays euphoria had a short shelf life, I suspect we may still get an opportunity to top up at bargain prices next week. What do you think?

[bracke] 31/3/2017 15:46

Afternoon all

Back to the s/r zone which is holding. Probability is it will stay there 'till the close and decide next week what the next move is to be.

[ianwwwhite] 31/3/2017 10:06

DD

Lol! Happens to us all.

Looks like we are revisiting bracke's support level, where I think he indicated we should hope for a bounce. After all, it is Friday.

[discodave4] 31/3/2017 08:15

Sorry about that, as I posted the site crashed.

[ianwwwhite] 30/3/2017 22:15

DD

You can say that again! :-)
.

[discodave4] 30/3/2017 19:58

More from the Liberum note:The brokerage said its detailed analysis of management's medium-term growth plan, 'Project 2021', suggests that it is well placed to deliver 9% per annum underlying revenue growth and further improve its sector leading margin. "Our detailed analysis of this plan leaves us to believe that it is well placed to deliver on its targeted 875 stores by 2021 via a healthy combination of organic growth and bolt-on acquisitions. With the maturation of its existing footprint augmenting growth from new locations, we forecast local currency revenue growth of 9% p.a. over the FY16-20 period." With this growth funded internally, Liberum expects the leverage to reach just 1.3x in FY19, providing management with significant optionality to further accrete shareholder value. Like the last para!!DD

[discodave4] 30/3/2017 19:58

More from the Liberum note:The brokerage said its detailed analysis of management's medium-term growth plan, 'Project 2021', suggests that it is well placed to deliver 9% per annum underlying revenue growth and further improve its sector leading margin. "Our detailed analysis of this plan leaves us to believe that it is well placed to deliver on its targeted 875 stores by 2021 via a healthy combination of organic growth and bolt-on acquisitions. With the maturation of its existing footprint augmenting growth from new locations, we forecast local currency revenue growth of 9% p.a. over the FY16-20 period." With this growth funded internally, Liberum expects the leverage to reach just 1.3x in FY19, providing management with significant optionality to further accrete shareholder value. Like the last para!!DD

[discodave4] 30/3/2017 19:57

More from the Liberum note:The brokerage said its detailed analysis of management's medium-term growth plan, 'Project 2021', suggests that it is well placed to deliver 9% per annum underlying revenue growth and further improve its sector leading margin. "Our detailed analysis of this plan leaves us to believe that it is well placed to deliver on its targeted 875 stores by 2021 via a healthy combination of organic growth and bolt-on acquisitions. With the maturation of its existing footprint augmenting growth from new locations, we forecast local currency revenue growth of 9% p.a. over the FY16-20 period." With this growth funded internally, Liberum expects the leverage to reach just 1.3x in FY19, providing management with significant optionality to further accrete shareholder value. Like the last para!!DD