Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[matt123d] 23/7/2015 20:40

URI ski slope.

[clarky5150] 23/7/2015 20:00

Make that nearly 14%

[clarky5150] 23/7/2015 19:53

URI nearly 13% down. Unless it picks up before close I think 900 may be the least of our worries :(

[discodave4] 23/7/2015 18:00

IMV (slightly biased!) BofA have it wrong, tend to support Berenberg's viewpoint:22nd June 2015IN THE KNOW: Ashtead Mispriced Due To Misconceptions, Says BerenbergLONDON (Alliance News) - Berenberg raises its price target and reiterates its Buy rating on Ashtead Group, saying that misconceptions surrounding the industrial equipment rental company have driven an unwarranted de-rating. Berenberg analyst Josh Puddle notes that while Ashtead's share price rose 20% over the past 12 months, it has de-rated by 26% relative to the wider European market and, on a one-year forward price-earnings basis, shares are the cheapest they have been since November 2013. "This is particularly surprising because: 1) the company is accelerating its US share gains; and 2) the non-residential construction cycle in the US, to which Sunbelt (Ashtead's US business) is nearly 50% exposed, is starting to recover," Puddle says. The analyst says the main misconception regarding the rental equipment industry in the US is that the market is oversupplied, with some investors pointing to industry fleet investment approaching its previous peak in 2006. However, Puddle says this research ignores two important factors; the rental penetration in the US has increased significantly since 2006 and inflation. "Regarding rental penetration in the US, we estimate that it has increased from 42% in 2006 to 53% in 2014. All else being equal, this implies industry growth on average at 3.0% per year," the analyst says. "Regarding US inflation, we note it has been at an average annual rate of 2.0% from 2006-14." Another misconception, the analyst says, is the concern that the industry will redeploy oil and gas fleet to other end markets, which will put significant pressure on rates. The analyst believes that strong demand in other end-markets will be enough to absorb any spare capacity. For Ashtead specifically, there are concerns that margins at Sunbelt have peaked, but the analyst disagrees. "We are confident Sunbelt can continue to expand its margins, due largely to the importance of scale in a rental business, but also from the increasing contribution from higher-margin equipment. We estimate a group [earnings before interest, taxes, and amortisation] margin in FY 2017 of 30.4% versus 27.3% in FY 2015, which we forecast will drive a record [return on invested capital] in FY 2017 of 13.6%," Puddle says. Berenberg raises its price target to 1,350.00 pence from 1,300.00p. Ashtead is one of the best performers in the FTSE 100 at the open Monday, trading up 1.6% at 1,137.00p. By Neil Thakrar; [e-mail]; @NeilThakrar1 Copyright 2015 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

[bracke] 23/7/2015 14:11

clarky

All is not yet lost. 900 remains a possibility for the present.

[2flatpack] 23/7/2015 14:00

clarky
I've had enough buying opportunities for the time being.
cheers

[clarky5150] 23/7/2015 13:43

Damn. I was hoping your 900 was on the cards Bracke. A buy in opportunity I could never have expected 3 months ago..
These will be £12+ by Christmas.

[bracke] 23/7/2015 13:38

Good day 2flat

It's starting to appear that AHT is going to prove me wrong (not for the first time!) and fill to-days opening gap. If it goes straight on to fill yesterdays opening gap I will be truly impressed.

[2flatpack] 23/7/2015 13:19

bracke
good afternoon.
by short term do you mean today?
I had better get some stop losses on then.
as always I live in hope.
cheers

[bracke] 23/7/2015 11:02

Oooo! that's nasty!!

Another 'chunky' gap. I suspect that the two gaps will not be filled in the short term. Why you may ask. The share price has broken below the last two swing lows which indicates a reversal not a retrace. The next swing low is at 900 so it may want to test that level. The lower parallel from the Median is also at 900 so it may support

[hjs] 23/7/2015 09:56

Billy
I have bought and sold AHT on a number of occassions and like you I bought again and since then it has dropped. BoAML analyst has expressed his own opinion and the share price has dropped and again dropped today after United results yesterday. Same thing happened in May when URI announced results. I am sure AHT is doing fine and in a few weeks time everybody will forget and the share price will move north as analyst will suggest it is undervalued.

Most likely this share has been shorted but would be happy if someone on this BB can confirm if they have access to this data.

I am happy to hold.

[billy ray] 23/7/2015 09:36

Morning all

Well, I'm really glad I bought in last Friday... only 10% down in a week!! (Maybe the drop is all my fault, I do seem to have a reverse Midas touch with most stocks I go for!?). I'd been watching AHT for a while and thought I'd done well buying in below the 200dSMA, but shows what I know.

So slightly annoying entry, but still happy to hold this one, hopefully this is a just a blip.

Regards to all
Billy

[topicel] 23/7/2015 08:35

Snap! If we get that rating on a day like today, clearly related to URI results, then we have plenty of hope.

The question of a share buyback programme here could be a very interesting one...

Topicel

[bigboots] 23/7/2015 08:34

Great report in the Torygraph this morning on ASHTEAD

[2flatpack] 23/7/2015 08:11

OUCH !
These falling knives are sharp.
Cheers

[loss-leader] 23/7/2015 08:10

To my surprise - triggered by a speculative limit - I'm In!

LL

[topicel] 23/7/2015 08:09

Blimey, not a good start then!

Topicel

[topicel] 23/7/2015 08:00

URI firming overnight, no just down 1.45% in after hours trading...

I still reckon the results are fine and the improved share buyback programme will assist the stock as Wall Street wakes up for the Opening Bell.

Whatever, if we assume the news leaked in any way then our fall yesterday should be priced in. Watching closely because regardless of what Jefferies have said about £13.85 target, the consensus among all brokers covering AHT suggests way above £10, with an average around £11.75 or so.

Just because we are exposed greatly in the States isn't a great problem aside from the currency's strength, but hopefully that will have been hedged sufficiently by the BoD now....

Topicel

[bigboots] 23/7/2015 07:19

UNDERVALUED OR WHAT.....

23 Jul 2015 Ashtead Group PLC AHT Jefferies International Buy 1,007.00 1,007.00 1,385.00 1,385.00 Reiterates

[deadcatbounce] 22/7/2015 23:54

Clarky posted
"I am worried tho that they might have sight of URI info before us. Im sure the FSA have a name for that...."

Seems like you were right.

[discodave4] 22/7/2015 22:47

URI Q2 Results:Michael Kneeland, chief executive officer of United Rentals, said, "We solidly improved our profitability in the second quarter year-over-year, with record results for second quarter EBITDA margin and adjusted EPS. Demand for our equipment is clearly there, and our industry is expected to benefit from solid growth in the years ahead as oil drilling stabilizes and rental fleet is absorbed. Industry experts are projecting years of growth ahead, led by the ongoing rebound in non-residential construction. Given this outlook, and our ability to drive profitable growth and returns, we are accelerating our current $750 million share repurchase program and announcing an additional $1 billion repurchase program. These decisions underscore our commitment to return capital and deliver value to our stockholders."DD